You are a bad player. Trust me on this.

[Talking Poker]

Ok, maybe you're not "bad," but you're not as good as you think you are.

Have you ever noticed how virtually all poker players think they are good poker players? Have you ever noticed how players that you are 100% sure are BAD players - big time LOSING players - honestly believe they are good? If they aren't in complete denial about their losses (losing players usually don't keep records), they chalk their losing up to bad luck. Why is this?

I have a theory. I think it's easier to spot a player that is worse than you than it is to spot a player who is better than you. It's easy to see people make -EV moves that you understand, but it's difficult to recognize good moves that you don't yet comprehend. Because of this phenomenon, I think Joe Poker Player can easily look around and spot a bunch of bad players, so he therefore assumes he must be a good player. Well, I've got news for him: He's not.

I think this applies to everyone. Take me, for example. One year ago, I thought I was a pretty good poker player, and I was (I have the records to prove it). But I can say with certainty that I am a better player now. It would be silly for me to think I won't continue to get better in the future, so I'm sure I still have a lot of room to grow, even though I don't necessarily see it right now. Over time, we start to understand more subtle plays and plug the minor leaks in our games. I've done quite a bit of this over the past year, and I hope I continue to do so in the future.

Anyone can spot a complete fish. For a long time now, I've been able to sit down at a poker table and very quickly spot the hotshot who think's he is God's gift to poker, but in reality is far from it. Maybe his play isn't the worst I have ever seen, but it's still BAD. He still make fundamental mistakes. I'm sure this guy is a losing player. We all know the type. Sometimes it's quite comical.... I especially like when the hotshot feels the need to rip into the players who are worse than him - the ones who are making massive -EV plays. I admit, I've let my frustration get the best of me in the past, but this is a TERRIBLE idea. Talk about -EV! You WANT to play with the fish. Don't scare them off, and don't educate them. Just sit there and ride it out and you'll get paid off in the long run. If you must blow off some steam, do what I do - go off on the guy who is ripping into your fish.

Anyway, back to what I was saying...... In addition to spotting all the losing players, I am now easily able to spot winning players who aren't as good as I am - guys with minor leaks in their game. They are solid players and I'm sure they can grind out winning sessions, but they still have room to improve. I used to be one of these guys.

The point is, I am sure there are people who play with me who see leaks in my game that I don't see myself (yet). I'm a good poker player, but I'm not the best. Far from it, in fact. With experience, I hope to continue to improve my game. Someday, I want to be able to sit down at almost any poker table and KNOW that I am the best player there. But in the mean time, I'm happy to admit that I still have room to grow.

I think poker players would be doing themselves a favor if they would realize (admit) one simple thing: You're not as good as you think you are.

[GeoffM]

So basically, if you can spot a gay person, it doesn't make you any less gay ?

[Penguinfan]

I remember an interviews during the 03 WSOP with Dutch Boyd when he said "poker is like sex, everyone thinks their the best but in reality they really don't know what they are doing". Seems true enough.

As for myself, I have readily admitted I am a break even to losing player still. I have moments where I just think I am the unluckiest player alive, I remember a stretch or 14 straight SNG's where I busted out holding the best hand when the chips went in the pot.

Just yesterday in a rebuy game I had around 6K in chips after the first hour (buy in, immediate rebuy, add on all 1000, 1000, 1500) and in about 20 hands I had AK beaten by AQ, got KK twice and rand head first into pocket A's both times. I think everyone from Joe Dumbass to Doyle himself busts out of that game given those hands, thats just plain bad luck, but I understand it happens.

My game has certainly improved in the aspect that I don't bust out with hands that I used to and I am able to lay down hands like AJ pre-flop if the situation dictates, that may not sound like much, but it's a big step for alot of players.

I said all that to say this, I still think bad luck plays a big factor in my game. I know you just said that bad players blame bad luck, and maybe your right, maybe I am still a bad player and have a long way to go, but if the coin landed on heads as often as it did tales they would be writing articles about me in Card Player magazine.

[PShabi]

I had a guy at my table yesterday with a VP$IP of about 60% and a PFR% of 28 saying, "unreal what people will call a raise with."

