SNG Strategy I

[Kurn]

As TP suggested in an another thread, I'll take a stab at hitting some of the key points in SNG strategy.

To start with, STT SNGs are the most thoroughly mathmatically analyzed form of poker that exists (because most SNG decisions are pure math). ICM (independent chip model) is generally the most cited source of late game SNG analysis. While I'm not a pure ICM wonk, I intuitively understand the theory, which basically is all about making the proper late game moves that mathmatically increase your theoretical share of the prize pool.

Thus we begin with the idea that the key concept in SNG strategy is understanding $EV vs CEV. The other main concept is that of non-exploitable strategy. I'll hit a couple of points in this post and refer back to these ideas.

Concept 1: The Early Stages

Basically, all the best SNG players advise being the tightest nit on earth in the early (and even the middle) stages. I've read some that advise playing ONLY AA-QQ, AKs in the first two levels. I'm not that tight, but I'm getting closer. I saw one post on that other forum where a player had raised AJs 1st in from 2 off the button, 7-handed, 25/50 blinds and a stack of 1365, and while he was asking for post-flop advice, the best posters there all immediately said "fold preflop."

Lets analyze this going back to the concept of $EV vs CEV. ICM teaches that your stack size as a percentage of chips in play is exactly equal to your share of the prize pool. Thus, every time you put chips in the pot and subsequently fold, you lose money. Thus you only put money in with strong hands, and if it is AK and you miss you DO NOT c-bet EVER, unless your opponent is weak-tight post flop. This is extreme, but it is the type thinking the best SNG players use early. Wasting chips early is a sin.

non-exploitable strategy

This basically means that you should not adopt a strategy that is ostensibly +EV if an opponent can adopt a counter-strategy that turns yours from +EV to -EV. So, if you raise preflop with range x, but will fold subset y of that range to a reraise, a thinking opponent might exploit you by expanding his reraise range and making your strategy -EV.

The classic example of non-exploitable strategy, is bubble time, equal stacks od < 20 big blinds, 1st in from the small bling you shove any 2 cards. This straegy is clearly +EV because at roughly equivalent stack sizes, your single opponent will fold at least 87% of the time. Note that since he cannot make you fold, it is impossible for him to adopt a strategy that will make your shove of any 2 -EV. The tighter his range, the greater your fold equity, the looser his range, the greater your showdown equity. When you shove any 2, the best your opponent can do is reduce your EV to 0, by calling with any 2, and nobody will do that unless effective stacks are < 5 big blinds.

Multi-street strategy, wtf is that?

Once you get past the 25/50 level ('Stars structure) effective stack sizes will be such that, even if its not yet just a preflop game, play on the flop will likely commit your stack, so you can rarely float a flop and make a play on the turn. You may run into clueless folks who will underbet the flop and turn and let you chase a draw cheaply, but going back to $EV vs CEV, you are usually making a mistake to fall into that (though I'm guilty of this too often)

These are just a couple of basic points as an intro the SNG theory. I'll let you digest those (especially those of you playing these alien games) and make some replies. I'll try to answer them as best I can. bear in mind, I am by no means a world-class SNG player, but I have read posts from the best and tried to learn from them.

[de-coder]

Great post! (couldn't +rep you this time though... sorry) This seems to very much be the strategy used on poker after dark. I always found it very hard to believe how tight these pros were - even guys like Gus and DN.

I've really tightened up my own tournament play as a result of that - overall I think it seems to work, but I don't really have it down yet. It's really hard to fold some of those hands and not try to autosteal the blinds when on the button.

[hc422709]

I could

Just for Clarification, We are supposed to be really tight preflop ...
how bout the flop/turn? ie. if we have middle pair or Top pair weak kicker.

[de-coder]

This doesn't make a lot of sense - if you play this tight you won't have anything as weak as middle pair with a weak kicker, in fact you'd never have a weak kicker at all.

[hc422709]

OK, bad example... how bout ur holding KK and an Ace comes up on the flop? or the board pairs up, 4 suited cards at the turn?

Now that I think about it, would it make sense to just try to put all your money in the middle as soon as possible? regardless of scare cards.

[Invigilator]

I like this question. The A is especially difficult for me here. I would imagine that preflop play with KK would be to gear more towards minimizing postflop decisions. However, if you are the initial raiser, get one call and the A hits, is pushing the flop still positive value?

[Kurn]

In the early stages, if you raise KK and get a caller and the flop comes A-high no draw, unless your gut tells you differently, a bet is in order, but re-evaluate on the turn if called.

In the middle stages, unless you are one of the big stacks at the table, your decision will be either shut it down or get your stack in the middle.

FWIW, playing as weak tight as the SNG wonks suggest is not easy for an old limit cash game player like me. My poker instincts say keep betting and make them tell me I'm beat. SNG's, however, are not like any other form of poker.

[Kurn]

The problem with blind stealing in the early and middle stages of a SNG is that you're laying between 5:3 and 3:1 and the stacks are still big enough for the blinds to defend with a wide range and exploit your cb when they think you miss. That's less a concern in a MTT because the money is way off in the distance and you need to make chip accumulation plays on later streets. While in both cases (STT vs MTT) $EV + CEV in the early stages, the theoretical downside of a lower chip count is magnified in the STT.

Now, once you hit that 15 bb or less stack, blind stealing becomes more important, but then there's no raise-fold option. You assess the blinds' calling ranges and push or fold.

[Kurn]

You need to either have thick skin or you need to block chat when you play mid-late game ICM strategy. Players who are clueless about ICM but have read a few poker books will berate and belittle you when you are only shoving or folding.

What is interesting is that once all your pushbot actions have built up your stack to 20+, your 2.5 - 3.0 bb raises suddenly get more respect (they think you're playing your cards when in reality you're playing your stack), and the smaller raises become (at least for a while) less exploitable.

[Oceanwaves91]

For a STT, is this all still within the mindset that you are playing for third, and once there, playing to win?

[Talking Poker]

Great post, Kurn. Thanks. Looking forward to reading more.

[Kurn]

No. You are neither "playing for 3rd" nor "playing for 1st." You are always playing to maximize expectation. Theoretically, at the end of each hand, you own x% of the prize pool (before the first hand, all 9 own 11% of the prize pool). You are always playing to maximize that number.

[Talking Poker]

I moved your other thread (your results) to the Railbird section.

Question for you: Are you familiar with Collin Moshman's book, ? I bought it the other day, not because I intend to read it any time soon, of course, but I needed another book to get to $25 for free shipping at Amazon, and this one looked like it would be a good addition to my poker collection.

From glancing through it, it looks VERY good to me - incorporating the concepts you are talking about, but in a HOH format.

Thoughts?

[Kurn]

Last Thursday on my way to my home game I stopped at a Barnes and Noble to look for Moshman's book, but it wasn't in. I'll try Borders this weekend. It's on my list.

[Talking Poker]

Amazon, dude (link above). 34% off, no tax, free shipping ($25 min), fast delivery, and you don't even have to leave the house!

Would love to read your review after you get your hands on it.

[bdawg31]

Dont keep us in suspense Kurn!!

[Kurn]

Bear with me. The next one may come as early as tonight. It will probably be 3 early or middle stage hands for comment.

[bdawg31]

Sounds good to me. Not trying to rush you or put pressure on you - just wanted to make sure that you know that there is interest in this.