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#1
10-31-04, 05:00 PM
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Low connectors against a medium raise
Danny Ns column in cardplayer magazine made me think about this situation a good bit: he sees 75 suited and raises, and a few seats behind gets reraised for about 3 times the size of his raise. He calls with the logic that he thinks the raiser has a high pair and if he catches his straight or flush, he can break that stack (also that his cards are completely live).
Now heres what Im wondering. Its along the lines of implied odds here...So lets say youre reading your opponent for AA, which is what you want here. For calculating your implied odds when you hit, how much of your opponents stack goes into consideration here? If you flop 689, how sure can you be your opponent is going to push in against a non-threatening board? This question is significant, because it determines how much of a raise you can call preflop with that hand. Now lets say you misread him and he is only holding QQ...you call, expecting your opponent to push against a non-threatening board, but if you play back at him, those queens are a LOT more likely to hit the muck than the aces, and I honestly think it is close to impossible to distinguish AA from QQ preflop...How does that play into your overall implied odds? Same thing goes for a strong ace, big slick etc...all those hands will be played quite similar, and while your cards are still live and non-threatening, those hands cut down severely on your implied odds, i.e. your opponent is far less likely to push if you hit... So, smart play or not by Danny here, and in general with the medium suited connectors? Defendant |
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#3
10-31-04, 06:48 PM
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i think it is a smart play by danny, but only because he can get away with it. i woul dnever be able to make that play. my 75s would be in the muck preflop, but he is good enough at playing postflop that he can get away with these types of plays.
this just indicates how important deception is. it seems like danny, and most other top pros, would rather have a deceptive hand than a big hand. |
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#4
10-31-04, 06:53 PM
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What's right for a pro ...
is not right for me.
In theory, I understand Daniel's logic. But in the games I play, I can't see putting that much faith in 5/7 suited, pot odds or no. I'd like to say that I'd factor other elements into play -- the nature of the table, the size of my stack, etc. But the truth is, I'm not going to defend that hand against a decent size raise. Good post, BTW. |
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#5
10-31-04, 07:37 PM
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I like connectors when I have position... if its folded to me on the button or one position off the button I will usually raise and if one of the blinds have a hand they might reraise but if its down to me and the BB, the BB might just call, trying to trap me with AA or another PP.
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#6
10-31-04, 07:49 PM
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Daniel's theory is based entirely upon implied odds. Why do you think someone would fold QQ on that flop but not AA? That makes no sense at all, the only difference between those scenarios would be if someone held KK or AA against the QQ. If you hit your flop with suited connectors like that, and you know your opponent has a high pocket pair, then your implied odds have paid off. Simply make an overbet, make it look like a steal, and the other guy WILL go all in with a high pocket pair 99% of the time (unless hes a genius or a pussy), and you will get paid off beautifully. If your opponent had AK or AQ or something, then they will only call with a flushdraw, and you can (and should) go all in on the turn if a blank hits.
-jB |
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#9
10-31-04, 08:51 PM
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....you tell the difference based on the hands that player has shown down and what his play style is. If the player is afraid of you (suited connector user) then they will play very defensively, probably bet their overpair for value, and fold to an all-in from you. If the player is very smart and is capable of putting you on hands preflop, he might fold to certain bets here (not afraid of a straight, but afraid of 2 pair or a set)
these descriptions are crappy but what i mean to say is, it all depends on the other player's previous track record -jB |
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#11
10-31-04, 08:59 PM
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Im very curious to know what would compel you to fold QQ on an innocent little flop like that... any supertight players are going to reraise with KK or AA preflop, and in a tournament if you commit a very strong player to a pot, then they will probably push in instead of giving someone with suited connectors a chance to hit a flop. The likelihood of someone having KK or AA in this situation is very low unless you have a tell on them that says otherwise, and the only logical reason for you to fold here is if you fear a set, or if you have a very strong tell on someone that says they called preflop with suited connectors and have caught 2 pair or a straight. dont let people on straight draws bet you out here, and dont be afraid of a trap. most importantly, dont fear AA or KK on this board... protect your hand so someone with AK cant call and catch on the turn and river to break you.
