Party Poker setup? I know it sounds stupid...

MadNinja · #1 03-17-05, 05:39 PM

Without trying to sound like a cry baby I'd like to get some feedback on this. I am very curious about the hands that I get beat with the day following a big payday. This is not the first time that it has happened and I'm wondering if anyone else has noticed a similar pattern.

Yesterday on Party Poker I played a $50 table and got up to over $300. I thought it was kind of odd the amount of Aces I had been dealt, but since I kept winning with them I didn't mind. However, today I was playing and noticed something a little fishy. Every hand I had won up until the river (eg. QQ vs. 10-10, AK vs 99 with K on the board) and every straight I had made got beat out on the river. Not to exaggerate but at least 80% of my straights lost to a flush and every pair I got dealt and flopped a set with got beat by higher set. Not to mention the numerous 2-pair hands that got beat by sets or straights.

I understand that these things happen in the game and am aware of the so-called guaranteed "randomness" of the hands. But in the same breath I am really curious to understand why everytime I win big it sems as though I am "set-up" with losing cards.

Before you go telling me to stop bitching (which is what I would probably say to myself) I want you to know that I played relatively tight and conservative as opposed to too loose and aggressive once I started winning. If you were to examine most of these hands in question I feel that most of you would've made the same calls.

I can understand losing on the river a couple of times a day but I lost EVERY time that I had an all-in call. I'm talking hands I should've won. KK lost to a set of 3's on the river, a nut flush on 4th street lost to a flush on the river, etc. And if this was a tournament I'd completely understand.

I was wondering if anyone else had had the same problem. I have had this happen about 4 or 5 times now. And as much as I know it sounds stupid I honestly feel like it was "set-up". While I know this is probably not the case I was wondering if anyone had any feedback to calm me down a bit (after I unistall Party Poker for the 5th time!!!!). Unless of course this is what they call catching COLD CARDS?

Thanks.

MadNinja · #2 03-17-05, 05:45 PM

Unless of course I am just a complete retard and in that case void the first post.

Tony Cheval · #3 03-17-05, 07:11 PM

well to start with, if you got outflushed on the river, you didn't have the nut on 4th street. Other than that, I can understand how you feel at least, I could start a thread in Bad Beats from the last couple days titled 'KK, Why Have You Forsaken Me?'

Gordogg · #4 03-17-05, 07:35 PM

I don't see the benefit of them setting players up to lose after they win big. You are just running bad man. That was me two weeks ago, second best hand time after time. I'm doing ok now, and you'll pull out of it too. It's called variance. Or maybe your opponents read the "How to beat Party Poker" book shilled on their site 24/7, heh

Tony Cheval · #5 03-17-05, 08:16 PM

Yeah, I've been running very up and down lately. Have to keep muttering my new mantra, 'I will not be Brian...I will not be Brian...'

Talking Poker · #6 03-18-05, 01:40 AM

Looking back at short term results, you can find pretty much any pattern you like. I have friends who insist (Warning: this is not a joke) that Ks and 5s usually hit the flop together on Party Poker. Uh huh, whatever.

It's just a short term random thing. If it happens 1000 times in a row, let us know. But before you do, first come up with a motive for Party Poker to run anything but a clean game. And think for am inute befoe you say something about "money." Think long and hard about how much money they make in rake through running clean games every single day. Then think about how much:
1. It would cost them to develop some crazy system that is out to get you.
2. It would cost them to pay off the programmer who wrote said system because if word of it ever got out.........
3. They would lose everything.

In summary.... It's not only not worth it, but it would be extremely STUPID for them to run anything but clean games.

MadNinja · #7 03-18-05, 01:21 PM

I do agree that they would have much more to lose than to gain but I am curious if they infact program certain hands to clash. How many times have you seen AA vs. KK? The odds of being dealt each hand is .5%. The other day I played a tournament and over the course of 3 hrs. I saw AA vs. KK 3 times. I know anyhting can happen in poker, it's a weird game, yada yada yada... but it does peak my curiosity a little.

