NFL bet decision (HELP)

[eejit101]

just found on my sportsbook the Patriots for -5.5 vs the bills next week. I am tempted to put more than the "4" units i already have on this.

Advice please.

[GeoffM]

My advise would be to cash out

[Penguinfan]

I have not looked at this game, but I will since there has been a request, and I actually enjoy it.

Right off the bat I have to say laying points on the road in a division matchup is generally a bad idea.

[Talking Poker]

What are you thought on betting more than 4 units on a game? I always thought the point of betting in units, was so you don't end up going 4-1 on the weekend and LOSING money.

While we're at it, what are your thoughts on betting on games this far in advance?

[Penguinfan]

It's like this, if I am building a bankroll I will take shots at games, play a parlay now and then, etc.. There are conditions to each of those that would probably exceed the maximun post length to go into now.

Now if I have a bankroll and am trying to make XXX amount of money a month doing this then, NEVER bet more than one unit a game, EVER, PERIOD. It's hard enough to go 60%, I sure as hell don't want to go 60%+ over a given time period and still be in the red!!!!


As far as betting this far in advance, well there are two different approaches on that.

If you are hooked up with information on Sunday night when the virgin lines come out the sharp (and I mean very sharp) playes jump on the numbers they think are wrong and usually the numbers get moved before the actual public ever sees them. Believe it or not the line on a game changes several times during the week, most of us just don't see it. It may be a change in the juice or the spread itself, but they do change more than most know. If you have friends in Vegas and know the lines the sharp guys are moving SUnday night for the following week you can coat-tail them and bet early.

I am in the other camp who like to bet towards the end of the week or even Sunday morning. Injuries, weather, starters changing, etc... have a lot to do with the outcome of a game and I like to have all that info before I plunk down any cash.

You can start handicapping the games well in advance, as a lot of work goes into it, but unless I am super afraid of a big line move across a key number I will wait just to be sure.

It didn't cost anybody when Roethlisberger had his appendix burst, but if you threw down early in the week and put four units on that game you probably didn't like that news in the middle of the week.

I do think building a bankroll is different than grinding it out. Look at it as a rebuy tournament, the first hour is building your roll, you take risks with the small amounts in the beginning in hopes of getting a stack to work with, if you bust along the way you simply re-load and try again. After the first hour you have your roll, or stack and now must treat it as your life and death where every single game or move has very real consequences.

[Talking Poker]

Are you done with sports betting forever? Any chance you'll deposit $500 or something and try to "build a roll" with it?

[Penguinfan]

I really don't know the answer to that, I did play a $50 parlay this past weekend for the fun of it, wouldn't you know, it hit with Oakland covering last night, the Jets hanging on and Pittsburgh/KC going over the total easily, also had a bet on the Penguins opening night since I was going to the game.

I'm sure at some point I will be back, but I honestly don't think you, or a lot of people understand what a long term bad luck streak is all about. I'm not insulting you or trying to argue with you about it because I have been on your side of it. Where you believe the numbers are the numbers and odds and percentages play themselves out over the long haul. I honestly believe that as well, really I do.

But when things happen all at once that just defy logic it wears on you, hard. I sincerly hope you NEVER experience a streak like I had, honestly.

Maybe busting out like I did will be a good thing, I obviously still look at games and matchups, but I'm not sure I will ever spend the time on it again that I once did. As far as poker goes pphht, stupid fucking game

[Talking Poker]

Believe me, I know what a bad streak is. I may not have had one as bad as you, but I've had some pretty bad ones. And I'd rank bdawg's up there with the best of them.

[omahilo]

I hope Penguin you do decide to come back and bet some games...

I for one did enjoy your perspective on the games and bet alot of your games.

[Zybomb]

Don't bet on games a full week before the game. A lot can (and often does) change in a weeks time

[Zybomb]

I know this wasn't directed at me, but I'll give an answer.

I've always bet in Units 1-5 (5 being the max number on any one game or bet). In theory 1 Unit should be 1% of your Sports Betting Bankroll and 5% is the most you'd ever risk (on what you thought is a "lock"), however since I do not have a seperate Sports Betting bankroll I just bet what Im comfortable with, with each Unit being $100.

The more confident I am the more units I'll put on my bet. In general the majority of my bets are 1 Unit Plays. The other week I had more than 1 multi unit bet in the same week which was rare for me (3 Units on the Mets for the Series vs LA and 2 Units for the OVER in the Valuev vs Barrett fight.) This past week I put 2 Units on Michigan (who barely covered ) 1 Unit on Pittsburgh (panthers not steelers) 1 Unit on Ohio State (who hoo!), 1 Unit the Eagles (who screwed me and my vig was bigger than usual too!) and 1/2 Unit on the Jets (who almost choked ). This is more like what a typical week looks like for me.

As far as 4 and 5 Unit plays, I can probably count the ones I've placed on 1 hand.

Last college football season I placed two 5 Unit plays in the same week. V. Tech over Virginia (I think the spread was -7 and they won by 35 or so) and Penn State -8 over (I cant remember) but that covered as well. I placed a 4 Unit bet on Wisconsin in the first round of the NCAA tourny this past year.... oh and the Broncos last NFL season were -3 over the Raiders and I put 4 Units on that. There may be one or two Im forgetting, but I like to think of picks as pretty big locks if I put 4 or 5 units on them. Like I said before in general, its mostly 1 Unit Plays and mabe a 2 Unit play as well.... 3 are uncommon, 4 and 5 are rare