Week 2 NFL Early check

[GeoffM]

I went 5-2 in the Bowmans pick 8 challenge, losing New England -7.5 (really wish they lost, wouldv'e been a survival pool disaster for some), with my key wins being New Orleans and St. Louis. On San Diego -3 tonight to have a nice 6-2 week. Looking to next week, here are some early lines I really like:

Tampa Bay +7 in Atlanta
New Orleans -1 in Green Bay
St. Louis -3 in San Francisco
Jacksonville -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Yes, I am taking 3 road teams, but Tampa is better than what they showed week 1, Green Bay downright sucks, St. Louis will light up the 9ers D, and Jacksonville is a solid team that will crush a Batch-led Steelers offense.

Thoughts?

[omahilo]

I like NO -1 vs GB... GB is just horrible, I think Farve might be done.

PICK: NO -1

STL -3 vs SF looks solid as well... SF might play these guys tough, they always have in the past with even a worst team than they have this year.

PICK: Undecided

JACK -2.5 vs Steelers... give me the steelers with the points. Batch-led steelers handed the Dolphins their asses. Roethelisberger could be back this week as well. I think the steelers will win this one outright.

PICK: Steelers +2.5

TB +7 vs ATL... This one will be close and I could see betting either side. TB played a very good defense last week and got shutout. ATL beat a team that could make it to the super bowl and looked very good. The thing is TB cant be as bad as they looked and ATL is INFAMOUS for having a huge letdown after a big win, thats why they have been no better than a 9-7 team in the past.

PICK: Undecided

[thrash1294]

ATl had to key injuries yesterday john abrams groin and he was huge and kerney bicep I WOULD CHECK THE INJURY REPORT...

oN THAT note T.b defense is getting old and there qb blows I like the falcons
If both play

STl looks good I wouls spend there

[GeoffM]

I have 1 unit on St. Louis at -3.

I will now wait for PenguinFan before making a decision on other games. If Big Ben is out, Jacksonville becomes a must-bet.

[Penguinfan]

After everything Joey Porter did for you last week you turn your back on him just like that and look to fade Pittsburgh? Based on what? You know about this Karma thing, right?


Personally I still have plenty to look at before considering a wager for week two, but I'll have something I'm sure.

[GeoffM]

I know what you're saying, but 2 things:
a) Jacksonville is at home;
b) Jacksonville is a far superior team to Miami, on both, yes, both sides of the football;

[GeoffM]

Also on Jax. now as the line has moved to 0 on canbet.

1 unit Jax.
1 unit St. Louis

[omahilo]

The public is on the steelers hard I see since the line has went to a pickem. I almost like a batch-led steelers team this week over a very very rusty roethelisberger-led team vs a good team.

I will wait this one out and see how the injury report shapes up.

[GeoffM]

The public got fucked up by the books the past week, 5-11 is what I saw. Shit, even I went 8-8 on every game and 6-2 on the pick 8 on bowmans.

[Reel Deal]

I like our chances against the Steelers, but it will be close. The Jags will benefit from the fact that they played a good 3-4 D in week one and did a good job of protecting Byron which is the key to the offense being successful. This one will likely come down to special teams and turnovers... should be a good one, can't wait!

[ChipFish]

Niners will win outright.

[Penguinfan]

Stardust virgin line had the Steelers and Jax at a pick to start with, the early, and considered sharper money went to Jax and pushed it to -1. Since then it has been bet backdown to a PK, probably by public money.

FWIW

[GeoffM]

-1, what does it matter. There will be a winner in this game and no tie. I not so worried about losing by a point either, I'd rather it be a win or lose money situation. Pushes can be boring sometimes.

[GeoffM]

I'm a Niners fan myself, but their defense couldn't stop the Ticats from scoring all over them.

[Penguinfan]

The difference between -1 and PK is obviously insignificant to the final bettor, but do you really think I would post something about sportsbetting that was useless??

The Stardust is the first book to release lines for the following week once the current week is completed, or near completed. Thus they are referred to as "Virgin" lines. Sharp bettors wait for these lines to come out and jump on anything they think is off before the line moves, thus a line that moves off the virgin number at the Stardust on Sunday night, even if it is just a point, is VERY significant.

Then to have that line move back to the original number tells me the sharp players moved the line and Joe Public moved it back, something to at least consider.

[ChipFish]

Banked.