Variance in SNG's

[nflchad]

How many SNG's are needed at a given limit (20+2's for me) in order to get a good idea of ones ITM and ROI?

[Talking Poker]

I'd be curious to hear what people think on this too... I'll guess 100. By then, you should have a decent idea.

[Aequitas58]

It depends.

General Idea
Like TP said, 100 is a good place to start. I would be cautious with anything below, because you never know which way variance is swinging. When you get to 100, you will be able to gauge your ITM (in the money) rate and your ROI (return on investment).

Obviously, the more expensive the SNG buy-in, the more likely you're playing against better players. As a result, your "stats" or numbers for 100 $10/1's should be better than 100 $30/3's. On the flip side, because $30/3's pay out nicer, you can still make MORE money even if you have a smaller ITM rate. Get it?

Keeping Records
It's extremely important that you keep accurate records if you take SNG's seriously. The math is not hard, but it's important. Most "extreme" SNG-ers spreadsheet everything, and I agree that it's a good idea. You want to document things like the buy in amount, the place you finished, any money won, how many players, etc etc. The better your records the more "on point" your stats will be. Be SURE to separate the buy-in amount. This is critical.

Calculating the Numbers
As I said, the math is easy, but it's important:
ROI: Profit / Total Buy-In's
Example: You've played 10 $10/1's.
You've placed 1st three times(!) but have busted out 7 times. You winnings are $150, but your total buy-ins are $110. Therefore your profit is $40. So, your ROI is $40/$110 = .3636, or, 36%.
ITM: Times In The Money / Total Played
Example: In the above example, you have an ITM rate of 30%.

Good ITM / ROI #'s
I've heard that good ROI's are near 30%. I personally think that number is very good, but who knows. If your ITM is around 40% you are doing well.

Hope this helps. I'd say your stats are solid when you approach 200 - 300 SnGs at each level.

GL.

[Talking Poker]

Nice post Aeq.

I used to play SNGs almost exclusively, but then completely abandoned them for cash games for some reason... not sure why either, cause I did pretty well with them. Maybe I should give them another whirl one of these days... a "quick" 50 SNG sample or so.

[Windbreaker]

Everytime there's a Poker Stars reload, I clear the bonuses strictly through SNG's. I find it a nice change of pace from the regular grind at the ring games. It takes A LOT longer to clear these bonuses this way though. I basically have to play 120 10+1. I don't mind it since I have a high ITM/ROI on my return.

But I don't ever keep records of how much I've bought in for and how many times I cash. I just know, I know how much I'm up in total.

I find that that multi table SNG's to be more advantageous for me to play as well. It takes a lot longer to finish these tourneys...but it pays quite nicely compared to the single table SNG's.

As for this last reload - I've played about 90 10+1 and am pretty sure I have a ROI over 50% on the two table SNG's.

[Aequitas58]

That's "sickly" good. Keep playing them.

[nflchad]

My goal throughout the next week or so is to get in 100-200 20+2's on Party.
I hope to achieve a 35% ITM and an ROI of 25%. I plan on playing 3-4 staggered tables at a time.
I have a few questions before I start:

1. Is Empire poker (I have RB) the best place to get this done?

2. Assuming I do play these on Empire how long can I expect each SNG to last?

3. Is 3-4 tabling a legitimate possible number of tables (I can 4 table 6-max L and NL so I think I'll be okay here)?

[eejit101]

Im doing it now but on prima, their choice is just soo big. Im playing 100 $20 5strs. last time i did this i had an ITM of 50% and an ROI of somewhere near 47%ish.

[Talking Poker]

I hope you guys keep detailed records. I'll be very interested to see the results.

[MAYHEM45]

nflchad, I used to four table the 20 + 2s on eurobet (party skin where i have rakeback). So If you have rakeback at empire I say go for it. If you can 4 table 6max, you are already a multitabling champion and will have no problem. I usually do 4 at once, wait till the last one finishes, then take a 20 minutes break or so, fire up four more, rinse and repeat. I find that the 20+2's since they still have only 800 chips to start, typically take about 40 minutes each, if not shorter.
Good luck man!

[MAYHEM45]

Heres some inspiration for you guys.



This guys name is Justin Bonomo, and a few months ago he started this "quest".

He played 1000 200+15s on eurobet, and he plan was to make 30k. He came just short.

The real interesting thing is how he says that 1000 SNGs is still too small a sample to judge anything, which just goes to show ya how BIG the long run really is. If you read his last update you'll notice his big slide which took him from far exceding his expectations, to just coming in under them.

By the way, the kid is only 19! A year younger than me, damn....

[Talking Poker]

Very cool. Very, very cool. I like how he's 8 and 12 tabling $200+15 SNGs. That's sick. Impressive, but sick.

I'm seriously thinking about giving this a run (on a much smaller scale) just to see how I do. I'm honestly not even sure that I'd break even over say, 100 $50 SNGs, but I think it would be fun... and I might surprise myself.

Ok, I just spent some more time on this guy's site... it's very good. This article is a must read for any serious MTT player:


I'm happy to say that I think a lot like he does, but I can tell that he's better a better player than I am.

[MAYHEM45]

Starting tomorrow, I'm going back to my sng ways. Gonna fire up my eurobet account, throw in 100 bucks. and start off with 50 10+1s to get in the groove again. Ill try to play 12 a day until those are done, then move back up to 20+2s. Ill keep you guys informed of my progress in another thread, but don't be surprised if it takes a while. University Engineering is a bitch.

[Windbreaker]

If you have rake back at the party skins it's alright to do the SNG's there. I only dislike the blinds moving up every 10 hands. It does however speed up the game a lot. The biggest advantage you can take out of blinds moving so quickly is that most players at the 10+1 level or lower really have no concept of pot odds.

You can get rake back at most Prima sites and it's basically the same as Party skins. For single table, blinds move up every 10 hands. And for the most part the play is poor at the 10+1. For two table SNG's the blinds move based on time. And it last for quite a while.

The Poker Stars SNG's bonuses basically gives you back 100% of your rake.The Stars SNG's is lengthy. I don't usually play the single table SNG's there because by the time you end up heads up, the blinds are still only 75/150 when both players have huge stacks. Which allows shorts stacks to come back....but just drags the game out longer. For two table SNG's, you'll find a more percentage of poorer players early on in the tourney and blind stealing actually bigger difference later on, but it usually takes over an hour and half to finish these if you're heads up.

One time I played a two table SNG for over 2 hours. After half an hour of heads up play...we finally decided to just chop it - chips were about even. It was just way too long to play...haha.

[eejit101]

that guy is my god!!!!!! wow, what a great thinker about the game, i thought i was learning to think, but christ, i need help!

[SirFWALGMan]

My ROI is 75%, is that good? Too small of a sample size.. 29 games. I truncated my data starting at beginning of September. I have a 44% ITM score and I feel I have been slumping in SNGs in September.. am I insane, and should I be happpy?