Anybody wanna see a trap?

[Penguinfan]

Vegas is taking $$ after $$ on Cincy right now and yet they are dropping the line. Very fishy.

This looks like one people will talking about around the water cooler on Monday.

If I were a gambling man still I would grab a big piece of Tampa Bay today, currently +4

[drewjax]

Hmm, I was liking Cincy too. Bodog still has it at 5 1/2 if anyone is gonna jump on the points.

[MAYHEM45]

I dont get it. Explain?

[Penguinfan]

When Vegas hangs a number on a game everyone assumes they put that line up to get exactly even action on both sides of the bet so they collect the juice and have no real risk exposure, when too much money comes in on one side of a game they move the line to get action on the other side and even things out.

This is not really what happens, Vegas ends up on one side of a game more often than not they need the underdog to cover. When mostly favorites and overs hit Vegas loses money, or at least makes less than they wanted to.

This game, Cincy/TB the line opened at -6 as the virgin line and tons of money came in on the Bengals, instead of the line going to -7 or -7.5 they went the other direction encouraging MORE action on the Bengals. The line is -5 most places and you can find-4 if you look.

You have to ask yourself why people as sharp as Vegas would want the public to load up on one side of a game thus giving them tons of exposure if the Bengals cover.

I've seen it all to often, Vegas is banking on TB covering, plain and simple.

I'd say this is about as high as an 80% play when you see this type of action from the dessert.

[GeoffM]

I'm on Cincy -5.5, looking ok so far.

[Penguinfan]

Yep, so far you and everybody else in the betting world are looking OK. TB defense is wearing out and Cincy should roll in the fourth quarter.

Telling ya though, these trap games have funny endings sometimes. I'm watching and rooting for you now though.

[GeoffM]

Up 3. Need another score.

[Penguinfan]

Relax, they got TB's defense looking for water at this point. If your at -5.5 they are near FG range now and judging by that last TB offensive drive that is all you will need.

[GeoffM]

TD would have been nice than that FG.

I only got a small wager on it, like $25, but I have them picked in all my spread pools, and some of the spreads were at -6.5.

[GeoffM]

There goes that bet. Cincy choked.

I went from 5-0 to 2-3.

[omahilo]

VEGAS BABY!! dont ever bet against them.

[Penguinfan]

Man, I have been there and done that Geoff.

[Talking Poker]

I went 1-2 today, including a loss on Cincy.

I miss Penguinfan's weekly picks.... especially College, which I don't even thouch any more.