How Lucky Do You Think You Are At Poker?

[Invigilator]

56.3

[Reel Deal]

Yeah, while at poker I might be around 50.1%, in life I'm well into the 90s.

[Talking Poker]

I was only quoting my "poker life" number. My LIFE number is definitely in the 90s. I have it good, and I don't take it for granted.

[juiCe[3x]]

I think im around 50%, maybe alittle lower since I haven't had that one big tourney hit. As for life...it seems like im at 25% right now lol but its probably closer to the 60's...just at the 30's of things that I really want but just wasn't meant to be.

[Kurn]

Lifetime I just assume I'm around the mean. Maybe the Moneymake Millionaire thing puts me on the lucky side a bit. It takes a little extra good fortune to get through that many folks to even have made it to the final 27.

My father, who got me interested in horse betting when I was a kid, always said after losing a photo finish "the pictures even out in the end."

[sjay2k]

Hmmm, kinda interesting most people think they are >50%. Not what i was expecting.

[bdawg31]

I thought a little more on this. Someone had mentioned the timing factor of luck and that is huge.

People talk about the 'long run' things working out. Well, sometimes there isn't a 'long run'. Without getting into too much detail (TP will know the hand i am talking about) - i lost a coinflip (my AK vs 10s) that will probably be the biggest coinflip hand i lose, ever.

Now, 'long term' - i might win the next 10 hands i get it in with AK vs 10s. But, that will not make up for the coinflip hand i lost in terms of importance. The math itself will work out and i will win and lose my fair share of AK vs 10s hands. But the luck factor comes into play because of the timing of me being 'unlucky' (or not lucky - depending on your point of view).

Look at some WSOP champions. They got on hot streaks, lucky streaks if you will, and became world champions. Sure, 'long term' their luck will change and they will lose their fair share of hands. But, so what? They were lucky when they needed to be.

[melioris]

But isn't this what we are talking about with "luck" in poker. Of course everyone is roughly even, particularly now when folks play more hands in a month than some pros played live over their entire career. Sample size is everything.

But timing, that is when the luck actually come in.