A lil' bit of "Streak Theory"

[lightfungus]

I was sitting in my Linear and Discrete math class watching my professor draw crazy graphs that looked like spiderwebs when I began to think about poker. Thinking about poker during class is not something I dont do, but today I was thinking about how I might have just been on fire the last two weeks. I have turned $50 into $750 at the 25NL tables at PP. However, in the past 2 days I have begun to fluctuate up and down pretty much hanging around the same number or maybe going up like 10 bucks a day where as before it was more like 60 or 70 with a good 3 hours of play, maybe more (I did the 20% on like 520 and got that bonus which is included in the amount).

Anyhoo, we all recognize there are streaks. I think I actually fooled myself into thinking I had finally "got it," the winning poker way anyway. I still think I have improved as I have constantly over the past year and a half but at no different rate than usual.

Sooooo, I was looking at this hot streak and wondering what it was, how it occured and why it may have come to an end. I thought of my hands the past week or so, and they have been good. I have gotten my fair share of pockets, and low pockets have been overpairs probably half the time, I have been hitting flops and getting the cards to hit with. The past day or so I have been folding more and not hitting as often, and my pph (pockets per hour ) have slowed a little, but nothing that should drastically influence anything but making a little less money if i stick to my game. Sooo, I looked into the mentally that you retain after these streaks where you are playing well and winning.

You become confident and arent afraid to call someone down. You risk money, and in appropriate places if you are playing well. You also EXPECT to make money after so many days of good positive flow. The last one there is what I think affects me. When I stopped getting those cards and money stopped coming in as fast as it normally does, I got a little more aggresive and forced some hands and tried to trap for the big win on others. Its like tilt, except tilt after things not being good enough. So, I have stepped back a little and reminded myself that I should be happy with positive even if it isnt as much as it was, because I used to be happy with positive. I guess I just got spoiled.

Anyway, I wanted to strike up a conversation on streaks. Because I was thinking that streaks may come to an end because of mental attitudes as opposed to the cards controlling it. Like streaks could be like a sin curve no matter what. Kinda like a rabbit population in a closed habitat: Reproduce like crazy, food runs out, rabbits die, lots of food, reproduce like craZy and so on.

This may be obvious to people but I would be interested in any other ideas people had on streaks.

[2Tone]

Good post. As for streaks within a session … one of the things that I think makes limit so much easier to master is all you need is the discipline NOT to change your play based on your wins/losses. I should have enough in front of me so I’m never feeling short stacked, and be unwilling to re-raise if I’m reasonably confident I have the best hand. If I lose to a bunch of bad beats, I can re-buy. On the flip side, if I’ve doubled my buy in when I flop a full house, that still doesn’t mean I should chase gutshot straights. Poker is a game of odds, and running hot/cold doesn’t change them.

But when I’m playing 25NL on Party, and get up to $40, I figure I SHOULD be playing differently, and be willing to invest a buck or two on suited connectors that I would fold if I only had $20 to play with. When and to what extent to make these adjustments is something I’m still working on.

[Aequitas58]

// snip long post.

This is a topic which can be discussed on many levels. You could have a streak of bad cards (but still manage to pull out a win!), or you could have a streak of great cards (but lose to suckouts -or- get no action). By your post, I'm assuming you're talking about running hot (making money) and then running bad (where you keep getting chinned).

For the recreational player, a cold streak usually amounts to bad luck. "I couldn't get any cards..." "Players got so lucky," etc. While good players sometimes say this to themselves, the better player can identify the problems in his game, which inevitably led to a losing session. Losing sessions are going to happen, and to deal with them you need to understand variance. (I'm not suggesting that you don't, but this is just how I see it.) Discussing variance, conversely, leads into a discussion of bankroll management. The recreational player is always "taking a shot" at a bigger game. Their roll can't support the swings, streaks, or variance inherent to that game, and they find themselves cursing bad luck.

From my experience, if you stay well within your bankroll limits - whether L or NL - you'll be able to build while you're running hot and easily absorb the losses when you're running cold.

By the way, you mentioned that you turned $50 into $750 playing $25NL. Excellent pull. You should feel confident enough to sit at the $50NL tables. If the increase in money still scares you, then stick w/ $25NL until you get over $1000. Re-assess your game at that point and decide if you're ready for the next level.

You also mentioned discrete mathematics... you a math major? That was my major in undergrad. Now I'm 2 mos. away from being a lawyer. Go figure.

