Is this just variance?

[MathBabe]

Check out my winnings graph for the last week. Is this just normal variance? I've never had a downswing like this before.

I've lost $315 in 1,348 hands of $2/$4.

EDIT: I'm looking up more info...

sjay2k reminded me what else I meant to say... I'm admittedly not a winning player, but I don't lose as much as I gain in bonuses. For the first 7,000 hands I played at Full Tilt I averaged 0.73 BB LOST per session.

In the 1,000 hands starting on the 10th, I've been down 8 BB/100. This bothers me.

[MathBabe]

The graph didn't attach... let me try that again...

[sjay2k]

surely some of it is variance, but nobody could tell just from the graph. you'd have to compare these results to your long term results. if you're a proven winner in these games, i wouldn't worry too much.

[Talking Poker]

Anything can happen over 1348 hands, but only you know how you've been playing over that stretch. Chances are bad luck is at least a part of the downswing (as good luck is a part of the upswings), but you're probably not playing perfect poker either. Post some hands and maybe we can help you plug some leaks.

[2Tone]

It is certainly possible that you have just hit some very bad luck. You aren't there yet, but once you lose 100BB at limit, you really have to look at how you are playing hands. Good for you for keeping such good records. What hands have been the most costly? Have you been playing too long, or too many tables at once?

[Kurn]

Instead of pointing at variance, look for some flaws in your play. -315 in 1348 hands is less than 0.5 BB/100 hands.

Tolerances in limit are very narrow. One preflop mistake made semi-regularly can lead to between one and two compounding errors per session. That can be the difference between plus or minus a portion of a big bet per 100.

Post some hands.