-jB |
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#12
10-31-04, 09:03 PM
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Only in tourney
I only go with media suited connectors in a tourney and when I am low stacked. I figure I have a better chance of breaking any high pairs.
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#13
10-31-04, 09:15 PM
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One big indicator in this specific situation...a standard raise out of medium position, followed by a smooth call of a reraise usually says big holdings.
Strong play after the flop here should send the other player in the tank because with this flop theres 3 logical possibilities...overpair, set, or bluff. Remember 2 things, the big value of your hand is noone puts you on it, and were playing a pro game here. Im not saying the queens are an easy fold here, but by no means an impossible one. Defendant |
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#14
10-31-04, 09:32 PM
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yes a fold here would be extremely difficult, I would almost only fold here if i suspected a set. I've only ran into an overpair in this situation once in my NL cash game playing, except it was my KK vs AA. I was shortstacked preflop with blinds at .5/1, and a little pissed because my QQ didnt hold up against an idiotic all in preflop play with AK. I had $12 or so left, so i raised it to $6 in late position (I had caused a Helmouth worthy scene when the guy rivered his ace vs my QQ, so I knew everyone would expect me to be tilted). the AK jackass called from the button with AQ, and my friend in the big blind reraised me 8 more. I knew he mustve had something huge, probably JJ-AA, but I just didnt want to believe that he had AA at that point. The pot was pretty huge anyways, so entering as a 4 to 1 dog would give me the appropriate pot odds to call even if he did have aces. I called my last 5.50 or 6 or whatever it was with KK, the AQ guy folded face up and thought it was an epic laydown... what a jackass. anyways the reraiser DID have AA, and i ended up losing the pot. I didnt feel bad at all though, for a couple of very important reasons:
1) I put the AQ guy on just that; somethign like AJ, AQ, or AK. This makes the chances of AA half as likely as normal, so I basically HAD to call the reraiser (statistically) 2) When i lose a pot when i put ALL my money in with the best hand, i cause scenes. When i lose because i misplayed a hand, i dont care at all because theres no one to blame but myself. the first reason is probably what convinced me to call, because for all i knew the reraiser could have QQ, and with an ace PROBABLY out of the equation, the chances of someone having AA was around 500 to 1. the reraiser is pretty tight/aggressive and if he thought i was overplaying my hand from the button, it would make perfect sense for him to reraise with QQ from the big blind. looking back, i probably would have called anyways just because i didnt want to believe he had the aces (even if i had not gotten the clue that the other guy had an ace), because I wasnt good enough to fold KK preflop back then. It was a good learning experience though. -jB |
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#17
11-01-04, 03:54 PM
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I think Danny's play would work only in live tourneys, particularly if you have a strong reputation. I would never make this play in an online game where it seems like people will play with about anything suited.
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#18
11-02-04, 03:50 AM
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you are probably right that this play would work better live than online, but i think that you can pull it off in either setting. if your table stays together for a while, obviously the chances of getting a good read on someone go up, and that makes this play that much more profitable.
plus, the chances of someone else hitting a higher flush, with only a three flush on board are not that good. it happens, bu tnot that often. |
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#19
11-02-04, 05:01 PM
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it doesnt matter whether you play suited connectors online or in person, the reason you play them in the first place is to catch an unlikely flop and get a lot of value out of a little investment. the 'suited connector theory' is based on the math that says how often you will catch a monster flop to break a monster hand. statistics dont change from online to live play, so neither should your play. even if people do play 'anything suited' online, you probably arent going to run into a higher flush or flush draw with suited connects, and you're looking to hit a straight or 2 pair or something like that on the flop anyway. making a flush with low suited connectors isnt very profitable unless you're heads up and you put your opponent on a monster hand, like 2 pair, a set, or a straight. suited connectors being suited isnt what makes them so great; its just another draw to fall back on if you dont hit the flop.
-jB |
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