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#26
01-05-09, 10:45 PM
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He has to play like 120k hands a month minimum at 1/2 to do this. He's going to burn out way before then I think, and when he is playing wsop he'll set himself back by quite a bit. Like April I'm sure I'll be fucking shitting my pants cause he'll be ahead of the pace, but like in october there's little chance he has that fortitude to continue doing it imo.
btw, I have to play roughly 150k hands a month to get to supernova elite at 2/4. Like 5k hands per day is going to get a little daunting unless I don't burn out on this 20 tabling business. |
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#27
01-05-09, 11:11 PM
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I typed up a post in the main thread on ptp, but decided not to submit it.
Basically I figure that with a $150 ABI if he only plays 2000 MTTs on PS (and the rest on FTP) he will earn about 110k VPPs. That will leave him 890k short of SNE. At NL200 you can figure to earn .5 VPP per hand (which may be a bit low for Full Ring as I run about .56 at that level), so he will need to play something like 1.78mm hands, or about 148k per month on average or about 34250 hands per week. If he is playing some fast tables he can easily average 70 hands per table per hour, and if he can play 20 tables on average, that is 1400 hands per hour. So he only needs to play 25 hours per week and he gets there. 8 hours a day on Thursday Friday and Saturday gets it done, or he can play 4 hours a couple days when he busts out of tourneys then he can take days off. I think that Moss is highly motivated to make SNE just for the pure value of it. Automatically he will get entry into the WSOP ME (12.5k) and probably EPT Championship (20k) as well as WCOOPME (2.5k) and the equity he gains by not having to sell off pieces of these tourneys is pretty big, or he can sell off a bunch of his action and keep the cash. On top of that he will get 3.5mm FPPs worth .016 each at SNE ($56k) as well as 2k, 3k, 4k, 5k, 6k, and 8k worth like 75% in cash (28k) + Freeroll equity which for him is probably at least 5k. So the total value of SNE without the prop bet is approximately $125k on top of any profits made getting there. This should be really enough to motivate him and I think he can do it. If he can get to about 600k VPP, he can pretty much offset any prop loss with the milestone bonuses and FPP value. SNE really isn't that difficult if you can 18-24 table NL200+ proficiently (not lose 50k+ doing it) and you are dedicated (which I think someone that plays 2500+ MTTs per year pretty much is). I think that if I had the bankroll to do it, I could make it playing NL200 and NL400 even playing only after work. That may be pushing it but it really isn't that far out of the question if you have the drive to put in 4-6 hours per night |
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#28
01-06-09, 03:18 PM
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TP I want to do 5k against him, but I only want to escrow it with you. Cool?
__________________
"Suffer the pain of discipline or suffer the pain of regret" "Rome wasn't built in a day" |
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#29
01-06-09, 05:51 PM
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I'm not sure. Don't worry about escrowing with scaphism, if that's your concern. I'll post and ask though.
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#31
01-07-09, 12:34 PM
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His response:
So yeah, ship me however much you want and I'll get this booked for you. Do me a favor and think this over good though before you do it - read jhill's post above. I'm still betting against him and Wes is betting $10k, but I'd still feel badly if me pointing this out to you ended up costing you $5k. Let me know. I'll have him book it after I receive your $$. |
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#32
01-07-09, 01:00 PM
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I was thinking about this and I have a question:
If you had money riding on this and he was getting close to winning the bet - would you arrange to play at his tables to slow the action down (ie. timing down with each decision)? I would think that if there was even a little bit of organization behind it you could drop his hands/hour rate quite a bit... Fair game (I didn't see anything in the rules to preclude this possibility)? Dirty pool? Completely ineffective? |
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#33
01-07-09, 03:11 PM
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Seems dirty to me. I wouldn't do it.
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#36
01-08-09, 03:43 PM
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Still want this bet? Ship to me (FT preferred, believe it or not) if you do.
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#37
01-08-09, 04:50 PM
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shipped. ur holding onto it the entire time right?
__________________
"Suffer the pain of discipline or suffer the pain of regret" "Rome wasn't built in a day" |
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#38
01-08-09, 09:52 PM
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Correct.
If you win, I'll ship it back to you and Moss will ship his $5k to you. If you lose, I'll ship it to him. |
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#39
01-08-09, 11:36 PM
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You're booked, JD:
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#41
01-09-09, 11:59 AM
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I don't think you can...
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#42
01-09-09, 12:02 PM
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Now that TPers have bet over $15k against Moss, I just HAVE to post this so-awesome comic made by GambleAB.
Here's hoping it's accurate. |
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#46
01-09-09, 09:38 PM
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He's going to post updates on his progress a couple of times per week . I'll link it in the OP too.
Latest update, through 1/8: 26,318 VPPs |
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#48
01-11-09, 10:07 PM
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Wes... Moss says you haven't shipped the $10k for the escrow yet and aren't replying to PMs. scaphism2's FT account is good to go. He says you can escrow it with me if you prefer, but just ship to scaph, IMO.
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#49
01-13-09, 11:50 AM
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BTW... I fully expect him to be AHEAD of pace for at least a few months...
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#50
01-18-09, 10:35 AM
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He's well ahead of pace now (as we expected at this point)... a little more than I'd like though:
1/2 7017 vpps 1/5 15619 vpps 1/8 26318 VPPS 1/10 33559 vpps 1/11 36921 vpps 1/17 53941 vpps |
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