How Lucky Do You Think You Are At Poker?

[sjay2k]

On a scale of 0-100 (higher = luckier) how lucky do you think you have been in poker?

I'd guess about 53% lucksackery for myself.

[Reel Deal]

50.1%

[lightfungus]

What is 0%, the average amount of luck? I need a reference point...RD infered that 50% was the average amount of luck...so is 0% as unlucky as you can get?

[sjay2k]

Say 0 - 100th percentile of all players.

[hackers238]

35.

But I know everything thinks they're unlucky, so I'm probably just a donk.

[lightfungus]

47%

[Talking Poker]

This is a tough question.

My honest answer is in the 48-49% neighborhood (it feels much worse), but then I look back at sattying into the WSOP, Aruba, Bahamas (not as impressive - bigger buy in), making two WSOP Final Tables, and so on and so forth.... yeah, it's been a while, but each of those was a huge hit where I didn't necessarily get lucky, but I didn't get unlucky - and that's lucky. I think those few incidents alone probably swing me above 50%. So I'll revise and go with:

52%

Even though it feels like 42-45%.

[JDMcNugent7]

65% to start out and when I didn't know what I was doing
this year like 22% seriously, biggest downswing of my life by far this whole year losing every big pot somehow

[lightfungus]

JD, I am a big fan, and I know how hard you work (much harder than I). But that makes me feel better...honestly.

Just out of cuiriousity, who would everyone put in the 90th percentile and above? Gold? Moneymaker?

[MAYHEM45]

I'm not sure what I said when i first answered this question, but probably 55-60% lifetime. Ive made a decent amount and still really don't know wtf I'm doing A LOT of the time.

[Kurn]

Gold and Moneymaker the luckiest? No way. Jerry Yang is the man.

[Talking Poker]

*Waiting patiently for bdawg to chime in*

[bdawg31]

Ha, i think i am streaky. Early on, when i first started (right before the boom), i suspect i was 50%. Then i got hot - won a few tourneys, then won a few BIG tourneys - i would say i was 60-70% (and as sort of stated earlier - you can be 'lucky' by having series of better hands hold up, or just catch that one big break) during that miracle run.

Then it caught up with me, and i would say i ran lower - i am going to say low-to-mid-40s overall (this is when i had that huge losing-coinflip streak), with some even lower stats (and a few peaks mixed in). I made it worse because i had not learned to handle that kind of run and it played bad on top of that.

The last year (most of 2007) i was just floundering around so i wouldnt even try to quatify that.

I suspect that I am now running right around 50 again. I am back to rebuilding my roll and grinding away. I have had my up and down nights. I feel i am running a little below that in tourney play and maybe lately slightly above that in my cash play.

I guess i should say this is all my PERCEPTION of my luck - logically, deep down, i know that my 'luck factor' has been 50 over this entire run.

[bdawg31]

More on 'luck'. I strongly believe one can 'make their own luck' - or at least the perception of being lucky. In Doyle's book, he mentions how people always considered him a 'lucky' player. He said this was due to the fact that he is constantly pushing the play, being aggressive, raising and re-raising. So, he will at times get his money in with the worst of it. But, people remember when he 'gets lucky' and hits his cards. That combination along with the constant winning of small pots through aggression makes him appear lucky (and i would guess lucky too).

I know that during my 'lucky' period - i was pretty fearless (maybe because i did not know any better). Even playing the cash games (i played higher limit) - i would ram and jam. I am sure people thought i was 'lucky' when i would be raising and re-raising on semi-bluffs and i would at times catch. Same with tourneys - i had zero fear of busting. I would often have what i referred to as 'aggressors remorse'.

As i got more experienced, i also noticed (and still do) that i have less and less 'aggressors remorse'. Which means in theory i am not getting my money in as often with the worst of it. BUT, i am also noticing that i don't get nearly as many bigger cashes as i used to.

When you put this along with when i did have what i believe was a bad run, i started playing in fear of my bankroll.

I am rambling.

[Wes]

Probably like 95% since if I didn't run really well at the beginning I would be broke with like no future.

