Value of Kurn's Entry...

[Talking Poker]

I was wondering, so I did some math. Not counting the trip itself and only looking at the prize pool, here is what Kurn is about to take a shot at:

By my math, that's a $2,055,000 prize pool. Divide that by 27 players, and each entry is worth $76,000!!! Whoa. Chop it up, dude!!!

I was going to suggest that Kurn and I swap a piece of each other, based on the value of our Bahamas tourneys, but my entry is only worth $7800, meaning I'd have to give him almost 10% for 1% of him just to make things fair, and even though I fully expect Kurn to finish in the Top 3 of this bad boy, I'm not sure that's a swap I want to make. 10% is a lot. And for 1% of Kurn, the MOST I could make would be $10k if he takes the whole thing down, meanwhile, he'd have a shot at (I'm guessing, since I don't know what the payouts will be) 100-200k if I win. Granted, the chances of me winning are much, much smaller than Kurn's - hell, he's guaranteed to cash - but still.

It's fun to think about though.

[eejit101]

now the killer, would you pay $76k to enter? I sure as hell wouldnt. Surely you have to factor the weird payouts to lower that buyin amount?

[Kurn]

Lets make the numbers even stranger.

I beat 6150 people in Round 1. 960 people in Round 2, and 1209 people in Round 3.

That's 8319 runners not here + 27 at the final 3 tables, making our "entry fee: $246.23

Strategy wise, I've been mulling this over since I got the e-mail with the structure. Lets work backwards from the final table and see what I need to do.

270,000 chips in play means average FT stacks of 30,000. 'Stars extimates FT at about 7 PM which, with the level 4/5 break factored in, translates to 1,500/3,000/a200. So a Q of 1.0 = an M of 4.75. Average stack doesn't cut it at the final table.

So, while the tournay opens somewhat deep stacked, the final table will not be so unless the chips are very skewed. I'd say that what begins as a waiting game becomes a hunting game somewhere around level 4 or 5.

Fine. That gives me 3 or 4 hours to assess who can be hunted and who I should avoid. I does seem clear that I can't wait until we're down to 13 to speed up. I do think I can avoid taking big risks until we're down to 18.

Of course, all this may change once the tourney starts and I see how the field is playing, but the bottom line is that the FT looks like a crapshoot, so I'd better make hay while the sun shines (somewhere between 18 and 12 players).

[eejit101]

theres not THAT much difference (i know im talking about $15k, but in the whole scheme) between last and 14th.

You HAVE to think that by searching eveyrone elses highest cahses they will be playing for a $20k minimum, as to be honest 75% of these guys have won fuck all so far on stars, now we know that they can play at other sites, but we are only going with what we have.

So, surely playing agressive and NOT sitting back int he first 3 hours is where you can accumulate chips in this event?

[Kurn]

You misunderstood what I meant. With 1 hour levels early, I can be more selective with my aggression early. trust me. If this looks like a rock garden, I'll notice and take advantage of it. But on the other hand, I've stalked a few of these players in the past 2 months, and the ones I've watched tend to be LAGs early in tournaments.

[eejit101]

thats why your search is hidden, good thinking.

Looks like u go every angle covered, may your cards hold up

[Dodoubled]

Think about the number of people overall who didn't make it out of Round One. I think I personally played in three of them, and the closest I got was like 150th. They ran these things for at least a month straight with a max entry of 10,000 people per shot. Just based on the sheer number of people who tried out in this thing and failed ... man, that's a hell of an accomplishment.

[Kurn]

Try 5 months, 4 per day, 6 days per week.

[Dodoubled]

OK. Even if the average is 5,000 per time (and I'm sure it was much, much higher than that), you're looking at about 125 days, so that's about 500 events. So that's 2,500,000 people who tried out for this thing.

At least. I'd bet it's closer to 3,000,000-plus.

[eejit101]

werd, so the entry fee is $0.86.


Kurn ill give you a WHOLE dollar back for a 5% stake. What do you say?