Penguin - I need a lock...

[Talking Poker]

NFL Sunday. From THESE lines:


Did I mention I went 6-0 last week?

Right now, I kinda like Chicago +5.5 at Pittsburgh.

Thoughts?

[PShabi]

Ummmmmm, yeah.

I'd take Chi at even.

[omahilo]

Buffalo +4 vs NE looks decent...

Buffalo blew a 20 pt lead last game vs MIA but beat the playoff bound Chiefs the game before that so Buffalo isnt playing all that bad. NE run defense and overall defense in general is horrible so McGahee should do well and Losman did have a good game vs MIA who has a better defense than NE this year.

My picks def. arent Penguin's but this would be a pick I would look at.

[Talking Poker]

Thanks omahilo - appreciate your feedback too.

You guys haven't been posting picks recently... still doing fairly well? OR has it all gone to crap lately?

[Akverno]

If the under is at 30 1/2 for chi pit that isn't a bad bet either.

[Talking Poker]

Can only bet the spreads.

[Penguinfan]

I'm running out the door to work right now and will reply when I get home.

Stay away from the Pittsburgh game, don't bet either side, WAY too many variables in that one.

[Talking Poker]

You're going to work at 3:45 AM? Damn.

Thanks for the reply... no hurry - any time Saturday is fine.

I really like Chicago, but will await your stone cold lock of the week

[Zybomb]

Ive taken two plays already Indy at -6.5 and Chicago at +7.5.

Ive baught a point for each game (I dunno if your able to do that TP)

With no Leftwich I cant see Indy winning by less than a TD, and the spread started at 7.5 and has gone up to 8.5 so it shows where the majority of bets are going thusfar. Jacksonville simply wont have the offense with their absentees at QB and RB to play shoot out with the Colts and their defense isnt strong enough to slow them down.

I don't know Penguin's secret information about the Chi/Pitt game (and he obviously knows more about sports betting than I do) but buying the point (my line was listed as 6.5, dunno y u have 5.5) I can't see the Bears defense allowing over 17- 20 points, especially to a miserable Steeler offense which is banged up. Chicago will manage to get 10-13 pts on the board, which should be all they need to not lose by over a TD

There are two others I am considering

Even at -14 I still love Denver over Baltimore. Random stat Denver is 6-0 ATS at home this year, and Baltimore is 1-5 ATS on the road this year

The last game which I like is Washington -4 over Arizona

[Reel Deal]

Z, you're right about the QB situation with Jax, Garrard is not as good as Leftwich but he is one of the better back ups in the league and is a mobile guy that can avoid the Colts rush. Fred Taylor will play (proabably getting half the carries while Greg Jones gets the other half), I think they should be able to run the ball on the Colts as they've done it in the past. The variable that worries me the most is that our starting center Brad Meester is out and this will be the first NFL start for his replacement (an Ivy league guy). As far as the defense goes, the Jax D is one of the only Ds in the league that have been able to consistently slow down the Colts (see 10-3 game earlier this year and both games last year). The D matches up well against the Colts, Stroud and Henderson can overpower the interior of the Colts line, collapse the pocket and make it hard for Manning to step up. Each of the games these teams have played the last two seasons have been close (splitting each year). It is tough to gauge this w/Garrard at QB and a green center, but I think (of course, I'm a homer), this one might be closer than people think.

Just glad I will have a sweet seat inside Alltel Stadium to take in all the action up close!!

[omahilo]

I just havent had time to look at many games as of late... Ive been really busy so I havent been able to post my picks.

[Chinakin04]

Hey guys...first post...sorry for being a crasher if you know who i am.

personally, i think NE-4 takes it. eric moulds is out of the game and i don't think the bills can stop tom brady.

OAK -3 (+105)...is that a joke? i know they are starting a new qb...but i wouldn't be surprised to see lamont jordan with 130 yards and 2 tds.

Easy sweetheart teaser: Colts/Jags OVER 29.5; Broncos -1.5; Bengals PICK; Seahawks -3.5 (on bodog)

[helmuths henchman]

My picks according to yahoo spreads:
Cincy, bears, KC, stl, san fran, and houston

[Penguinfan]

Thats when I start work every day, which is why you never see me at the 9:30 PM TP poker games.

