Joe Cassidy - Holy Shit!

[johnp158]

These are updates from last night at the 5 Diamond Classic at Bellagio ($15,000 buy-in)

Date / Time: 2005-12-14 23:04:00
Title: Joe Cassidy Wins a Huge Pot Against Patrik Antonius to Take the Chip Lead
Log: With the board showing 9s-6d-5d-Qh-Jd on the river, Joe Cassidy bets about $100,000 into a roughly $500,000 pot, and Patrik Antonius raises to $300,000. Cassidy makes an incredible call with Ad-7c (ace high). Sure enough, Antonius shows Ah-3d, and Cassidy's kicker plays to win the entire pot.


Joe Cassidy is our new chip leader with approximately $1.45 million, while Antonius is down to $500,000.




And not 30 minutes later....

Date / Time: 2005-12-14 23:32:00
Title: Glynn Beebe Eliminated in 32nd Place
Log: Glynn Beebe raises to $36,000 from the cutoff position, Joe Cassidy reraises to $136,000, and Beebe moves all in for $391,000. Joe Cassidy calls, and Beebe shows Ks-Jd. But Cassidy shows -- the Hammer! 7h-2h! Beebe is a favorite to double up here. The flop comes Qc-5c-5s, and Beebe is still in the lead with king high. But the 7d falls on the turn, giving Cassidy the lead with a pair of sevens. Beebe needs a jack or a king to stay alive, but the river card is the 2d.



Glynn Beebe is in shock as he is eliminated in 32nd place -- by seven-deuce. Joe Cassidy now has a huge lead with $1.85 million in chips.



Can you believe these plays? He must have had some SICK reads on these people. A7 in the 1st hand, and he has to be REALLY sure the guy doesn't have a pair in the 2nd one. Obviously he'd look pretty stupid if he was wrong, but these seem like the kind of hands that people would talk about for a long time. There's some interesting stuff about Davood Mehrmand, who's sitting at Cassidy's table, just raving over and over about the sick plays Cassidy's making.

[Spuddy]

The two-seven play is VERY reckless..... but he did commit himself and he probably hoped he had two live cards, which was the case. With two live cards vs two live cards its a near coin flip....

Gutsy.... most definately..... did it pay off? You bet

[kmb13592]

The only word that comes to mind for the play with 72 is stupid.

[Zybomb]

I agree, I dont think he committed himself to this pot

He was only getting 2:1 on his money, and at very best he was a 2 to 1 dog, potentially a huge dog

[Zybomb]

This is often misconstrued by people... it's really not near a coinflip, its closer to 65/35 when you have two under cards to someones two over cards

It's a gamble you have to take sometimes, but I think people make it more often than necessary

[Talking Poker]

Please define "coin flip." I think I'm going to have to disagree with you here.

[Talking Poker]

See, and I actually think people don't take it enough. 65/35 is pretty damn close to 2:1, so unless he's up against a pair of 8s or better, calling isn't THAT bad of a play. It's marginal. And if for some reason he puts his opponent on a small pair, it's really not that bad at all.

The problem I have with this hand was his initial REraise that got him into this mess. Of course, we have no idea what kind of read he had on his opponent. If he was coinfident that his opponent was on a steal and would fold to a big reraise, it makes sense (even though he ended up being wrong). But if he's willing to call the opponents re-reraise, why not just push in from the blind with the initial reraise? I'm assuming no one else was invvolved in the hand, of course.

[Boobie Lover]

The reason why I wouldn't put a player all-in there is that it looks too much like a reraise steal. I am trying to portray a hand, and if I push all-in, my opponent would certainly eliminate the upper echelon hands from my range since if I had one of those hands, I would try to make a reraise in which he/she would call.

[Spuddy]

Basically he isn't overly dominated..... is he losing the hand? Yes.... but does he still have fairly decent odds of winning....... YES.......

[johnp158]

I think we're a little unclear here on the meaning of coinflip. What are the odds of getting heads when you flip a coin? What about tails? 50/50. Right.

[Zybomb]

with a small pair wouldnt he be in worse shape than against 2 big cards?

[Zybomb]

I disagree, I would play steals and Aces the same way

[Talking Poker]

Poorly written by me. Just saying that if he puts his opponent on a small pair and pushes in, that's a really tough call for the opponent to make, and even if he doesn't he not THAT far behind. No, he's not a coinflip, but he's not THAT far behind.

It's really only 8s or better that pose a big problem for him.

[helmuths henchman]

I would think coin flip is between 40-60 to 60-40. 35-65 is more than a coin flip.

[Talking Poker]

Personally, I consider a coinflip to be no more than 55:45. When you get to 60:40, that's 3:2 which I wouldn't refer to as a coinflip - I'd refer to it as 3:2. Maybe some people call that a coinflip, but if so, they really should get some new coins.