Joe Public VS The Sportsbooks

[Penguinfan]

It has often been said that if you had access to the total number of wagers an hour before kickoff on Sunday and saw what the majority of the public bet on you could easily go against those plays and make money with no work at all.

Makes sense in theory since that is exactly what the books are doing, fading the public's plays. Unfortunatly we won't get access to those numbers, but just for fun let's see how the people at Yahoo Pick Em do. Thousands of entries and here are the numbers going into Sunday, so if you fade em all you should make money.

What we would play on is in bold

TAMPA BAY (3.0) Baltimore +3
Baltimore
63.4
36.6

CLEVELAND (3.0) NO +3
New Orleans
57.1
42.9

CAROLINA (5.0) Atlanta +5
Atlanta
76.1
23.9

Seattle (6.0) Detroit +6****Most one-sided****
DETROIT
83.2
16.8

Philadelphia (4.5) Houston +4.5
HOUSTON
81.0
19.0

TENNESSEE (3.0) NYJ+3
New York (NYJ)
68.2
31.8

KANSAS CITY (2.5) KC-2.5
Cincinnati
33.0
67.0

Denver (3.5) STL +3.5
ST. LOUIS
72.2
27.8

NEW ENGLAND (9.0) Buffalo +9
Buffalo
74.8
25.2

JACKSONVILLE (2.5) Jacksonville -2.3
Dallas
36.5
63.5

Chicago (3.5) GB +3.5
GREEN BAY
73.2
26.8

ARIZONA (7.5) SF +7.5
San Francisco
77.5
22.5

Indianapolis (3.5) NYG +3.5
NEW YORK (NYG)
67.7
32.3

WASHINGTON (4.5) Minny +4.5
Minnesota
66.6
33.4

San Diego (3.0) OAK +3
OAKLAND
70.2
29.8



As you can see Joe Public is only backing two underdogs, both the current sexy public teams in Dallas beacuse of TO and Cincy becasue of how ESPN has jammed Carson Palmer down our throats. Any time the public backs a dog it sends up a giant red flag.

This is exactly how I would think Joe Public would bet this week, and if you don't think the books know this and set the lines accordingly stick to blackjack when you go to the dessert.

Obviously every dog is not gonna cover the number, but let's see how the numbers come in.

[Talking Poker]

Maybe I'm not readingf the numbers right or I'm just not understanding, but take this for example:

TAMPA BAY (3.0) Baltimore +3
Baltimore
63.4
36.6

Doesn't that mean that 63.4% of Joe Public are taking Baltimore? And if so, wouldn't we want to bet against them? Maybe I just don't understand the format you are using.

Also, keep in mind (and I know you know this) that sportsbooks are profitable because of the juice, not because Joe Public is clueless. If they take $11,000 in bets on Tampa Bay and $11,000 in bets on Baltimore, then they will pay out $21,000 total (original $11k + 10k winnings), regardless of who wins, keeping $1000 for themselves. THAT'S where the money comes from.... right?

[Penguinfan]

It's just the word wrap function, in the above example 63% are on Tampa and 37% are on Baltimore.

Fading the public on this one would be taking the points Baltimore.

Am I clear or am I cnfused?

The books would love to get equal action on both sides, but in reality they don't, and adjust the lines accordingly.

Open WIFI at airports rocks.

[Talking Poker]

I get it. I was reading it all wrong (top line as one line, and then the second line as who the Public picked - hell, I didn't know). Makes sense now.

Surprising how skewed the betting really is. You should track this for a few weeks.

[omahilo]

Hes 6-3 so far... This seems like one helluva experiment to do, I would love to see the final numbers.

[Penguinfan]

After a quick scan I have it as 9-4 in the books favor, rough say for Joe Public.

With the two Monday nighters all that's left that makes a winning week a lock.

Just as I thought too, the most one-sided game for Joe Public (Seattle) was a loser for them, I am real interested in seeing how that angle plays out.


Again that was a quick look at the scores before I run out of the hotel to work this morning, so could be off by a number or two, but 9-4 or 8-5 is a day I would take considering there was no work or handicapping involved whatsoever, simply going against the Public.

[omahilo]

I called that Seattle game...

I said in another thread when everyone jumped on that thing that DET would play alot better than everyone thought. I wonder if this way actually works... I wouldnt consider betting all the games but I would consider betting the games where the public is betting the underdog (JAX and CIN). Im not really too sure where you got these stats at.

I saw on the RX forum (a sports betting forum) that SEA was 91% to DET 9%,the public took that one in the ass.

We'll see what week 2 holds, a nice week if anyone bets all the games like this.

[Talking Poker]

Penguin - Did you bother to see how this worked out for Week 2? Is it too late now?

I think this is a very interesting theory you have...

[Penguinfan]

I spent the entire weekend with my head in my ass and didn't follow up on this.

I have handicapping friends who probably did and will find out.

I will make sure to get this weekends public numbers up early Sunday morning for everyone to follow/fade along.


Taking the kids for tonight and tomorrow but will start the weekend NCAA and NFL of Friday afternoon when we get back.

[jillaj]

I just went through the yahoo picks for week 2 and betting the opposite of the fan picks vs the spread would come out to 11 losses vs 5 wins. So if I did it correct this would have been a beat down for anyone going with this method versus the results from week 1. Last weeks scores were very lopsided wich is a big factor. I look forward to week 3 to see if it is more like week 1 or a continuation of week 2.

[jillaj]

For week 3 picking against the public would have left you with a mark of 7 wins 5 losses and 2 pushes. This week is much better than last weeks results but not close enough to week 1 either.

[Penguinfan]

Where are you getting this info, are you sure it's ATS and not straight up?

I would like to know where you are getting the number in any event, thanks.

[jillaj]

I am getting the numbers from yahoo's pro football pickem. Here is the link I am getting it from.



My numbers could be off. I have been taking the teams that the minority of people picked and took that ATS. I have been known to fuck up even the simplest of tasks before though.