[PShabi]

I think this theory goes with life in general. I've had a "4 year rule" for some time now.

Goes like this:

When I was 17, I thought I knew everything.

At 21, I realized I didn't know shit at 17.

Then you look back and you're 25, and you realize how stupid you were at 21.

In a couple years, I'll look back at 25 and realize I didn't know a damn thing about life.

And on it goes.

[GeoffM]

You know, I'm finding it very eerie that nobody has had any insight into my comment yet .

Anyhow, it is because of the fish that I decided to start bonus-whoring. It is actually proper to play loose when there are more fish at the table, but I have never been able to get myself into that type of mindset. For example, last night I was playing that MTT, and I was at the table with the eventual chip leader the entire time. While I was seeing close to 25% of the flops, I believe he was seeing upwards of 80%. This guy was winning with some of the crappiest cards I have ever seen. Seeing people like this have so much success has really turned me off of the 10-handed tables in the past, and it may very well put me back at 6-max where I think I had most of my success, even if only on a short-term basis.

With online poker comes online luck, simple as that. You have AA UTG and push a significant raise, and have 6-7 fish behind you, you will be a dog if these goofs decide to call. IMO luck is the single biggest factor in online poker, as reads are hard. How do you read a guy who could be whacking off to a porno and playing poker at the same time? You can't physically see him sitting at his monitor so how do you read facials and other things? Maybe he is a good poker player who just happened to get excited at the same time he was dealt 7-2o .

[Talking Poker]

You don't need "reads" to be a winning player. Sure, they help you make those close call decisions in live games, but not so much online. Online, betting patterns are your tells.

You need to get out of the "it's just luck" mindset. Yes, that one time you have AA and get 6 callers you might not win. But deal that same scenario out 1000 times, and you will be WELL AHEAD after all the hands play out.

When I play limit cash game poker, my game becomes very mechanical. Sure, I taylor it a bit based on the table condition and my opponents, but against the average guy, my play doesn't change much based on tells, hunches, whatever. I simply keep trying to make +EV moves, and in the long run, I get paid off.

Poker is about making the correct long term decisions and making your opponents make mistakes. Make less mistakes than your opponents do, and you'll be a winning player. It's as simple as that.

Long term, long term, long term.

[Penguinfan]

I just don't know about that. Especally when it comes to tournaments that aren't much more than blind races.

Look at the $200+15 at RNG Stars, one you made the final table almost nobody has more than 12-14 BB's and ante's. How much skill could one possibly posess to outplay the other 8 players in that situation?

That is just an all-in fest and luckiest guy wins. Certainly it takes skill to get that far, but you need more luck than the other guys as well, or at the very least less bad luck.

When you see people playing absolute rags for tons of chips and catching miracle cards you just can't sell me on the fact that luck doesn't control the majority of outcomes.

I am not even saying it is on-line poker, it's just the game in general, some people are luckier than others.

[Penguinfan]

Hand #7878796-79 at Mon2pmB-010 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 22/Aug/05 15:27:44

wardo71 is at seat 0 with 4035.
ontopher is at seat 1 with 6980.
ocscienceguy is at seat 2 with 0 (sitting out).
lado76 is at seat 3 with 575.
chengong is at seat 4 with 3065.
Topcntrlr is at seat 5 with 4885.
Iron_City is at seat 6 with 2575.
penguinfan is at seat 8 with 2685.
PopsH515 is at seat 9 with 3530.
The button is at seat 4.

Topcntrlr posts the small blind of 75.
Iron_City posts the big blind of 150.

wardo71: -- --
ontopher: -- --
lado76: -- --
chengong: -- --
Topcntrlr: -- --
Iron_City: -- --
penguinfan: Kd Ad
PopsH515: -- --

Pre-flop:

penguinfan raises to 525. PopsH515 folds. wardo71
folds. ontopher folds. lado76 calls. chengong
folds. Topcntrlr folds. Iron_City folds.

Flop (board: 9h 2h 5c):

penguinfan bets 150. lado76 goes all-in for 50.
penguinfan is returned 100 (uncalled).

Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

lado76 shows Ts Ah.
penguinfan shows Kd Ad.


Turn (board: 9h 2h 5c Td):

(no action in this round)


River (board: 9h 2h 5c Td 4c):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

lado76 has Ts Ah 9h 5c Td: a pair of tens.
penguinfan has Kd Ad 9h 5c Td: ace high.


Hand #7878796-79 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
lado76 wins 1375 with a pair of tens.
----------------------------------------------------------------



For those wondering about the small bet at the flop, it's because it was me and one other person and he only had 50 chips left.

A beautiful 3-outer, AND THE COIN LANDS ON TAILS AGIAN!!!!

Not about luck my ass.

[GeoffM]

I agree whole-heartedly with what PenguinFan said regarding the tournaments.

I'll tell you guys right now, that tournament I was in last night, if I sat down with these guys and played a limit tourney with say set blinds of $0.25/0.50 or whatever and we all sat down with $100, then I guarantee I am paying $100 rake and taking the other $900 off the table. The fact all the other donkeys at the table were just giving each other their chips led to my downfall, because while I did have a great hand when I busted (I held A357, flop came 46K), I was screwed. The donkey I referred to above that ended up being chip leader had A6710, and was calling me with a pair of sixes. Looking at my hand, I had the huge wrap with a very good low draw that would have held up had any low card hit. Insteadh, the jackass spikes a 10 on the turn and a 9 comes on the river and he takes a huge pot while I almost punch my computer. You guys, I see you a lot of times posting bad beats when you had 10-12 outs, but unless I've gone insane, I knew in this hand I needed any 8, 7, 5, 3, 2 for the scoop and any A would have given me at least half. Not including this bastards hand, I had 17 outs AFTER the flop at the scoop and 20 outs to at least half the pot. This is after the flop. What would that make me, about a 70% favorite to hit one of these on either the turn or river?

I know online poker is more than just luck, but sometimes those MASSIVE draws just don't hit. The only reason I get pissed is because it seems all-too-often lately some guy will be a huge dog to me and low-and-behold, he somehow catches the "Miracle on 34th Street" and takes the pot. I don't mean to sound like Helmuth when I say "If there was no luck in poker I'd win every tourney", because noone is good enough to win every tourney, but I just think that in general a lot of times odds don't necessarily hold up. I can't remember how many times in the last 2 weeks my 20+ outers have not hit (and yes, in O8 it is very common to have 20+ outers). I can guarantee however that they haven't been hitting at the 70% or whatever clip that they should be.

Mind you, I guess I shouldn't bitch too much, since I am in the green (or black, or whatever), but sometimes I just start to think what might have been had this or that not happened.

[Penguinfan]

Geoff, funny you should bring up Omaha Hi/lo, I was playing earlier in a $25 PLO ring game and one hand that sticks out (for reasons I probably shouldn't mention) is when I holding ATJ8 in the BB and flop is AAT, I slow play it, turn is 6 if I remember right and I bet the pot, get called, the river is a 8 so I go from nut full to nut fuller (?) and push the pot again, get called by someone with a naked ace in his hand, BUT we split because he has like 90th best low hand.

I got him to make a horrible call based on the way I played a previous hand and still had to split it, that one sucked.

Though I am sure he doesn't remember it that way and probably thinks he played it just fine.

[GeoffM]

Got a hand history for me?

I've for the most part managed to stay away from chopping pots in PL for some reason. However, as per the above mentioned scenario I found myself it, I can also often lose a lot of bets making the correct mathematical call.

Give me some more details on the hand. How many callers pre-flop? Blinds? Pot size post-flop?

[johnp158]

If you really think this, why play? Yes, each single tournament involves a lot of luck, and obviously cash games involve luck as well, but you can't really believe that it's JUST luck. You're really willing to keep throwing money into tournaments while you honestly believe that it's just a crapshoot? Like TP is saying, you've gotta operate under the idea that it's about long-term results, and getting your money in with the best hand. For instance, when Geoff talks about getting AA and getting 6 callers, yes, you're a dog to win the pot, but you only need to be 15% to win to make money! If you're 40% to win, you should be making huge amounts of money with aces. I hate when people make commments like "uh oh, AA again. How much am I going to lose here?" That thinking is just so wrong.

