Gus Blows the WPT Championship

[VeryMoonFunk]

Gus had a huge chiplead over David Chiu with over 84% of the chips and then blew it.

David Chiu came back to win the $3.3 million prize.

I think gus had like 23 million to davids 3.5 mill when heads up started.

sucks for gus but hes rich so i dont care that much.

[lightfungus]

That sucks. I think someone who has never played poker before could win that 3-4 times out of 10.

[Kurn]

Unless the players are insanely deeped stacked, (which is rarely the case) HU at the end of a tourney is decided by 2 factors: Luck and aggression. If you know how to play HU short stacked, the best player in the world is at best a 7:5 favorite over you if you know enough to keep the pressure on.

[lightfungus]

I did exaggerate, but even with an 8:1 chip lead you are only a 7:5 favorite against a good player heads-up?

[Talking Poker]

He means with even stacks, I suspect.

But 84% of the chips is only 5.25:1. Depending on the structure, the first all in might be automatic for both players, and if the shorty doubles up there, he's now only about a 2:1 dog. Double up again and he's got the chip lead.

84% sounds like a lot, but it's really not that much. Or, I guess a better way to look at it would be that 16% of the chips is more than you might think.

This is a good example of why when people make deals at the end of a tourney, the short stack usually takes a deal he shouldn't... or the big stack thinks he deserves more than he really does. HU, things can change dramatically FAST.

[lightfungus]

K. Now I just sounded like an itiot.

[Kurn]

8:1 advantage is extreme, but my point was, HU with shallow stacks and increasing blinds is ruled by the cards.

The key mistake any player can make is folding too often. The small stack only has to double through twice to alter the dynamic. The first is easy since the pro will call <12.5% of his stack (remember, blinds are already in) with a huge range. If the amateur gets good cards, the next one changes the chip count to almost dead even.

At that point the pro is at a HUGE psychological disadvantage. He is in a classic no-win situation. He's supposed to beat this guy. Nobody will play up his win. Its ho-hum. But if he loses it's "How can you lose to that guy???"

The exact opposite is true for the amateur.

The classic example is Farha's inability to call Moneymaker's bluff when every instinct is correctly telling him it IS a bluff.

[lightfungus]

Interesting points about the psychology of the situation. Another testament that long term success in poker takes some mental toughness. The better your skills get, the more mental battles you have to win.

[Talking Poker]

You know, I talked to Sammy about that hand a few years ago (quite a few now - I think it was in '04), and he said "Everyone says how great Chris's bluff was, but it wasn't. *I* played the hand badly." You're exactly right - he knew he should call, but he didn't want to lose to a clearly inferior player like that if he was wrong.