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#26
06-04-08, 05:36 PM
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So why are you not going to take the bet? If you want to make a large bet to make it worthwhile, make a large bet. If you'd rather not escrow the money, I can work something out with you to get at least some of the action under me.
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#27
06-04-08, 05:47 PM
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Not betting, because I think I'm missing something. If it sounds too good to be true....
I don't know...seems like he knows something I don't. Storm from what I can tell, the most he's ever played is 567 in a month (from Sharkscope). I'm guessing he's a student with time off now....but I don't see any signs that indicate he's ever multitable 16+ successivelly. (I could be totally wrong and he could be sitting this up???). I don't know....something just doesn't feel right about it....not worth the potential 1k for a win. |
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#28
06-04-08, 05:52 PM
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SharkScope msusyr24 on Stars and Tilt.
Year 2008 data: 47 total games played on FT. 1574 total games played on Poker Stars. If I do an advanced search by month for 2008, he's won over $2000 twice, but barely. His 2008 ROI on Stars is 43%. But that's including everything. If I make this 2-45 players, no sattelites, but still all stakes, he's played 1405 tourneys in 2008 and has a 37% ROI. Those are good numbers, but his total 2008 winnings using the above criteria (basically pulling out the 180s and sattys) is $4632. So to win $5k in 30 days, he's going to have to significantly increase his volume. Maybe he thinks he can do this. But I personally think his ROI is going to drop when he plays crazy volume like that. It should also be noted that if we filter out everything above $5, he omnly has 174 games played. So he's won most of that money at higher limits. He does have a 56% ROI for $5 and less (no sattys, 45 mans and lower) though. The most games (filtered as above) he has played in a month so far was 537 in May. Here are the graphs of his 2008 45 man and lower, no sattelies action... |
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#29
06-04-08, 05:59 PM
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FYI... there is about 7 hours left until he is either going to start this or pull it if he doesn't get enough action.
I suggested extending 48 hours, but unless he posts on 2p2 or something in addition, I'm not sure how much more action he's going to get. |
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#30
06-04-08, 06:09 PM
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hey guys this is the guy running this challenge
give you some info on me im a 20yr old student..just got out of school i play basketball for the school and have 0 time to play during school i've paid my way through college and been on my own since i was 15 100% through playing poker. im a triple major and have turned my life around completely. i'd like to think i have a good head on my shoulders. basically i think i can 15+ table successfully and imo think this is possible. the big thing will be volume, time, and if my roi will drop, and lastly if i will burn out. this is why I put up the bet... I've always wanted to try this. I mean, the though of being able to make 5k in a month with like a $500 roll would provide me so much security in the back of my mind as far as if I ever need money in the future. I've simply never had the time/motivation to try. This will be a pain in the ass but an extra 5k+ in sidebets would make it worth the try. AND here is my take on it. I'm guessing I will get ~10k in total action. that has my risk at 5k. i can guarantee you i will make at least 3k. therefore my MAX LOSS is 2k. I can handle that. Basically im risking 2k to win 12k+ If you have any other questions please let me know. This is for no game higher than $5.50 and nothing with more than 45 players. No fpp tourneys, no satellites, etc etc |
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#32
06-04-08, 06:14 PM
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He made a statement of needing at least 10k in action (5k from him) in order for it not to hurt his hourly rate? I am not sure what to make from that because it doesn't appear that he has ever made $5k in a month from MTTs or SNGs.
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#33
06-04-08, 06:20 PM
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i dont think i ever mentioned hourly rate
what i meant was that i need some risk for this to be worth it. if i only get 4k in action my risk is 2k. well i guarantee im going to make 3k in the 30 days so really my worst case scenario is a 1k profit. lol if this starts off badly, knowing im still going to make money from this challenge really isn't anything that will push me to keep playing. losing several thousand or more would however. |
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#35
06-04-08, 06:31 PM
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msusyr just PM'd me about my idea of him posting this on 2p2. Like me, he has no cred there, so hasn't bothered. But if one of you guys who frequents 2p2 regularly and is trusted there is willing to cross post the info (I'm not sure how exactly you'd need to do it, if they allow linking to other sites, etc), he will give you 5% of the action you bring in IF HE WINS the bet.
So in other words, if you post on 2p2 and it brings in $5k in bets AND HE WINS, he'll pay you $250. And I get a cut too for coordinating this.  If no one does this, no big deal, but if one of you 2p2 regulars thinks this is something those guys would like to get in on, then by all means let them know about it. Please post here before doing so though, so we don't have like 3 people doing it. Oh, and in case this is making you wonder, I get nothing for referring you guys or anything like that. He just PM'd me for the first time a few minutes ago. The reasons I started this thread were exactly what they appear to be - wondering if the SNG experts here though it was possible. I'm still betting against him. |
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#37
06-04-08, 11:51 PM
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I am the guy escrowing the money on PTP and have dealt with msusyr alot and there is 100% no angle planned.
He basically needs to play 3000 SNGs at 30% ROI or 4500 SNGS at 20% ROI. He isn't going to use any bots/multiple players. he isnt hoping to include rakeback or anything. If he manages to play 4000 SNG's in a month playing his best game I expect him to win the bet. Doing that however is obviously the hard part. Its a pure volume/endurance test and whether he can maintain his best perfomance 10+ hrs a day for 30 days. |
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#38
06-05-08, 01:15 AM
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Welcome to the forum to you both.
GL with this msu... I'm betting against you, but I think this will be interesting, no matter how it ends, so I hope you decide to go for it. |
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#43
06-05-08, 04:44 PM
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I would post at 2p2, but I frequent the micro Full Ring Cash forum, and I think the most you would get in action might be $300
I also don't think those players know much about SNGs. |
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#44
06-05-08, 04:50 PM
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Hey, I'll post it anyway. Googled around and found a link to your PTP post.
Last edited by hackers238; 06-05-08 at 04:56 PM. |
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#45
06-05-08, 05:39 PM
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You can find it in the first few posts in this thread too.
Make sure you tell them he's only accepting bets until midnight ET. |
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#47
06-06-08, 02:36 AM
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He started at midnight (and already quit for the night).
Webcam is here: |
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#49
06-06-08, 03:17 AM
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You're only 2 hours past the deadline and he is asleep. If you ship the money to Wota now (see above, or actually PTP link, I guess), I'm sure he'll take your action. If not, Wota will ship it back.
Can't hurt to try if you want in. |
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