[lightfungus]

industrial engineering...


if you dont know what it is look it up i guess cuz you could learn more there than from me

[BrianSwa]

This is a great post and pretty much explains why I bust out soo much. Usually I will hit a great streak and make really good money and then I will feel so confident that I will move up levels that my bankroll CANT handle and will bust out. This is a major problem that I'am working on and getting better at. Another thing I do alot is hit a awsome streak and then a bad one and try to force hands and end up busting out once again.

For example the other night I sat at a $10 max NL table on full tilt and made about $150 in a couple hours the next day hit a down swing and didn't get up from table when I should of and busted out. Major problem for me which I'am working on, It is not fixed yet but it is getting alot better. I'am still busting out time to time but getting better at stopping when I know im not playing smartest. I also notice that when I hit a good streak and make alot at a single table I start playing wreckless and playing cards I wouldnt if I had a lower stack. I personally dont think a stack should change the way you play at a table, In a tornament yes but in a cash game no.

[2Tone]

I'd defer to some of the better NL cash game players on this -- Chip, TP, Lou, care to weigh in? -- but I see not loosening up some when you have the biggest stack as a missed opportunity. For one, you can really bully shorter stacks from late position. Yes, if they go bust they can just rebuy, but they aren't going to want to call your big bet to find out if you are bluffing. The other thing is that with a big stack you can call suited connectors or low pocket pairs. Make the straight or a set, and you have a very well disguised hand for trapping. But if you have to play tight as a result being short stacked, you are going to have to let those hands go by.

[BrianSwa]

let me re-phrase for you all, I dont think loosening up with a big stack is good for player like me.

[Aequitas58]

Well, all that is true. You can do more with a bigger stack. Like Johnny Chan says: the player with the most ammunition will win the war. Or battle. Whatever it was.

I don't get reckless when I double or triple my buy in, but it's amazing how more more respect you start getting. Wouldn't you agree?

[GeoffM]

Couldn't agree with you any more. January was an unbelievable month for me, but February I pretty much broke even or may have lost a little (however, I did not play much).

It is all about streaks. Sometimes the cards come your way and sometimes they just suck, or other people suck-out on you. The main thing is to be able to maximize pot revenue when you have the winning hand and get out of any pot when you don't. Don't donate your money all the way to the river, playing too aggressively.

I took a step back after pissing away $100 on 1 short Party session at the end of January. Since then, I have played about 250 raked hands on Absolute and won $70 (+$20 bonus, so $90), and played my 520 raked hands on PP, only to be down $65 (thanks to a $80 bonus which I will clear in 40 hands, I may make a slight profit).

I guess the point is, yes streaks are a part of life. Just like when a team goes on a streak, then slide. The cards have a lot to do with it, but also your frame of mind is a big factor. This is 1 reason why I'll rarely look at my numbers during the month (I have started to keep a record of winnings since winning the first MTT I joined), because it may tell me that "Hey, I'm behind for this month". Like you said, once you go on a massive streak you start to expect more, and I myself have this tendency, but again I think we should realize that poker is on recreational time and we should be happy we even get a $1 an hour profit from it, as long as we're having fun that is. But of course, human nature is to be greedy.

[bdawg31]

I definitely see a difference when i have doubled up - i get a lot more aggressive and can win a lot of hands on semi-bluffs or even big raises preflop. Or a big raise preflop and then come out firing. I can sort of 'sense' when it is time - and i make that move with just about any two cards. if i get caught - no biggie, just change gears.

[lightfungus]

Ya need money to make money, thats how i feel. In fact on Pokerroom when I was trying to make my money back, I would search tables where guys were buying in with their low chip stacks trying to double up. Most of the time, with plenty of money to cover them I was able to play my hands correctly where I could bully them into calling my hand that was better than theirs.

[Tony Cheval]

This is something I've been getting better at myself, started accepting those prop invites at Inter, and discovered that the shorthanded players there tend to be WAY too loose. Fast money AND fast raked hands? Sign me up.

[tazmision89]

When I hit streaks, I ride them for as long as I can. Once I take a couple of bad hits, I take a couple of days off just to get my marbles back together again.

Turning 50 to 750 is fantastic!!! Congrats!!!!

[SirFWALGMan]

I have been told you absolutly should not play much differently against people when you have a large stack with the exception of other large stacks. The advantage in a cash game of a large stack is the fact that you can threaten the other large stacks with losing it all because you will make each card they draw cost more and more. The small stacks dont care because they can REEEBUY! It is not like a tourney where the big stack can bully you around because there is no REEEEBUY! Anyway, dont ask me any questions about why this is. My thinking up until now had been "Yeah, Bully people", but smarter people than I have said this is wrong. What do I know, I am an NL newbie!