I know they're not trying to set any of us up, but sometimes it's all too conincidental.

Talking Poker · #8 03-18-05, 05:06 PM

Play in a live game for a while, and you'll quickly realize how silly it is to suggest that online poker is rigged.

As for AA vs. KK........ the odds beaing dealt AA or KK are 220:1 / 2 = 110:1. At a table with 10 players, that means AA or KK is going to be dealt every 11 hands - practically once per orbit. That means the odds of seeing both of them at the same time are 11:1*11:1 = 121:1.

So, on average, you should see this matchup three times every 363 hands. So yeah, seeing this over 3 hours of online play... sounds about right to me.

(Smart people - is my math right?)

Tony Cheval · #9 03-18-05, 05:42 PM

I can't speak to the actual calculations, but at the end you apparently forgot that he said he saw it *3* times in 3 hours, which would be somewhat above normal but hardly outside the realm of probability.

Talking Poker · #10 03-18-05, 05:45 PM

I didn't forget that at all. Playing 363 hands over 3 hours online isn't all that difficult. And that's just the AVERAGE. You could see it in back to back hands, and that doesn't mean the site (or live game) is rigged.

Tony Cheval · #11 03-18-05, 05:58 PM

Ah, I guess *I* forgot about the possibility of multitabling, fair enough. Either way, I certainly agree that it CAN and WILL happen.

Aequitas58 · #12 03-18-05, 10:42 PM

Good post.

Just to add to that: @ a home game, third hand after sitting down:

Me: AA
Other Guy: KK
Other Guy #2: QQ

Sucks for those two, but I liked the result. Throughout the rest of the night, everyone kept talking about, "What are the odds of that happening!?" (More info about this hand somewhere in my blog.)

MadNinja · #13 03-19-05, 12:59 PM

Okay, I get your point.

ChipFish · #14 03-19-05, 03:10 PM

Your home game is Rigged!

SoCalBoss · #15 03-20-05, 01:09 AM

Exact same scenario AA vs. KK vs. QQ. Then I noticed that the dumbass host had pulled out a pinochle deck...funny.

Aequitas58 · #16 03-20-05, 02:29 PM

LOL. I already checked the cards - they are unmarked. The dealer (the host) isn't smart enough to move cards in the deck.

Given the alcohol, marijuana, and "level" of players at this game, it wouldn't matter if it was rigged ... $1/2 NL w/ these guys is kickball.

Penguinfan · #17 03-20-05, 05:07 PM

The cashout curse got me today at Stars.

4-handed in a SNG two guys including the shortest stack in the hand, big stack as AsKs with a flop of Ad 9s 7s he moves in, short stack calls with 8d Jc, WTF is that about? He has exactly 3 outs the way I see it, only a ten saves him and it better not be the 10s or the big stack busts him with a flush. Obviously he catches a 10 for a straight to stay alive. VERY NEXT HAND I get AA with a flop of A 6 9 all hearts and I do not own a heart, he is first to act and pushes in, he has me covered, but after seeing him lay terrible hand after hand I can't just assume he has the flush so I have to call (you can argue this all you want, I'm not laying down a set of Aces heads up with anyone), what does he have you ask 7d9h! Again, WTF?? Of course he catches a heart on the river to make a 4 on the board flush and bust me out on the bubble.

cash out curse I tell you.

Been dabbling in PLO8 recently so I decide to play a smaller SNG in that since there was 8 registered and I didn't have to wait, about 10 hands or so into the game I have K23J with the KJ suited in the samll bling with no raise and I limp in and get a good flop of A48 giving me the nut low and it gets bet and raised quite a bit at which point I am sure I am getting quartered in the deal, but can't fold it. Turn is a J giving me more false hope and I am forced all-in at this point so you can guess what is coming next, or at least I could, river is a 3 counterfitting my low, I still have A2348 for the low but OBVIOUSLY I must have cashed out today because someone had 2-5 to make a wheel.

Coincidence, probably, but I love a good conspiracy theory so:

CASH OUT CURSE I TELL YOU!