30 day $5k from 5.50 and under SNG prop bet...

[Talking Poker]

Is it possible for one person to win $5000 in 30 days, playing $5.50 and less SNGs ONLY, and excluding 180 mans?

I'm thinking no.

So what kind of odds what you put on it? 3:2? 2:1? 5:1? What?

[Windbreaker]

This would definately be extremely hard. I play 5 table SNGs, where my ROI is usually a lot greater than for a 1 table SNG. My best ever 500 SNG stretch gave me a return of slightly above 50% ROI....this was at $60 dollar buy ins. In one month I'm guessing I can get in about 1200 SNGs. At that rate, there's no way you would get it for $5.50s.

Even though the competition would be a lot easier, the only way you can possibly make that much is to run good for a long stretch and play high volume. Unless it's a SNG icons guy or one of the more respected SNG players, I don't see many guys can pull this off and even if they do....the prop bet must be huge in order for them to even want to follow through.

The odds I would give, depends on the player. Some guys can play 24 tables at once....those guys....I would give a lot less action, than a regular joe. For a normal player...3:1 ball park would be my guess.

[Talking Poker]

Any other thoughts on this?

Dude is offering 2:1 that he can do it. In other words, bet $200 against him to win $100 if he fails. All money is being escrowed ahead of time and he's even got a webcam set up.

I'm in for AT LEAST $200, but I'm seriously considering making this a big bet.

I think even a SNG sicko could only pull this off one month in 4 (3:1), at the best.

is the thread, if anyone wants to read more about it or get in on the action. He's only going to run this if he stands to win at least $5k ($10k wagered), and it's not there yet.

[2Tone]

Do you know/trust the guy? Winning that amount at those stakes in 30 days strikes as extremely unlikely. I'm shocked he'd be offering 2:1 -- 8:1 to 10:1 would seem more realistic to me.

My only caution would be the "too good to be true" factor and the amount he wants to bet -- $5k is decent amount, enough to go through a fair amount of trouble to set people up for. What is the risk this is an elaborate scam?

[melioris]

I agree with 2tone, this has to be some kind of angle shoot.

[Talking Poker]

0% chance it's a scam in the stealing people's money regard. He's having one of the mosty trusted people on the site hold all money (both sides) in escrow. That guy has like $44k staked out right now, so if he were to roll, the 5 or 10 or 15k from this would be fully recoverable from his investments.

So it's a 0% roll risk.

The only thinkg I'm worried about is if he has figured out some sort of loophole that is going to allow him to do that that no one has thought of. I just have to think SOMEONE would have figured it out by now. There was concern about the 180s, so he said he won't play any of them.

If anyone wants action on this and doesn't have an account there yet, I can do it for you (this will likely start before you get your account approved to post there). I'm in for $200 to win $100 right now, and amd still seriously considering increasing it. I keep thinking I must be missing something, but can't figure what it is.

[Windbreaker]

Seems like you're getting way the best of it to me.

If you look at Spacegravy's sharkscope (he's a SNG Icon guy who is well ahead of pace for SNE this year), the most SNGs he played in a month is less than 3500.

Even if the guy can play that much, he needs an ROI of 26% in order for him to pull it off.

In addition, he stipulates that all tourneys are 5.50 or below. This eliminates the 6.50 buy in for 45 man SNGs...this is a huge disadvantage against him.

Too me...looking at his his OPR and Sharkscope, there is almost no way he can pull this off without some angleshoot.

I think if you use the sharkscope leaderboard....you can tell this task is nearly impossible without insane volume.

[thrash1294]

DID he state that he would only play single table sngs?
Also what if he played in a$5.50 sng to satty to a mtt then cashed big in that?would that count?

[Talking Poker]

I agree completely. I think I'm gonna bump up to $500 myself. Want some action?

It's not an angleshoot (that I can think of). The money is safe, it will be him playing (webcam), etc. I think he really thinks he can do it.

[Talking Poker]

Go read the .

No sattys. No MTTs (well, MTT SNGs, like 45 mans, but not true large field MTTs). Not even 180s.

[Talking Poker]

I PM'd a guy who was thinking about betting the max $2k and opted to not bet at all to ask him why. He replied with this:

I'm not sure about that math because I don't know how many SNGs one can play per hour, even if you are playing 25 at once, for example.

[thrash1294]

It would take more than one single person playing under the screen name. A man has to sleep but a bot does not
so running at an roi of 33% at single table sngs you would have to play aroun 2800 games. So thats aboout 95 a day plalying five at a time average time an hour per game 20hrs a day 4 hours of sleep a day.
Throw in some 45 man sngs.So the math says it can be done.But it would be hard to run that good for so long.

[Talking Poker]

He will have a web cam set up - it's just him.

But why would he only play 5 at a time and not like 20 at a time, so he could play 1/4 as many hours per day?

Looking at the sharkscope leaderboard for "Any Game, $2.50-5.00, Avg. Profit for last 500 games," The top 20 list makes from $6.02 to $4.35 per game. Those are pretty sick numbers, but that's only a 500 game sample. #4 on the list is $5, btw. But let's just say this guy can somehow sustain $4 per game for 30 days (possible? I highly doubt it, but I don't know). To reach $5k, he'd need to get 1250 SNGs in. That's actually only 42 per day, which should be very doable.

I don't know. I don't think that's the best way to approach it though, because those numbers are unrealistic. I don't know what kind of ROI is sustainable playing so many tables for so many days. But if we go with a 30% ROI, that's only $1.65 per SNG, meaning he'd need to get in over 3000 of them.

