How I will manage to be the first player eliminated form the 2006 WSOP...

[Talking Poker]

Mathematical Proof to follow...

Assumptions:
1. 8000 players
2. Forget all this Day 1a, Day 1b, etc. crap. Assume the first hand dealt is the first hand, regardless of the number of starting days.
3. 10 players per table to start.
4. 52 card deck, Texas Hold'em, etc, etc, etc - all the normal crap.

Proof:
-8000 players / 10 players per table = 800 tables in action.
-The odds of ONE player being dealt AA on the first hand are 220:1; therefore the odds of AA being dealt at a given table are approximately 22:1. That means that about 36 tables will have AA dealt on the first hand.
-Of those 36 tables, how many will have AA dealt TWICE??? This is where I usually like to call in the MathBabe, but she's not here (and she was WRONG about that last probability thing - hehe), so I'll take a stab at it:

With one player holding AA that leaves 50 cards and only 2 Aces left. So the odds of any ONE player (at that table) being dealt both of the remaining two Aces are: 2/50*1/49 = .08% * 9 other players at the table = .73%. Is that right? I have no idea, but let's just assume it is.

Given that, we can now deduce that the odds of AA being dealt to two players at the same table in the first hand are 36 * .73% = 26%.

(Oddly enough, if my admittedly suspect math is correct, this means we can EXPECT this to actually happen within the first 4 hands dealt at the tourney. Does this really happen every 3200 table hands dealt? I guess that sounds reasonable)

Now, back to fantasyland: With two players being dealt AA, there is a 95.65% chance of a chop, and a 2.17% that one of the players will win (each player has this chance, so it's really a 4.35% total chance).

That means that the chances of two players at the same table getting it all in prelfop (assuming they keep raising each other until they get all in), each holding AA on the first hand of the WSOP and one of them actually 4 flushing the other guy are: .26 * .0435 = 1.15%.

And we all know that is PLENTY to all but guarantee that it will happen to me. So there you have it, mathematical proof.

The good news is, ESPN will interview me, and I'm semi-confident I can (on camera) talk Harrahs into buying me into the 2007 WSOP as a pity prize.

[Talking Poker]

Shit.... that beats the hell out of bubbling.



I think.

[eejit101]

bubble boy gets alot of coverage.


I reckon your math is pretty decent there. nice job.

If i go, god willing, all in first hand, id literally be crapping myself.

[Robbr25]

At least you would get TV time, probably.
Worth a shot.
$10,000 for some TV time, sounds fair to me.

[Talking Poker]

Uh........................ no thanks.

[GTDawg]

You figured the odds wrong, dude.

You have to get dealt KK.

Flop is AAK.

Villian has AK. Oliver Hudson style.

I mean geez...you give us a situation where you get busted first hand and it doesn't involve Kod? The fuck are you thinking.

[Talking Poker]

Please.... you think I'm gonna go broke with KK vs AK on an AAK flop??? I don't think so.

Now, if the flop was AKK and all the money went in, I can picture him turning up AA and spiking his one outer for quads over quads, but no way am I going broke on the the first hand of the WSOP with anything less than the stone cold nuts.

[GTDawg]

What would you do if you get dealt KK first hand?

In MP and you raise to 4xBB

Big blind min-reraises you

You re-raise back

BB pushes

TP...

==================
I wrote this kinda fast and that actually screams AA

But, ignoring the above, what would go through your mind if you get dealt KK on first hand? Is there anything that would happen to get you off of it preflop?

[Talking Poker]

Well, from what you described, I think a fold is in order (and pretty clear). I mean, at BEST, he's also got KK, but it's a lot more likely he's got AA, so I'll just fold and start off the tourney with 9100 chips or whatever (first raise to 200, his min reraise to 350, my rereraise (which I may not even make) to 900ish, and then he pushes for > 10x THAT). No big deal.