Maybe it's easy for me to say this because I've been on a pretty good run playing NL cash games, I don't know. Even with tournaments, which most people agree are not a great way to make steady money, it's like Harrington says: Force your opponents to make the wrong decisions, without the proper odds. If you're doing this, you should be fine. I haven't played nearly enough tournaments to know what it's like to go on huge losing runs, but obviously there are people out there who are doing something right.

I hope I'm not coming across too strong here. I know that you guys don't bitch all the time, but this stuff does seem to be bothering you. You (me too) just have to remember that it's about making the best decisions over and over, and exploiting your big edges whenever you can.

[GeoffM]

John, I'm not trying to bitch, I just think I sometimes get a little greedy .

By the by, I have never posted a bad beat story, that has to count for something .

[Talking Poker]

Good post, john.

At the risk of oversimplifying this:
-Yes, of course there is luck in poker, especially in the short term.
-In the long run though, "luck" evens out for everyone (even you, Penguinfan), and the most skilled players end up with the most money.

It's that simple.

As for how long it takes to reach the long run, I don't have an answer for you, but I can tell you it's one hell of a lot longer than ONE HAND... so I'm sorry, but Exhibit A is inadmissible. Submit 50,000 hands worth of Poker Tracker stats and show me how you only get AA 1 in every 500 hands and when you do, show me that you only win with it 10% of the time. THAT, I will accept as evidence.

I will also likely show you how badly you played your AA, whether you were limping in with it, folding it preflop because you think it's "unlucky" or whatever, but at least we will have real, concrete evidence to work with.

[Penguinfan]

I only posted that HH because it happened as I was reading this thread.

[Penguinfan]

Are UB HH's stored on your computer somewhere?

[Penguinfan]

Same reason I get out of bed in the morning, I hope God is looking the other way and I can sneak one through one of these days.

[BlackCoffee]

Im a poor player in the grand scheme of things. Im not a good NL player and am scared to play high stakes. I just truck along at limit 1-2 or 2-4 and try to enjoy the game and make a bit of fishes.

PS: Play Swedes! Living in Sweden! They're the worse ever.. bet anything, fish anything..

[Penguinfan]

So when you lose with AA you played it wrong, but the guy who called with KJ and catches a flop of KJ7 played it brilliantly?


I think this very well sums up on-line poker.

[Aequitas58]

Lol.

[Talking Poker]

I don't know. Did you fail to raise preflop and let him flop his two pair for free? That was my point. One hand <> Long term.

You seem to be very selectively reading what I have been writing. I don't know how to say any more clearly that YES, I agree with you - there is a lot of short term luck involved in poker! That's the nature of the game. And yes, I believe that ONE HAND counts as the short term.

Instead of retyping what you selectively replied to, I'll just go ahead and quote it, and clarify/highlight the key points.

You're not seriously going to claim to be a losing player with AA over the long run (your entire poker career), are you?

[PShabi]

From what I've been reading, 50k is jack shit as well.

On 2+2, there were several posters who have a winrate of 2+BB in LHE who were talking about breakeven streaks in the 50-60k hand range.

Makes me feel better and foolish at the same time about stressing over my teenie-weenie 1BB/100 over 20k.

[Talking Poker]

I agree. 50k is still not statistically speaking the long term, but it is certainly better than examining a single hand, or worse yet, using one's selective memory (it's much easier to remember bad beats than it is all the times you win with the best hand) to analyze a non-random group of hands.

That's why I said let's look at some real number. Show me 100k Poker Tracker hands and we'll be even better off. Show me 1 million, and dare I say, you've reached the long term.

[junYUN]

yeah ive almost completely stopped playing online poker.. its a complete crapshoot sometimes. i'm not blaming luck completely, but there are TONS of idiot players (not that im the best -- but i can hold my own at a table) and bad beats are as common as HPV.

i feel like live games are less "crazy".. whether that means anything i have no idea.. but a lot of the times i feel online poker is a little screwy.