Playing some 25nl again

[Akverno]

So, through my first 300 or so hands playing 25nl on full tilt I'm running at 29/23.5 and 80bb/100. I wonder if this is sustainable

On another note, the competition on full tilt seems to be really, really weak compared to Poker Stars. I didn't have anyone play back against me on a single hand where I wasn't dominant, it was kind of nice to three bet pre flop in position and have my CB take it down like 90% of the time.

[Talking Poker]

Your numbers might be a little bit different had not gone the other way.

Glad you are liking Full Tilt.

[Akverno]

I'm definitely running well at the 25nl, through 1444 hands I'm still at 45.78 BB/100. Still at about 29/23.5.

My positional stats are sick though, I'm profitable at every position with UTG being the most profitable.

[Talking Poker]

How does your look?

[Akverno]

Below is my game analysis graph and luck graph.

[Akverno]

Below is my poker grapher graph.

[Talking Poker]

That should be a pretty good reality check for you. You are running really, REALLY hot.

Read melioris' posts in this thread:


Keep playing, but don't get too discouraged when your numbers eventually come back to earth. In the long run (I think - someone please correct me here), we should "expect" our win rate to end up closer to where the Sklansky Bucks line is, right?

And yours is actually negative right now.

[melioris]

nah, I think you got it wrong here. Akverno is winning everything w/o SD, as the SD winnings is at 0, but total winnings is at $300. So, until the tables adjust to him, he should be able to sustain this winrate indefinitely, as theortically, the hole cards he is playing are not influencing his winnings.

[hackers238]

Maybe theoretically, but I think that perhaps the hole cards were influencing the plays he made, and without those hot hole cards, the same plays probably wouldn't get made.

Looks to me like people might have liked calling you up until the river, then said **** THIS.

[Talking Poker]

So.... the difference between the red and blue lines (SB and SW) tells us he is running well in those situations. But the much higher green line (total winnings) says he's winning lots more pots without showdowns. Right?

So the "expected" longer term results (assuming everything stays exactly the same, no one adjusts, etc) would really be:
Green line - (Blue Line - Red Line).

Right?

[melioris]

Ok, I think I am being dumb, but I don't get what you are saying.

The colors are unnecessary descriptors. His total winnings (shown on graph) is his non-SD (not shown) + his SD (shown). The Sklanksky bucks line is only as good as it is calculated, and I have heard that it is calculated poorly in pokerEV, so I don't put a lot of faith in it. But looking at his SD winnings ($0) and his total winnings ($300) it tells us that he is winning all his monies in non-SD pots. Extrapolating out from this, akverno is aggressive postflop, firing multiple streets and winning a lot of pots (probably not with the best hand) by folding people out on the flop, turn, and river. if we plotted his winrate in non-SD pots (total winnings-SD winnings), the slope of that line doesn't have to change. Does this make sense?

So, theoretically, as long as he continues to break even in SD pots, he could maintain his current winrate as long as the tables do not adjust. The problem with this style is that 1). it is very exploitable and 2). it is actually difficult to keep your SD line around the break even.

I would hazard a guess that Akverno is running well not because his total winnings line is so far above his SD winnings, but in fact the opposite. I think Akverno is running hot because his SD winnings is too high compared to where it should be to maintain the extrapolated non-SD winning line. IE, if he is that aggressive and taking down pots, when he has been getting looked up his has had the goods more times than he deserves to based on this style.

Does this make sense?

[Talking Poker]

Yeah, mostly.

And I was only referencing the colors because I thought it was easier to quickly look at the graph and identify a color rather than say "Total Winnings" and make you go to the key and see that that's the green line. I figured you'd trust me to use the key correctly.

I thought that the SD winnings and Sklansky Bucks lines were related, and in the long run, should be expected to even out. I thought the SW line was actual showdown results and SB was, well, SB - saying what your EXPECTED return would be based on equity when money goes in before the river - that's why they run mostly parallell, right?

And if that's the case, the difference between them is the variance part. And of course the difference between the Total Winnings and Showdown Winnigns is Non-Showdown winnings. You are saying the same thing, but just differently and using something that's not on the graph:

TW = NSDW +SDW
so
TW - SDW = NSDW

See? Simple algebra. Same thing.

[melioris]

dick

[Akverno]

Tables sort of adjusted to me last night, I ran not so well.

Had a lot of people fire back when I three bet pre flop w/ hands like AK, 1010, yadda yadda when the board came up not friendly.

I had more people fire back on continuation bets then I'm used to and had a few nasty hands all in (tptk vs. flopped set, first hand the guy was at the table).

Melioris was correct in assuming that I wasn't getting looked up very often.

For the first 2k hands or so I was taking down a ton of pots completely uncontested. My guess is that as I near 10k hands my showdown winnings and my total winnings will start to converge a bit as I get looked up more often.

I am at -$9 in showdown winnings, +$284.60 for non show down. I'm playing a pretty aggressive style right now, I'm trying to direct the action at my tables.

Up until last night, I had been three betting fairly light while in position following it w/ a continuation bet like 90% of the time. It was working very well, last night not so much. I'll continue to play aggressive as hell at the tables tonight but wait a bit for stronger hands, afterwards I'll take another look at the numbers and see how I'm doing.

[Talking Poker]

IMO, that is an excellent style for low limits and even higher ones if you are at the right table. It works great against the loose, passive, uncreative types.

[hackers238]

Great style, but not so much at NL50 on FTP, or so I hear. People get much more aggressive, ie playing back at you with air and playing monsters fast all the time.

Works well for NL25 though

[Akverno]

And now I'm not running so hot, that's two nights in a row of having people play back at me. I'm still up a decent amount for the past week or so but not running nearly as hot as I was.

As people started playing back at me or calling me down light, I adjusted and just started running cold (AA vs. flopped set). AK blanked on the flop/turn a handful of times w/ three bet pre flops.

Oh well, back to grinding it out for a while, hopefully I can find tables with passive players.

Edit: On the good side, I've earned almost two buy ins of rake back in like a week.

[Akverno]

Well, it's now been an extremely frustrating three days.

I haven't ran this cold in poker in a very long time. I whiffed on more flops and got played back on than I can count.

I probably flopped a dozen sets or so in the last 2k hands, didn't win a single pot over $5 and lost two or three while deep stacked.

Anywho, I'm gonna take a break. The slow internet is killing me too (I have half the time that the normal person would to make a decision).