Parlays, Reverses etc

[Zybomb]

Penguin (and others if you agree or disagree) I was wondering why you felt parlays were wasting money. Here's how I see it

3 team parlay: On average roughly 6:1

So comparing it to betting individual games.

If you go:

3-0 $600 (+$300)
2-1 $-100 (-$200 )
1-2 $-100 ( Break even )
0-3 $-100 (+$200)

A 2 team parlay 3:1

2-0 $300 (+$200)
1-1 $-100 (-$100)
0-2 $-100 (+$100)

Assuming on an EV stand, wouldnt this make sense?

Also what are peoples opinions on reverses?

[Penguinfan]

We'll look at it a couple of ways, starting with a 3-teamer.

You start with your $100 and place a bet and win, you now have $200, you again risk everything and win you have $400, for the third game you risk everything and win, you now have $800. If you played a 3-teamer with the original $100 and won all three game you would have $700 (your $100 and $600 profit) you have picked the same three winners and gave the book a free $100 and you had at risk the exact same starting money in both cases.

We can argue about who's money it is once it's in your pocket and the above example is kinda extreme but it is the long run real story. People say it doesn't make sense to keep doubling up like that, but thats exactly what you are doing in a parlay and just paying extra juice to the book.

Also, how many times in 100 picks will you go 3-0 on a specific 3 plays? Not nearly as often as you will go 2-1 or 1-2 and in each of those cases you have significantly more money left by straight betting than the zero you will have in your pocket playing a parlay. If you are good enough to go 3-0 consistantly then you should be making enough money by straight betting that you book will cut you off before the end of the season.

Short term, for fun, trying to make a big score, those are all reasons to play a parlay and there is nothing wrong with it, but non of those things lead to long term success. I do this for long term profit so I have a healthy hatred for parlays. Do I ever play them, yea, now and then I will throw down on a 10-team round robin, which is a type of parlay, but I know what my expectation is and have never been 10-0 on it, 8-2 is the best I have done which is still profitable in that type of bet, but I don't play them often and don't think I will ever go 10-0, it's more of a challenge to me than it is a money maker.

It's a matter of preference, do you want to play 5/10 and grind out your meager earnings or do you want to play in the $100 ultra turbo tournament that is starting in a few minutes. Some would choose the first, some the latter. I think long term we know who will come out ahead, short term anything can happen.

[omahilo]

I agree with Penguin... long term you just cant go 3-0... even your 1 unit plays (your best plays) each week will go 2-1 or 1-2.

I will do a parlay every so often more for fun than anything else.