Get the crying towel

Penguinfan · #1 03-20-05, 05:18 PM

Honestly, without going into how some people think on-line poker is rigged (I don't) I would love to know how some of the guys at the top of the tournament leaderboards do it time after time after time and avoid the bad luck that invades my game. I am serious here, you see guys like Teecoy, Kid Blaast, Deeznuts, Gank, etc.. ALWAYS on the leaderboard. Granted the are better than me, but when you are constantly putting you chips in with the best hand and coming out on the short end of it you have to wonder how they avoid the shitty end of the stick more often than not. I posted in the other thread 3 of the rediculous beats I took today (one didn't actually happen to me, but it kept a guy alive on the bubble and I busted out 4th) I did forget to mention the AA vs KK I lost with when the board brought 4 hearts for him though. How do they avoid the bad luck better tham me, honestly I must be missing something because they seem to so it time after time and all I get is a bad beat story.
What could it be?

Talking Poker · #2 03-20-05, 05:23 PM

Quite honestly........ I think it's because these guys are GOOD and they play a lot. They take the same bad beats as everyone else, but they put themselves in a position to be able to absorb the blow if and when it inevitably happens... That, and because of the high number of tourneys they enter, bad luck knocks them out of some, but they are still albe to make it to the top of the Leader Board.

That's my guess. If you want the real answer, ask one of them

ChipFish · #3 03-20-05, 05:31 PM

Not only are they putting their chips in with the best of it,they are avoiding potential conflicts that could heavily damage their stack.

#1 rule (ahead of get your chips in with the best hand) is "PROTECT YOUR STACK"

#2 Get your chips in with the best hand.
#3 Understand folding equity
#4 Realize at what stage small stacks will call your bets. (avoid or attack)
#5 Stay ahead of the blinds (forget about average stack, it's a meaningless statistic.)
#6 See Rule #1 again.

omahilo · #4 03-20-05, 05:32 PM

they play alot of tourneys and they also play high buyin tourneys...

High buyin tourneys = more TLB = on the top standings.

Penguinfan · #5 03-20-05, 05:53 PM

I couldn't find the Hand History, but this one sticks out in my mind as one of the most dissapointing recenly only because of how I played it.

AGAIN 4-handed in a SNG and I have 66, UTG folds I raise 3x BB and get called by the BB, flop is JJ5 and he pushed in. I have watched him play through the game and he ALWAYS bets out when he missed the flop and slow plays it when he hits it well, I knew, seriously, I KNEW he didn't have a Jack, there was no doubt in my mind he did not hit the flop based on his prior play. Convinced my 6's were best I called (not hoping my 6's were good, or trying to catch a set, dammit I KNEW they were good) he turns over 7-K and I am about a 75/25 favorite at this point in the hand (I think) and he catches a 7 to bust me out. I could not have played that any better and still got the shitty end of it. That one pissed me off, not because he hit his 6-outer (it happens) but because I played it right and it ended wrong, again. The top guys have to be into vodoo or something, it just doesn't add up.

ChipFish · #6 03-20-05, 06:05 PM

Stack size is important... what were they?

Penguinfan · #7 03-20-05, 06:14 PM

If memory serves I had him outchipped by just a very small amount with both of us being the shorter of the 4 stacks, I want to say something like 2100 for me and 1700 for him with blinds at 200/400.

I am not sure where you are heading with this though, reguardless of the stack sizes I read him perfectly and put my chips in with the better hand and got outdrawn again. If there is something I am missing please enlighten me, it would be appreciated. I have to say you will need to make a compelling argument to get me to lay down what I figure for the best hand just on the fear of being outdrawn, is that what you suggest?

ChipFish · #8 03-20-05, 06:41 PM

You fold to his push,
6-6 is alot more hope than anything else.
What are the odds he's holding something you have dominated at this point?
Even if he IS drawing, chances are he is drawing to a higher pair also.

Situation differs if YOU pushed and not him.
I wouldn't have "called" it.

Opinions differ is all.

Penguinfan · #9 03-20-05, 07:37 PM

I appreciate the advice, but let me get this straight, if my read was correct (and this is part of the game) and it was, I lay down the best hand to his draw? I admit I have alot to learn yet, but thats a tough sell.