[lightfungus]

Something I have thought about quite a bit, and you make this point. Timing of your luck is SO important. Is the average really that telling?

Like Storm said, he could have gone busto at the beginning, had a $1.73 left in his account and gone on the SICKEST streak known to man and built a roll up to $79 smackers...but what if he hadn't had that one hand that made him go busto, and THEN went on the streak. Maybe that's what happend...I certainly think something similar happened with JD. He avoided bad luck in the beginning that allowed him to get to where he is from profits of play-money he sold....I doubt it was a respectable bankroll.

Does the long run really matter??? I mean do we actually ever get there...to the long run I mean.

Or are we all lucky because Moneymaker got lucky and introduced the world to poker (me included)?

Maybe the guy's who hit and run while rubbing their rabbit's foot have it all figured out...its all about massaging the timing.

At the end of the day, I don't think anyone can say anything is 100% a result of the individual..."luck" factors into everything in life, and the timing of that "luck" alters the course of your life.

One of the best examples of a work ethic and pure willpower is Michael Jordan. He got to where he was because he wanted it more than anyone in everyone single game he played (the ones that mattered anyway)...but what if he never grew to be 6' 6'' ?

[hackers238]

Yeah, I agree with your luck sentiments fungus.

I admit I must have ran like GOD when I first started, because I beat NL25 for 5 pt/BB over 5000 for my first month. And this is before I started learning basic strategy

Since then I've never had a 5 ptBB/100 month, I've been in the 3-5 range instead.

Excepting this month, where I'm break even at NL25 and ran -4 ptBB/100 over 2K NL50 hands

[Robbr25]

I would say 55%.

[MAYHEM45]

Lol i was playing 6.50 turbo plo8 sngs on a 15 dollar bankroll to start off. I think I ran a liiiiiiiittle hot to start.

[2Tone]

Interesting question, especially because of all of the related topics it brings up. And if two players play any “significant” (defined how?) number of hands, how far a delta can there really be between the 1 and 100 on your luck scale? I mean in theory, if we should all be at exactly 50 over the long (defined how?) term, right?

I’m going to put myself at 68%. At the tables, I’d say it is only 53%, but I’m going to factor in the convenience factor of me being able to play on my way home from work on any given night, being in a financial position to afford the swings, a patient wife, etc.

Note: There’s also a large Quads or better jackpot at my local room. It’s been as high as $20K at one point for a royal, but usually is around $5k or so. If I hit this (maybe even tonight!) I’ll adjust this percentage way up . But if I happen to hit a royal in a home game and get nothing (like the last and only time I got one, when I was rewarded with a dining credit to the Imperial Palace restaurant of my choice ), I’m cutting that percentage in half.

[MAYHEM45]

wat?

[PShabi]

I'm not going to try and quantify it, but holy shit, I was a fucking luckbox at the beginning. Either that, or people really sucked cause I made a fuckton of money (relatively speaking) when I didn't really know what I was doing.

[JDMcNugent7]

well people sucked alot more than they do now thats for sure. if we could play with our knowledge of the game now 2-3 years ago i know i'd be a millionare, i think alot of ppl here would.

[Talking Poker]

I agree with JD, but had a similar start to shabi.

I pretty much tore up 6 max limit from Day 1. I had a pretty solid understanding of the fundamentals of the game - postion, aggression, etc), but if I started TODAY with that same skill set, I think I'd be breakeven at best. Back then, the average player was just BAD, so winning was easy.

I also like 2Tone's response. If I factor in everything in life with regards to poker, and not just my luck at the tables, I've got to be well into the 70s or maybe even 80s.

Unfortunately, for the last 2 weeks, I've been in the 30s at the tables. But I know it's just a matter of time until that swings to the 60s, so it's all good.

[melioris]

ding ding, winner.

at poker I probably am way more lucky than not, but this year it sure feels like hard fucking work is the only thing keeping the bad luck from cleaning me out. That said, every one of us that has the ability and opportunity to belong to this online community and contribute on a regular basis is far more lucky in life than not, so a little unlucky at the pokering still doesn't even it out.