Can you play 100 per day and maintain a 30% ROI?

I guess it's possible. Sure seem like it would be hell though. I'm pretty sure my money is safe. He'll crack at some point.

[thrash1294]

ooooh the pressure
I would break roi to hard to maintain multi tabling

[sjay2k]

i think this is doable

[Windbreaker]

I would have to look at it a bit more before making the bet.

The only angle shooting I can think of right now is that he states that he needs to profit $5000.00 or more by the 30 days. Well technically, he should win a few of the Battle of the Planets awards as a result of playing so much. It should be easy for him to post a high score on the High Orbit leader board for the two smaller buy in levels each week this runs. I'm not sure if in the rules this would count or not.

Aside from that, there's a few poor calculations. The 20% ROI over 6.5 hours a day is not realistic to achieve the $5000 goal over one month.

This assumes he's getting this ROI averaging 24 tables over that 6.5 hours. If any of you have actually tried playing 24 tables at once, (I have), your ROI will simply have to decrease as the table increase - unless you're use to it. Looking at his OPR and Sharkscope, I see no indication that he has ever been able to put in the volume like Spacegravy.

Also, the stipulation that all tourneys are held at $5.50 and under means that he can not play any $6.50 turbos for 45 player SNGs. He must play either $5 dollar regular SNGs and/or $3.25/45s.

Playing at regular SNGs slows down your hourly rate by quite a lot in a 45 man SNG - which hurts when volume - and that is the key for him to pull this off.

The only other thing I can think of right now, is that maybe he's really good at heads up SNGs? He would be able to play the 32 man heads up SNGs and profit a lot like that?

Other than that, I don't like his chances. Is this possible to do? For certain people I think they have a chance - like close to 1:1. From his past performance and all indications - it's highly unlikely.

[2Tone]

Maybe. But reading the PTP thread, it strikes me as tremendously –EV for msusyr24.

Consider this very likely scenario. This guy, a very talented SNG player, grinds and grinds, eight, ten, 12 hours a days, playing 15 tables at a time. He makes upwards of 4k in the first 25 days, a remarkable achievement at these levels. But he hits a downswing, and ends up winning "only" about $3500 in 30 days.

He finishes the month completely burnt out on poker. And instead of having won enough for a nice vacation to recharge his batteries, he’s in the hole for $1500.

If he has the roll and talent to do something like this, why not play a reasonable amount of $100 SNGs? He could well make as much if not more, and much less risk of losing his mind.

I'm also reminded of this guy, who pulled it off ...

[Gordogg]

I don't see how that's humanly possible. I'd definitely take that bet.

[jhill3535]

I don't know if you saw it yet TP, but he changed the escrowing of the funds. Now if you have 10x the wager amount invested in the site you don't have to escrow, but he will still escrow 100% of his portion. This alleviates all the "money better used elsewhere" arguments.

That being said I just doubled down on my bet to $400.

I can see him hitting $2500 in the first 2 weeks, but I think the last week or 2 will kill him.

I am wondering though a bit about the BOP, as I don't think anyone has considered that. He does state in the official rules however that "Sharkscope will be used to verify everything." BOP winnings will not show up in SS, so I don't think he can use that to his advantage.

[jhill3535]

Also, I think that pretty much everyone that has been winning the BOP has been playing 18 mans. I don't think anyone has won any at these lower levels playing 9 mans or 45 mans. He might be able to hit the high orbit with the 45s, but I don't know.

[Talking Poker]

BOP shouldn't count (per his SS comment), but we should confirm that. He can't count that, FPPs, RB, Bonuses or anything like that. This is purely SNG profit.

And that's cool about not having to escrow. Good move on his part. I have more than 50x my bet amount invested, so I should be good to go.

[Wes]

Grinder today, legend forever

[Talking Poker]

Confirmed:

I increased my bet to $300 and am tempted to go to 5.

None of you want in on this? Yes, I think it's POSSIBLE he can do this, but I think it's FAR more unlikely that 2:1.

[Windbreaker]

jhill3535 - I don't think you understand how the BOP promo works. 45 man SNGs never counts in the promotion. However, it would pretty easy for any good player to make the top ten of the BOP high orbit with massive amounts of volume. Most people might be able to put in 100 SNGs for an orbit once in a week....for a high volume player, you probably could put in six or seven - makes it relatively easy to cash in the high orbit.

Looking at this now, I still don't like his chances at all. There are a few players out there that I have no questions that are better than even money on this wager. Eg. All the Supernova Elite SNG players, QuasiFiction and his brother DNA2RNA, and some of the SNG Icon players, etc.

Having said that, I'm probably going to pass on this bet. I would only want to make a large bet in order for this to be really worthwhile. I'm sure you guys are getting the best of this bet. Not many people can increase the volume of tables/hands so quickly and win at a significantly high rate. Also the 45-man SNGs won't be the deciding factor as to weather he wins this bet or not. The tables take quite some time to get started, the variance is high, and it takes a lot longer to finish than a single table tournament. To give you an example, over my hottest stretch over 500 games, I had a ROI slightly over 50%. At the 5 dollar level - that would only make him $1375. This would also take a lot longer to play out as the $5.50/45 players are regular speed SNGs. If he's winning this bet, it's definately not going to be a result of the 45s.

[Wes]

Any idea how big of a grinder this guy is before this? If he's used to playing a ton, I wouldn't bet against him. If not, I will.