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#1
10-03-10, 11:00 AM
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NFL Week 4
Taking a week off from picks against the spread, mainly to evaluate y own analysis criteria, seeing that I'm 2-4 so far.
That being said, I am in a suicide pool and you can't take a week off from that, so... SUICIDE PICK - Atlanta This leads to an interesting discussion. Lately I've been spending a lot of time at coldhardfootballfacts.com (CHFF) looking at their non-traditional stats. Initially, I had the saints penciled in as a logical suicide pick this week, but then I looked at CHFF and saw two interesting things. First, Atlanta over SF is the week's biggest mismatch based on their line play indexes and DPR. That looked good considering I also think SF is going the wrong way emotionally and the Facons seem to be an even-keel team. But it was the second thing I discovered that opened my eyes more. When comparing O-Line vs D-Line stats and DPR, CHFF stats make it look like Carolina has a slight edge over New Orleans.  Now there's an old saying that there are 3 kinds of untruths in the world: Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Bottom line is that if the Panthers cover, I may be drinking the CHFF cool-aid for the foreseeable future. Just not going to start just yet.
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"Animals die, friends die, and I shall die. But the one thing that will never die is the reputation I leave behind." Old Norse adage |
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#2
10-03-10, 01:02 PM
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Damn, I was strongly considering fading your picks this week.
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#4
10-04-10, 01:05 PM
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ATL 16
SF 14 ATL kicks a FG to win it. Meanwhile, tnd the Panthers damn near won outright. |
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#5
10-05-10, 05:32 AM
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So if I had bet the 2 games that CHFF stats pointed at, I'd have split.
Still alive in suicide pool thanks to a d-back on the niners being too stupid to just fall down and ice a win.
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"Animals die, friends die, and I shall die. But the one thing that will never die is the reputation I leave behind." Old Norse adage |
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