Huge Saturday NHL card and....

[Penguinfan]

I can only find one decent play in the bunch.

Washington/Carolina OVER 6

It may appear to the naked eye that Washington is not be scoring well, but they have scored 2,3 and 2 against Fla, TB, and the Islanders, none of them are defensive slouches with the Isles being the possible exception.

Washingtons defense can be had and so can Carolina's. Hurricanes are putting up decent numbers averaging almost 4 goals a game including a slow start.

Just seems three goals from each of these two teams is not much to ask. I think Carolina wins this game as well, but with the line -160 I think Vegas is getting a bit greedy here. I'll take a shot at the total instead.

Caps/Canes OVER 6

GL

[omahilo]

I will take this bet as well... gl to us.

Hard to believe there isnt more +EV plays on this big day of hockey.

[Talking Poker]

Question for you.

Intertops has the over at 1.7692:1 (I prefer decimal format - feel free to talk me out of it). The under is 2.1:1.

I understand what that means based on what the payouts will be, but why is that? Is it because they think the over is a favorite (buy 7 would be a dog, obviously)? Or is it because they have taken too much action on the over and are trying to get people to bet the other way, to balance things out?

Also.... does it make sense to use 3, 4, 5 sportsbooks, to make sure you are always betting with the absolute best odds, even though the lines themselves may be the same?

BTW... like I said, feel free to tell me why +110, etc. lines are better than decimal format. My brain just seems to process decimal format better, I guess...

[omahilo]

it always better to look at more than 1 book IMO...

ESPC if you look at the moneyline... like 1 book could be NYR -1.5 (+200) vs FLA and another book could be NYR -1.5 (+225) vs FLA.

Both lines are -1.5 goals but book A offers +200 so if your unit is 100, you would win 200 but book B offers +225 so if your unit is 100, you would win 225.

Most of the lines themselves are about the same like NW vs Mich St today was between +12.5 and +13 so there is no pt in jumping all over and depositing into another book to get +13 when you can get +12.5 at your 'home site'. That half pt just isnt that meaningful to me.

On the other hand if I would of place a bet on the moneyline today on NW and got it at book A for +315 then find out later I could of got it for +375 at another book, You would of cost yourself some money, protential alot of money if your unit of betting is bigger.

I dont understand the decimal system at all so I wont touch that.

[Penguinfan]

Thats actually my bad, I should always post the line with a play, which in this case is -130 for the OVER.

Why do I prefer the line that way, well thats just always the way I've seen it since I started wagering. It was always -110 on everything and since you know thats the standard wager you can see how big a favorite a side is when the line is -130 or -200 or -115, etc...

Usually in Canada the decimal format is used and it's definatly easier if you play parlays, which I do not.

Yes, they think OVER is a favorite, but do not want to move the line to 6.5, why? I have no idea. In my experience they are taking money on the OVER but think it will go UNDER so they would rather charge you the extra juice instead of raising the line and risking people taking the UNDER.

This brings up something I wanted to post a while ago, it is absolutly false that sportsbooks want equal action on both sides of a game, simply for the reason that it just will NEVER happen, it won't even fall within the 10% difference they need to guarantee a profit. They make money off of losing players, which unfortunatly is most of them.

Quick question, let's say a book takes exactly $1000 on both sides of a game that is -110, they are guaranteed $100 profit, but who pays it to them?

[Penguinfan]

ABSOLUTLY, I can't stress this enough. In a situation like this where the best players in the world MAY hit 60% every game counts. I would hate like hell to lose one more game than I needed to because I bet into a bad line.

There are also times, especially in hockey where you can bet both sides of a game and lock up a profit no matter what happens. It's called scalping and happens like this:

Let say the Penguins are playing Columbus, two horrible teams and one book has:
Penguins +110
Columbus -120

With a line that cose to even it is not hard to find another book that has:

Columbus +100
Penguins -110

Take Pittsburgh at one book and Columbus at the other for the max and you CAN'T LOSE money, at worst you break even and if Pittsburgh wins you make 10% on a bet that you couldn't lose money on.

[Talking Poker]

Well, everyone does, but in this case, it specifically comes from the winners, right? The losers bet and lost $1000, while the winners bet $1000 and only were paid $900 ($1900, counting their original bet).

As I see it, they took $1000 from both sides, but then only passed on $900 from the losers to the winners, keeping $100 in the process.

Right?

I would think they would want the betting to be as balanced as possible - not necessarily bet for bet, but in the long run. It should all work out for them provided they are making good lines.

[Penguinfan]

Wow, I'm impressed. Most people mistakenly think the losers pay 10% juice because it is just standard that if you want a $100 bet and lose you owe $110 when in reality you wagered $110 wether you want to look at it like that or not.

Your description was right on.

Initially, and it still holds true for small local bookies that they want equall action on both sides, or as close as they could get. Now though for the big guys and for Vegas books they just want as much action as they can get becasue they know most players are losers in the long run while the book basically has an unlimited bankroll to survive any potential short term loss, something most players don't have the luxury of.

[omahilo]

this one didnt hit but always next time

Penguin is now 6-2 (I think).

[Talking Poker]

Of course it did. This is the second Penguinfan lock I've actually bet on. His picks aren't the problem - *I* am the problem!

Actually, I bet on Baylor too, so it's all good.... I'm 1-2 with the Penguin now. Hoping he posts his NFL picks soon.

[Penguinfan]

Baylor came through so I think the running total is 7-3 thanks to the Crapitols not showing any sign of life whatsoever last night, I'm still scratching my head on that one, I mean how the hurricanes hang a shutout on anybody? WTF?

Couple 1-1 days in a row are a good example of variance in this game TP, 4-0 nets me $800 profit 2-2 loses me $80 or a -$880 siwng in this case, thats kind of swing is what makes this such a grind.

Like I said, posted on here is 7-3, which of course I will take, which would be a profit of $350 for a $100 player, keep grinding........