The TalkingPoker.com Forum  

Go Back   The TalkingPoker.com Forum > All Things Poker > General Poker Discussion
Register Blogs Arcade HH Converter Calendar

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #26  
Old 05-21-06, 04:09 PM
Zybomb's Avatar
Zybomb Zybomb is offline
TP Live Ring Specialist
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 6,607
Blog Entries: 7
Zybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep Points
Default


Makes sense -- I guess the ultimate question in determining the EV of this play is how often you'd be called. Im assuming AA KK QQ only JJ and below folds, and AK folds (even if AK calls, thats actually great -- well as great as it can get if you're called, because we're probably a 60/40 dog, which means we'd win more than 1 out of 5)

The next question is that if you are sitting 6 max, how will the range of hands you are called by change? PERSONALLY, they probably wouldn't change for me (as regardless I dont want to gamble for a nice chunk of my stack for no reason agaainst an unknown player) but for others they may.

Ultimate exactly how often you will be called (and if you are called by hands that dont have you 80/20 it needs to be calculated that you will win more often than 1 out of 5) determines the EV of this play -- and even that may (actually will) vary from table to table/player to player
__________________
"Most of the money you'll win at poker comes not from the brilliance of your own play, but from the ineptitude of your opponents."
  #27  
Old 05-21-06, 04:57 PM
Talking Poker's Avatar
Talking Poker Talking Poker is offline
Adminimus Maximus
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Florida Coast
Posts: 27,480
Talking Poker has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsTalking Poker has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsTalking Poker has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsTalking Poker has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsTalking Poker has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsTalking Poker has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsTalking Poker has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsTalking Poker has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsTalking Poker has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsTalking Poker has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsTalking Poker has between 3000 and 3499 Rep Points
Default

Of course that varies. That's why in terms of EV, we talk about the long run, averages, etc. I was making estimates. YOU and I may fold JJ, but we both there there is some tool out there who is going to call with 88 and ATs.

All you can do is list the ranges of hands that will call, determine how often they will turn up in one of the players behind you hands, and then calculate how often you'll win in each situation.

YES, when ATs calls, you're not going to be a 4:1 dog, but certainly you agree that ATs is better than your random hand, so you are going to be behind... so adding that into the equation HURTS your overall EV - it doesn't help it. I was trying ot be as simple and conservative as possible, and I can not see how this could possibly be a +EV play - Under any circumstances. If someone thinks they can, please, by all means, spell it out for us - mathematically, like I did.
__________________

Got RakeBack?
27% at Full Tilt | 33% at Cake Poker | 30% at Carbon Poker
Closed Thread


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:45 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2004-2008 TalkingPoker.com