Like I said, I'm not going to throw all my money in (especially CALL it all in) with anything less than the nuts. Not early anyway. That's just stupid.

[ChipFish]

I kind of figured Kings would be the answer.

[eejit101]

yeah, but i dont think on day 1 TP will put himself all in preflop with anything other than aces, in anything over a 3 way all in pot. 4way, and your aces are behind to the table.

Saying that, i dont think TP should EVER go all in with aces in a game where alot of money is involved

[PShabi]

If you bust THE first hand that you are dealt, I'll reimburse you for 1% of the buy in out of pity.

[Kurn]

I don't care how many active players are in the pot, or even if its the first hand of the WSOP ME. If I EVER fold AA preflop*, take me out and shoot me.

* - Super-satellite bubble situation where my M > 20 is an exception.

[Talking Poker]

I don't care how many players are in the pot either, I'll GLADLY go all in (and even CALL all in) with the nuts in Hold'Em (barring those few satellite bubble situations, of course), and the nuts preflop is AA.

I can and will easily fold KK preflop under the right circumstances (see GTDawg's example), but I won't fold AA.

[Kurn]

In that specific situation I'd consider folding KK. I might even actually fold KK. On the other hand I have never folded KK preflop and I'd have to tune out Dan Harrington saying he doesn't believe there's anyone in the world smart enough to be correct in folding KK preflop.

[Boobie Lover]

Ugh, obviously you guys haven't read "Tournament Poker for Advanced Players". There is a situation in which to fold AA, even in a non-sattellite tourney.

It basically goes like like this.

Main event of the WSOP, you have a paltry 30,000 in chips and are in last place with five people remaining. There are four stacks have exactly one million chips. The first player just goes all-in, the second calls that, and so does a third. If you find AA here, it is much better here to fold than to call. You are almost guaranteed (unless a rare tie occurs) a big jump up in money from the 5th place now to 3rd place you could find yourself in. The expect value of folding here is much greater than that which could be earned from you moving up in chips.

[Penguinfan]

Man, recently I have heard more of this kind of talk out of you than ever before (which was none).

If I pay for a hooker and send her your way will you snap out of it before you hit the felt?

[Zybomb]

Ive folded KK exactly once preflop (funny that it was at a lower limit too)
I wound up being correct in doing so this time, but not to remain results oriented, Id like to present to the situation to you and see if you think in the longrun this laydown is incorrect.

Heres the thread

[Talking Poker]

I think I could tune that out pretty easily given the example above. There is exactly ONE (reasonable - assuming not a complete bluff) hand that I can beat, and that's a seriously overplayed QQ. I suppose you could make a case for a seriously overplayed AK as well, but with me holding two Kings, that's not likely.

Anyway, factor in the liklihood of all the hands he could be holding - and even throw in 10% for a pur bluee with 2 undercards - and the math will tell you this is a pretty easy fold. And even if it comes out marginally +EV (it won't), I'd still fold. You don't win the WSOP by taking hundreds of coinflips. You win it be being patient and CALLING your money all in as a much bigger favorite than that (obviously pushing all in is different).

[Talking Poker]

Absolutely. There are a number of examples one could come up with like this. But TYPICALLY, folding AA preflop (barring some extreme example like this or a satellite bubble) is a mistake.

[Talking Poker]

I'll need to see a picture before I can answer that question.

Also, I'd appreciate it if you could ask her to not act like a hooker, and rather trick me into thinking I actually got lucky in picking up some random hot chick at the bar or whatever. That would be much better for my confidence than knowing you bought me some $3 whore out of pity.

[Talking Poker]

I stand by everything I wrote in that thread at a time.

I do some damn good analysis sometimes.

[Kurn]

I forgot this one. But this is a similar situation to the super in that the CEV of calling doesn't even come close to approximating the $EV of folding.

[Tony Cheval]

Damn that inflation!

[Penguinfan]

THREE BUCKS!!!! Where the hell am I gonna get that kind of cash?