As far as the Pitt/Chi game goes I just don't think Pittsburgh is AS bad as they have been playing, the Bears have won 8 in a row with the biggest margain of victory being 12 points against a sorry GB team. The Steelers will force the running game, results be damned, and Chicago will play balls to the walls defense. It will be a low scoring boring game that will come down to a turnover or kick return.

Also I have been at this long enough to know Vegas gives ZERO gifts during the year. The Steelers should not be laying 6.5 points to anyone right now. Throw in the 3 points for being at home and Vegas is telling us they think the Steelers are a 3 point favorite on a neutral field and a pick em in Chicago??? Seems a bit out of line to me and everyone will be on Chicago, stay away!

This is a brutal card this week, be certain of that. Of everything that looks playable I would say Cincinatti laying 12.5 to the Browns is as solid as this week can offer.

Cincy will put up points, way too many points for Cleveland to even be hanging around at the half. Cleveland knows thier season is over and they will be going through the motions, Cincy still has home field in the first round to play for and possibly a bye, they will come to play.

My favorites this week would have to be:

Cincy and Minnesota, but nothing looks like a lock and if you like Chicago then go with that.

[lightfungus]

I agree here. I think oakland beats that line without too much trouble.

[Talking Poker]

Thanks everyone for the advice. I've looked these over, and I have to tell you, I can't get away from the Bears.

One thing I wasn't clear about is that this is for a Fantasy League of sorts. You start with $10,000 in fake money at the beginning of the year and have to make bets each week. The top 15 teams at the end of the regular season keep betting all the way through the Super Bowl. The top 3 spots pay out very nicely when all is said and done (I forget how many spots get paid - but I need to make the 15 team playoffs before worrying about that).

Right now, I'm at a semi-pathetic $11,300, which puts me in 41st place. There were 104 people when we started, but quite a few have gone broke. 15th place has $35,200. The point is, I'm starting to feel the pressure and think it's time to make my move.

What I'm leaning towards now is $7300 on the Bears, $3000 on Oakland (Jordan is going to run all over the Jets), and I'm not sure what else. Probably $500 each on Indy and Cincy. We have to bet a minimum of 4 games.

The spreads this league uses are the ones in the FRIDAY USA Today. I thought the Sheridan ones reflected those, but it looks like they have moved, so I don't even know. Would feel a lot better if the Bears were getting 6.5 instead of 5.5 though.

GL me.

[Penguinfan]

I actually meant to bring this up earlier and in my ramblings just forgot.

The move from 3.5 to 6.5 is insignificant and what a lot of players consider a false move in the line.

Normally when a book is getting killed with too much action on one side they move the line to balance out the money a bit better. You can't tell me people are running to the window to bet the Steelers here, no way. The line should be moving the other way.

Reguardless if the line is 3.5 or 6.5 Pittsburgh still has to win by one more score than a FG, granted they could win by exactly two FG's but that still puts the game and spread on the line during the last drive reguardless and who bets a game if they know it's coming down to the last drive?

What this line move tells me is Vegas wants all the Bears action it can get, and that worries me.

[Reel Deal]

Boy did I get lucky with the Jags game... didn't put a lot on them but what I did was on a +9 line and had they not gone for 2 and made it at the end I would have lost.

[lightfungus]

So much for my call on the raiders...beat by the jets, sux for randy.

[omahilo]

hey TP...

Where is this fantasy league located, is it on the internet or what?

That sounds like alot of fun and might try to do that next year.

[Talking Poker]

Hit me up next year and I'll pass your info on to the guy who runs it. It's run via email, from a guy located in... Buffalo... I think? I've actually never even met him. He was a friend of a friend of a guy that I worked with like 6 years ago. No kidding.

It's a $60 entry fee, and he accepts Paypal. I'm pretty sure $50 of that goes into the prizepool and $10 is for the house (he does a lot of work with this throughout the year, keeping track of everyone's bets and doing the math and sending out the standings every single week, so that doesn't bother me).

[omahilo]

sounds like fun... I'll definately have to do that next year.

[TheMagicStick]

Give me the Cowboys +3 this week @Washington. If I were to bet one game, that would be it.