Calculating Odds

[Nikita]

Ok, I've just started to learn about outs and figuring out pot odds--it has definitely improved my game and win percentage. But, I've noticed from some of your posts, that pot odds can be calculated pre-flop. I never considered doing this and actually (maybe I'm being dunce), I'm not sure how to do it. I understand how to do it, if I know how many outs I have, but pre-flop I don't have that information. Or do I? Are you just looking to get a pair? If you guys could clarify how calculating odds pre-flop works, I'd appreciate it. I hate calling all-ins and this will help me make better decisions on when to do so.

[Talking Poker]

I'll let someone expand on this more (I'm on my way out the door), but basically this requires putting your opponent on a hand (or a range of hands, more likely). Then it's just a matter of knowing how your hand measures up against that range of hands and making the correct decision based on what odds the pot is laying you.

Here's an extreme example, but it will illustrate my point: Say you in deep in a tourney and the blinds are 1000/2000 plus a 100 ante. With 10 players at the table there are 4000 chips in the pot right off the bat. Now let's say you are in the BB holding 72o. Everyone folds to the SB, who goas all in for 2200 total chips. You are holding 72o, but you HAVE to call. Why? Because it's only 200 more chips to you, and there is now 5200 in the pot. The pot is laying you 5200:200 = 26:1 odds and there are NO two cards that you could possibly be a 26:1 underdog to. Even if he's holding AA - or worse yet, 77, this is a good call.

Does that make any sense?

[jimmym]

Calculating Pot Odds is basically what TP has just wrote, Now I dont win much and the reason being is that I forget my own principles of using pot odds to my advantage. But when I do play in a poker frame of mind (expecting to get slated for my last comment) and use pot odds in every circumstance I must say I seem to actually make some $.

Now what am about to write is mostly from one of my poker books (not mine litterally) but it is a bloody great piece of work and one which will help any poker player.

The concept of pot odds is easy to learn and in my opinion is one of the most important concepts of playing winning poker, especially no limit holdem.

It's simply, the relationship, expressed as a ratio, between the size of the bet you are making or calling, and the number of bets those bets in the pot. For example, if there is $12 in the pot and you need to call a $3 bet, you are getting 4:1 pot odds, expressed as 4:1.

To have good enough pot odds, generally you need to have better pot odds than your chance of winning the hand. So if you think you only have a 20% chance to win the hand, you should only play that hand if there is 5 times your bet or more in the pot. This is a risk/reward ratio - if you risk losing the bet, you need to have a big enough reward to make it affordable.

Pot odds can be used during different situations, including calling bets or drawing to a straight or flush. For example, if you need to call $5 with a 25% chance to win a hand, there needs to be 4 or more times the size of your bet in the pot, or $20.

BEFORE THE FLOP: especially when you are playing weaker hands trying to hit a flop, ex. suited connectors and small pairs, be aware if the pot is big enough for you to take a flop and try to hit your hand. To have good enough odds, generally you need to have better pot odds than your chance of winning the hand. So if you think you only have a 20% chance to win the hand, you should only play that hand if there is 5 times your bet or more in the pot. This is a risk/reward ratio - if you risk losing the bet, you need to have a big enough reward to make it affordable.

AFTER THE FLOP: This will mainly be applied when you are drawing to a hand, but the same rule applies, you must have better pot odds then your chance of winning, so it will be profitable in the long run if you hit. To apply this, you need to know how many outs you have, and what percentage this gives you to win the hand. Below is a chart drawing odds from a deck of 47 unseen cards.

Good players will also use these when defending the best hand. When you are playing with the best hand, especially against loose players, you can put in a bet that gives the player bad odds to call if you think he will play anyway, or if you want to just win the pot right away you can put an oversized bet in that is clearly not an affordable price to draw. This is just one of the ways that you can tilt pot odds in your favor.

DRAWING ODDS FROM A DECK OF 47 UNSEEN CARDS
Outs.......2 Cards to Come........1 Card to come
20..........67.5%.....................43.5%
19..........65.0%.....................41.3%
18..........62.4%.....................39.1%
17..........59.8%......................37.0%
16..........57.0%......................34.8%
15..........54.1%......................32.6%
14..........51.2%......................30.4%
13..........48.1%......................28.3%
12..........45.0%......................26.1%
11..........41.7%......................23.9%
10..........38.4%......................21.7%
9............35.0%.....................19.6%
8............31.5%.....................17.4%
7............27.8%.....................15.2%
6............24.1%.....................13.0%
5............20.4%.....................10.9%
4..............16.5%.....................8.7%
3..............12.5%.....................6.5%
2..............8.4%.......................4.3%
1..............4.3%.......................2.2%


BLUFFING: Pot odds must also be considered when bluffing. Over and Over again I have seen people bluff all in to attempt to steal the smaller blinds: an incredibly high risk for a very small reward. The mathematical rule for bluffing is that THE POT ODDS MUST BE GREATER THAN THE ODDS OF SUCCESSFULLY PULLING OFF THE BLUFF. For example, if you estimate the odds of bluffing and winning at 1 in 5, then there must be more than 5 bets in the pot when you attempt the bluff. This means that you can bluff 1 10th the size of the pot and lose 9 times, and you win in the long run if you win the 10th time. HOWEVER, be careful when playing against bad players, who are often "un-bluffable". Make sure you consider that your chance of bluffing bad players is very small, and use this move scarcely.

As you can see, pot odds can make you a winning player in many aspects of the game, and it is essential to always be thinking about pot odds in the risk/reward game that is poker.

[Nikita]

Ok, that makes sense and actually clears up a few things for me. But what I'm not sure of now is what hands give me what odds. Modifying your example above, what if the SB goes all in for a total 4000 chips. So a total pot 7k and 2k for me to call. So now I have only 7:2 or 3.5:1 odds. What hands are good to call with now? I think this is actually what I am more confused about and don't have the answer to.


EDIT: Thank-you to jimmym too. I think we were typing at the same time. And I actually never thought to consider pot odds when bluffing, it definitely something to consider. (And I actually have a drawing odds cheat sheet. It so helps with online poker when you have a very limited time to do math calculations in your head.)

[Zybomb]

Nik... if you don't already own it, go grab Harrington on Hold Em Volume 2. Besides being one of the best poker books out there, it has a specific Heads Up section, and included is every hand, and it's percentage favorite against a random hand....great information to have when wondering about a question like this

[Talking Poker]

Another thing you may want to do is play with this for a while:


Just type in lots of hand combinations that you can think of preflop and check out the percentages. The one thing you wil get out of it, if I had to guess, is that "bad cards" aren't nearly as big of an underdog as you would think. This is not to say that you should play them, but when faced with an all in situation preflop, you should take a good look at your pot odds before deciding to fold...

[Nikita]

Thanks, Zy and TP, I will take a look at both the book and odds calculator.