The mother of all bad beats... - Page 2

Talking Poker · #26 02-07-06, 02:51 AM

I bet I play about 10% as many hands as you think I do.

I feel like I hardly play at all these days... The whole reason for that 6 max challenge was to make me try to find more time for poker.

jaeh00d · #27 02-07-06, 03:50 PM

lol i typed that fast and didnt read it over

i say ONE of the wost because, this one was very very bad also.... you tell me mathematically which one is worse i'm not so sure

yours or...

KK vs. AK

flop 2K2

turn 2

river 2

KK flops kings full and AK two pairs top kicker...

the river makes it quad 2's with a king kicker ( the board ) or quad 2's with an ace kicker.

regardless yours is hands down an absolute horrible bad beat

Talking Poker · #28 02-07-06, 04:09 PM

He would have won with AA also, so it's only half as bad.

jaeh00d · #29 02-07-06, 04:14 PM

well yes he would have won with AA also, but he didnt have AA, he had AK. Its not only that, its the fact that the flop came 2k2.

regardless, that beat of yours was absolutely horrible... bad beats such as that only come once every ten thousand hands or so... just be glad it came in a cash game, and not the final table of the 2006 WSOP Main Event..

Talking Poker · #30 02-07-06, 05:26 PM

No.

If the turn and river came A and A, he would have won. That's what I was saying. Aces full beats Kings full.

jaeh00d · #31 02-07-06, 05:32 PM

yea i get what youre saying now...although yes that one was a horrible bad beat running aces would have done the trick.

SirFWALGMan · #32 02-08-06, 05:49 PM

I had the NUT flush draw, NUT low draw, and NUT straight with 1 card left to go. I pushed my entire stack in, all $100+ at a .50/1 PLO8 table. So basically any low card and I win half. Any flush card (except one I will get to that) and I win with the Nut flush, or if things stay the same I win. EXCCCCCCCEPT: A 9 of spades came making no low, and the nut-hi for the idiot who called me with a sf! lol. I have no idea what the odds of that is.

Talking Poker · #33 02-08-06, 09:56 PM

Well, even if that was the ONLY card in the entire deck that would save him, with 4 cards on the board and 4 in each of your hands, that leave 40 unknown cards. 1 that helps him and 39 that don't.

So, 39:1. That's about 2.5%. Or, expressed a different way, 25 TIMES more than that chances of the hand I posted.

You guys are really missing the point here.

melioris · #34 02-08-06, 10:01 PM

Where is your sense of drama? Starting hands should be KK vs A3.

Maybe this is wrong, but the only thing worst would be KK vs AA, flop coming KK2 and then turn and river of AA, and then it would be a tie with TP's sob story. The point is can a person be farther behind on the flop to come back to win? Pretty much any situation in which you are chasing a two outer on the flop and then a one outer on the turn.

Talking Poker · #35 02-08-06, 10:09 PM

Right.... you can't be farther behind that needing two exact cards to come in order to win the hand.

GTDawg · #36 02-10-06, 10:12 AM

You have 8h 9h
Opp has Kh Ah

Flop comes 7h 10h Jh

What if something sick like that happens?

How do the odds compare in this situation to a perfect-perfect situation?

Talking Poker · #37 02-10-06, 01:19 PM

Don't take this wrong, but I honestly don't see how this is so hard for people to understand. In this example, the guy would need to get exactly the Qh to win the hand. So, with 45 unknown cards left after the flop, his odds are 44:1 against and they will be 43:1 on the river. His total odds are 22.5:1. This is called a one outer, which is a whole lot easier to hit than perfect perfect.

Now, had your example been this:
You have 8h 9h
Opp has Kh Ah
Flop comes 6h 7h 10h

Here, your opponent needs to get exactly the Jh AND exactly the Qh in order to win the hand - the order they come doesn't matter. So, that's perfect perfect, meaning the odds would be exactly the same as the hand I posted.

It doesn't matter if the person needs the two remaining Aces or the exact two suited cards or the two remaining 4s for that matter (33 vs 44 after a 332 flop). Exact two cards = exact two cards, no matter what two cards they are. The probability of getting exactly a Qh is the same as getting exactly a 4d, for example.

The only real difference here is that at least this guy has a reason to be in the hand, with an Ace high flush and all. He should at least THINK he has a good hand.

GTDawg · #38 02-10-06, 03:18 PM

No, I understand that perfect-perfect is much harder...I was just wondering what the comparison was...

I'm not trying to argue the impossiblity of the situation.