Poker Math - What they don't get

[Kurn]

One point I've made about SNG play has always been that to play SNGs regularly, you must have a thick skin, because intelligent ICM play will often lead to you being berated. Case in point.

FT SNG earlier this evening, 3 handed (approx chip counts)

150/300

Button: 8500
SB: Stinky Devil 2600
BB: 2400

BB's Sharkscope shows a 34% ROI, 146 SNGs, $14 abi.

OK, this guy may or may not be good, too few games to tell, but we know one thing, he THINKS he's good. In fact, he's SURE he's good.

Button folds, Stinky shoves with J T, BB has seen Stinky shove a few times, calls and turns over A 7

Stinky flops a T and villain gets no help and is done.

From the rail he says:

"Really sick."
"The luck of the dumb."

Stinky of course does not reply.

Now ask yourself this. Had Stinky shoved with AKo and villain had called with QQ and Stinky spiked an A, what would villain have said? I'll guess "nh, gg."

What's wrong with this?

AKo is a 57:43 dog vs QQ.
JTo is a 55:45 dog vs A7o

Go back and read that again. Your opponents are clueless as to the actual math of the game. So when they call you an idiot, don't listen to them.

[Wes]

instead of ignoring them challenge them to hu and you would be just like me

[PShabi]

hahahahaha

[Talking Poker]

Sooooooooooooooo many people do not understand the math of this game (myself included to some extend - I mean, I "get it," but not everything all the time). This is a great example.

[Windbreaker]

These situations are pretty standard in mtt sngs. They happen several times over the course of one. The math in this particular situation is rather straight forward.

The more interesting math occurs in spots where you call off your chips. Weather you're a big stack or short stack, one of the biggest edges you can pick up in a SNG is knowing what spots to be calling people's shove with. Far too many people have little insight in these spots and play it improperly.

I have never really used an ICM calculator before. I think all these tools and programs that tell you what you should do are great when you can accurately input the information. However, I'm sure there's a lot of people that misuse these calculators. For me, I think I have a great understanding of what other players are doing and how good my cards are relative to their pushing range. I also understand fundamental tournament strategy/structure better than most players.

Some people don't realize that calling all off your chips as a 2 to 1 dog is sometimes far better off than folding and blinding yourself out. You have to understand your stack size to blind ratio, and risk-reward factor when you know you are making very -EV, but +ICM calls.

[Talking Poker]

I would really like it if you would make a SNG video for us. The same goes for Kurn, too. I dopn't even plau SNGs, but I'd love to hear what you guys are thinking while you play these...

[Kurn]

Couldn't agree more. Mid-late stage SNG play is primarily playing relative stack sizes, not just relative to the blinds, but to each other as well.

I don't use ICM calculators either. I understand the basic concept, and the fine adjustment you need to make the calculator be a +EV tool over a basic conceptual understanding is, IMO, just way too fine to spend the mental energy.

In its simplest form, when deciding when to push/call, I ask myself these two simple questions. Opponent will push/call with Ax, so what is the lower limit of x, and he will push/call with AA-yy, so what is the lower limit of y.

In a basic sense, the unpaired non-ace hands in his range become somewhat irrelevant, because you should rarely open up your range to include a lower value of x because you will not be adding sufficient equity vs KT/QJ type hands to warrant expanding your range when not short or giant stacked.

Also note the above does not include bvb at the bubble since the basic ICM rule of "you cover, you shove" applies and your cards are irrelevant

The math needed to understand the concept is not rocket science.

Unpaired offsuit cards vs unpaired offsuit cards:

Your highest card < than opponent's lowest card: 2:1 dog

Your highest card < than opponent's lowest card > your lowest card: 3:2 dog

Opponet's highest card > Both your cards > opponent's lowest card: 11:9 dog

[Talking Poker]

I think you have a typo here. I've always thought in terms of 70/30 (dominated), 65/35, 60/40, and 55/45 for the most common situations, but same thing, really. It's just easier for me to remember the 5% shift in each situation, and while 2:1 and 3:2 work out in my head nicely, 11:9 does not.

[Kurn]

Your highest card < than opponent's lowest card > your lowest card: 3:2 dog

I'm thinking of you have, say, KJ vs AQ. Your high card is greater than his low card which is greater than your low card.

[Talking Poker]

Greater than : >
Less than : <

[Kurn]

Dyslexia srtikes again!

[PShabi]

Please fill in the village idiot:

What is ICM?

[Talking Poker]

I will let Kurn tackle this. It's quite awesome, but somewhat complex. Has to do with chip values in SNGs, so us cash game folks don't really have to worry about it. But guys like Kurn and Windbreaker who can master it can grind out pretty nice profits playing SNGs in the long run.

Did you guys know Windbreaker is considered one of the best 45 man tourney players out there? I didn't, until I caught people talking about him at PTP. Pretty sweet.

[Windbreaker]

I wouldn't say I'm an expert with ICM. ICM stands for independent chip model. In a cash game, every chip is worth face value. In a tournament, this is not the same.

What the ICM does is factors in the prize distribution in comparison to your relative chip stack versus the other players still in the tournament.

This provides you with your current equity in a tournament.

Knowing your current equity in the tournament, your hole cards, and estimating your opponents calling range....you can find small edges by learning proper pushing/folding strategy in later stages of a tournament. This also works if you are the caller instead of the person shoving.

Having said all that, I have never used an icm calculator before in my life. When you are playing, you generally just need to estimate your general hand value vs your opponent(s).

In general, weak players either open shove or fold too much or too little. And also don't call often enough (especially from the blinds and late position).

[Kurn]

To add to what Windbreaker says, ICM was developed the end result a research paper (may have been an advanced degree thesis, but I'm not sure) at The University of Southern California.

A simple training program for ICM can be downloaded through

SNGs are unique in that you will be at or near the bubble much more often than in MTTs, and that you and your opponents will rarely have sufficient chips for multi-street play.

With blinds high vs stack sizes, ICM takes into account the importance of fold equity in calculating the overall equity of your hand hot and cold. To use ICM well, you need to be pretty accurate in determing your opponents' push/call ranges.

Real ICM wonks can qoute you EV numbers for given ranges vs estimated opponents' ranges. I can't do that. What I do understand is the logic, for example, fold equity varies based on relative stack sizes, so the same opponent will call a shove with a much wider range than you'd expect if his stack is much larger/much smaller than yours.

My favorite counter-intuitive example is the bvb situation where the SB shoves any two cards. When the blinds are high, this move is always +CEV because the BB will fold x% of hands. The BB can never adopt a strategy that will make the move -CEV, the best he can do is reduce the CEV to 0 by calling with any two cards..

[Invigilator]

Although I understand this, it still gives me a headache.

[Talking Poker]

Would studying ICM help with my HU SNG play?

[Windbreaker]

It can't hurt, but it will only have a minimal to no impact on your play. In heads up sngs, you probably should play normal to start...then when blinds get high, just push every small edge you can.

[Kurn]

I would think it would only be marginally valuable. HU is a different animal.