NFL Week 3

[GeoffM]

Early looks:

Chicago -3 @ Minnesota - I would bet the farm on this. My book currently shows the spread at -3, paying -125, so I am willing to wait for an extra -0.5 hoping the money pays better.

Suicide pick of the week: Miami
Tennessee has looked absolutely terrible this year so far, and Miami goes home in search of its first win. Look for Ronnie Brown to put up big numbers in this game and Miami wins in a walk.

[omahilo]

I was thinking Miami as well in my survival league... I think I will end up picking them.

I just hope Tennessee doesnt decide to show up.

[Talking Poker]

I liked Chicago last week and I love them this week. Will be interestd to see if Penguin agrees.

[Zybomb]

Not that Im as big of an expert as Penguin is...

but in general beware of Road favorites. Minnisota has looked very good this year (granted not anywhere as good as the bears), but I ask you guys to remember the Bear/Steeler game last year where the Bears were +6 on the road and no one could understand it (Pitt had just finished getting beaten by Indy and was a .500 team I believe vs the best D in the league). You figure that if you could buy 1.5 points and move this spread to over a TD (+7.5) you couldn't lose.... Penguin warned to stay away from the game.... and it ended with a 10 pt Steeler victory (it may have been 14 i dont recall)

On the flip side, Rex Grossman has looked great this year, although it's unknown if that will continue , and the D has looked terriffic as well.

I like the Miami game a lot more personally, particularly at home vs a bad team and with a tight division (2-0, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1) where a win would do big things.... but I'd want that spread under 10

[GeoffM]

Zy, Miami is 0-2.

[eejit101]

Chigago at -3, come on, that has to be a big bet game, i might even buy the half point just incase, dunno if thats worth it.

advice?

[Defendant]

How bout Panthers Buccs UNDER 34.5 ? Those teams are seriously bad at putting up any offense this year.
Jags Colts UNDER 44 could be a good bet too...great D on jacksonville (best corner in the league should help slow down peyton) and not much offense for the jags either.

[GeoffM]

I got Indy under 44.5 as well.

[Aequitas58]

So far, for this Sunday, I have:

PHL -6.5 -110 v. SF
CHI -4.5 -115 v. MIN

I'm also leaning towards CIN +2.0 -110.

[GeoffM]

Agreed, I like Cincy too Lou.

[eejit101]

i have

Bears at -3
Cin at +2
and the over under of 44 in the JAX game (i took under obv.)

[drewjax]

I came out of retirement last week. As per the recommendation of Penguin,
I put 10 large on my Patriots. Thats right, 10 big ones, 10 whole dollars.

Anyway, I may try to turn that $10 into a million or 2. You know TP/MM.

Plays that at least interest me.

1. TEN +11 Is Miami 11 points better than anyone?
2. Packers +7 same deal with Detroit
3. under 34' NYJ/Bills small # but Bills D is pretty solid, and I dont think
the Jets are gonna have 2 crazy touchdowns again.
If you take those 2 away, they didnt do much?

thoughts?

[omahilo]

if I had to play any of your bets I would play the under 34 of the bills/jets... you got two pretty solid defenses going at it. Bills offense hasnt done shit really and the jets offense has been a fluke up to this point. The bills defense will hold them to 10 or fewer pts. This one could end up 13-10 somewhere in that range.

as for TENN +11 and GB +7... I wont touch either of these games. All 4 teams involved are just way too bad for me to be betting money on.

[drewjax]

Thanks,

good points. MY thinking was similar. Those 4 teams all suck, so getting 11 and/or 7 points???...........

[Defendant]

Remember last year, Packers Saints 53-3?

[GeoffM]

52-3, but Pack aren't playing the Saints. Plus the game is sold out at NO, that crowd is going to be jumping. I still like ATL, but it will be an emotional game that could go either way.

[Zybomb]

I dunno where you're getting your lines from but Chi -4.5 is terrible, especially at an add vig of -115. My guy has it -3 at a -120 vig, and most books have it at -3. The Eagle line should be 5.5 or 6 (this is what I have) at the highest not 6.5... this isnt that big of a difference, but the Bear one could be

[Aequitas58]

SportsInterAction.com

This is the site that PokerOwnage was spamming. I had a feeling the lines were off, I just didn't look into how bad. Maybe it's time for a withdrawal.