Lets bet the UFC!

[Wes]

I pretty much put money on every UFC PPV so I should at least list my picks somewhere.

Last UFC 130 I got Rampage Jackson at -275 and -280 vs. Matt Hamill. I honestly think the line should have been at least -600 for this fight. Matt Hamill has exhibited very little punching power while in the UFC (even though most of his UFC victories have come from KO or TKO). That plus he has not utilize his wrestling much while in the UFC (and now after this fight we perhaps know why). Suffice it to say, this was not a surprising loss.

I also had Brian Stann at -115 vs. Jorge Santiago. I thought Stann was undervalued mostly due to Santiago's record and pretige being brought on from fighting in the very underwhelming Japan MMA.

Anyway for my picks now.

UFC 132: Ryan Bader vs. Tito Ortiz -435

Tito Ortiz has entered the aged Ken Shamrock in the UFC betting stage of his career. And by that I mean, if he is fighting, bet the house on the other guy. I just don't see how Tito wins this fight. He has even less power in his hands in Matt Hamill does. He is a worse wrestler than Bader is. The last time he submitted someone is when people tapped out to neck cranks.

The last time Tito Ortiz even looked decent was 2007 against Rashad Evans in a fight he would have won if not for a point deduction due to holding the cage. Even that was a close decision. The last time he had a decisive victory (vs. anyone not named Ken Shamrack) was against Patrick Cote in 2004 who stepped in on extremely late notice (not to mention Cote fights a weight class lower than 205).

I usually stay away from lines this one sided, but this is just free money IMO.

I didn't see anything for UFC 131 or the fight night before that that was an easy bet, but I will post picks when all the fights are added.

[Wes]

Putting a small play on Tim Credeur over Ed Herman tonight at -115. Tim did very well against Nate Quarry (Ed Herman's training partner) in a loss largely due to Nate's power at Fight Night 19. Other than being overly aggressive and getting hit with Nate's right hand, Tim did very well standing. Ed Herman has pretty weak punching power.

Ed's main outlet of winning this fight is taking it to the ground and grinding this to a victory. Tim does have a tendency to get taken down by wrestlers though, but his jiu jitsu is good enough not to get submitted.

Both though are coming off of 2 year layoffs. Ed did have a more serious knee injury.

[Wes]

I pretty much lost my ass betting on Ryan Bader tonight. FML.