ChipFish · #10 03-20-05, 07:43 PM

Yes.
This wasn't a cash-game.
The difference is, that if you go broke in a tourney, you can't re-buy.
It's a very unneccessary chance to take in this position.

Talking Poker · #11 03-20-05, 09:39 PM

This is exactly correct, and might be the "piece" you are missing right now. Think about it like this.

All things equal (stack sizes, blinds, reads, blah blah blah), let's say all you do is call all in when you are an 80% favorite to win the hand.... 80%! Do you think you are going to win the tourney?

Well.... the first time you do this, you're an 80% favorite to double up. The second time, you're an 80% to double up as well, but if you look at both times together, you're only a 64% favorite to still be alive (.8*.8=.64). Make this same play three more times and there's only a 33% chance you'll still be in the tourney! In other words, it's twice as likely you'll have been knocked out, instead of double up as a 4:1 favorite five times in a row.

So, what's the moral of this story? 3 things (IMO):
1. You need to accumulate chips so you don't get knocked out when you do lose big pots.
2. Playing small pots is a lot less dangerous that playing big ones.
3. If you do decide to call all in, you better be sure you are a BIG favorite. Because you're oging to get sucked out on eventually.

If you have trouble with the above points, stick to cash games. Pure percentage play is fine there, because you can reload when you get busted - which WILL happen.

Penguinfan · #12 03-20-05, 10:10 PM

I get it, but one hand doesn't know what happened on the previous hand and an 80% favorite is a good spot to be in. Your telling me you would not call off your stack if you KNEW you were and 80% favorite? I can't believe that you just wait for the stone cold nuts to put any chips in the pot

Go to the coin flip analogy everyone like to use, if you flip the coin 9 times and it's heads each time the odds are still 50/50 on the next flip, the cards don't know I just won as an 80% favorite so it's time to bust my nuts this time.

If your not gonna call as an 80% favorite when will you? Also, I didn't say "All I do is call as an 80% favorite" (quoting you), I still play my game otherwise, but when faced with a decision on the bubble as a 75% favorite I just don't see how the smart play is to lay it down, I'm willing to learn, but need more clarification, sorry.

Penguinfan · #13 03-20-05, 10:14 PM

On the flip side, you can't tell me putting your chips in as a 20/80 dog and hoping to catchis the path to glory and riches.

ChipFish · #14 03-20-05, 10:16 PM

Here's an example.
You are in the WSOP with one spot left before the payouts.
If you bust out now you win $0, If you make one more place higher you are guaranteed $10,000.
Now, do you "call" all of your chips off, where you THINK you are an 80% favourite?

I don't.

Talking Poker · #15 03-20-05, 11:03 PM

Of course I would put my chips in if i KNEW I was an 80% favorite. Well, usually. There are times (say, on the bubble of major prizemoney) when I wouldn't.

But that wasn't my point. And of course the cards don't remember. My point was simply that a tournament is made up of a large number of hands, and even if you ALWAYS get your mioney in with the best hand, you can't expect to win every showdown. Eventually, you are going to get sucked out on. So, if you always put your money in with the best hand, you re always going to end up losing with the best hand.

Please note that this is NOT me saying you should start putting your money in with the worst hand... I'm simply trying to explain what you have been seeing lately, and if anything, suggest you become a little more selective when CALLING all in. People always seem to think calling all in as a favorite (no matter how slight the edge) is the correct play... and a lot of times, it's not. Not in a tournament.

Talking Poker · #16 03-20-05, 11:05 PM

Usually, when people do this, they either don't realize they are a 4:1 dog, or they are trying to get you to fold. In poker, this is known as bluffing

junYUN · #17 03-20-05, 11:20 PM

lol TP

Penguinfan · #18 03-21-05, 07:33 AM

And correctly reading someones bluff is part of the game as well.

Penguinfan · #19 03-21-05, 07:36 AM

What I am getting from this thread is that you need to have built up a large chip stack to survive the bad beats, which we all seem to agree are coming.

If I am correct how about sharing some secrets on that part of the game. Otherwise I am off to find a way to break into the No Bad Luck Fraternity.

Penguinfan

junYUN · #20 03-21-05, 11:17 AM

uh by playing small pots? chipping away at a lot of small pots...betting a lot of flops...gives you the chance to gamble a few times (aka call all in with a pair of sixes with JJ5 on the board). those guys earn pots that PAY for their bad beats.