Making SuperNove Elite...

[Talking Poker]

A guy at PTP (very respected MTT player) is making that he will make SNE this year... WHILE maintaining his regular MTT schedule.

He's taking up to $50k of action. I'm betting $1k against (for now).

Given the below rules that I typed up myself, what are your thoughts? I think this will be EXTREMELY difficult.


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1. Mossified84 will reach Supernova Elite (1,000,000 VPPs).
2. Mossified84 will play a minimum of 2930 scheduled online MTTs between Stars and FTP, with an average buy in of at least $150.
3. Mossified84 will play a minimum of 200 scheduled online MTTs in each of the months of October, November, and December.
4. Other than the above tournaments, Mossified84 will only play $1/2 NL and lower cash games.
5. Mossified84 will play at least 50 live MTTs during the year.
6. Mossified84 will not play cash games while playing 4 or more tables of MTTs.
7. Mossified84 will not play any cash games between 4PM ET and 11PM ET Sunday through Wednesday of every week.
8. Any points from SNGs Mossified84 plays will be deducted from his total at the end of the year when comparing to the 1 million point requirement (ie, SNGs don't count).
9. Mossified84 will not let anyone play on his account at any time during the year, except to take over for him deep in a tourney upon emergency. Mossified84 will set up a webcam upon request.
10. Mossified84 will honor this bet under all* circumstances, including but not limited to family/medical emergencies, natural disasters, etc. Mossified84 MUST reach SNE status (1,000,000 VPPs) in 2009 in order to win the bet.

*The only exceptions to #10 is if Poker Stars leaves the U.S. Market or does away with their VPP program. In that case, the bet will be void.
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[Wes]

i'm planning on doing it this year. anyone want to bet some action against?

[Wes]

and he has maybe 1% chance of getting there with these restrictions, and that is with me being optimistic.

[Talking Poker]

I don't know enough about the Stars VPP program and how difficult it is to earn points, but this seems nearly impossible to me, given all the restrictions, that he will be playing a full schedule at the WSOP this year, etc, etc. I "only" bet $1000, but I'm tempted to bet more like $5k.

Aaron Bartley bet $25k against him.

[Talking Poker]

Oh, and without the above or similar restrictions, absolutely no way would I bet against you. GL.

[JDMcNugent7]

Is someone escrowing all the $?
Do you have to give him the $ now and can't touch it all year?

[Talking Poker]

He is not escrowing his side (like I said, very respected, trusted guy - I met him in Vegas over the summer). For the other side, it depends if he knows you or not. I didn't have to ship anything and most people taking the bet don't, but if he doesn't know the person, yeah, they would have to escrow.

[Mogul4]

1. Whats escrow??

And that is a hell of a lot of restrictions. I guess he could get his MTT schedule over by the wednesday then multi-table $1/$2 x 12 or something. Even with this, i say 5% he makes it

[JDMcNugent7]

well can I bet through you then? I don't want to have $ locked up for a year but I do want in on the bet most likely.

I'll prob bet 2k or less

[MAYHEM45]

Is he giving 1:1 odds? that just seems so ridiculous, does he hate money and/or life?

[Spuddy]

Reminds me of

And we all know what happened there.........

[Wes]

are the 180 person sngs not counted? cause without them it is going to be impossible for him to win.

[JDMcNugent7]

did every1 get paid? never saw that thread before

[Talking Poker]

Escrowing is having a third party hold the funds to ensure payment at the end of the bet. ie, if YOU (someone he doesn't know) were to bet $100 against him, he would require you to escrow that money with someone (like me). If he fails, you'd get your bet back plus the money you won from him. If he wins, I'd ship your money to him.

[Talking Poker]

Yes, 1:1.

IMO, he's delusional, but I think he really thinks it is possible and is planning to play poker for 18 hours per day. Without the restrictions (just play what you want when you want to), I'm sure he's the type that could do this no problem...

[Talking Poker]

Yep, he cracked and shipped the $$.

[Talking Poker]

Correct. No SNGs. Only "scheduled" (meaning not SNG-style) MTTs.

[Talking Poker]

I'd rather not... nothing personal, of course. I just wouldn't want to be on the hook if anything happened... then again, when he fails, I guess I'd get your winnings. Hmmmmmmmm...

Seriously though, think about it as an investment. I doubt it will last until the end of the year, but if it does, think of it as "investing" $x for less than one year and looking at a 100% ROI (assuming he fails). Not too shabby.

Any other investment you could make, like those things you were talking about with your financial advisor, is going to require you to actually hand over the money, and no way are they going to return you 100% in a year.

If you don't trust him to hold the money and ship back double, which I totally understand, I'd be happy to escrow it for you. I'm sure he'd be cool with that.

[JDMcNugent7]

Ya well see if you can escrow the $, if so I'm in, and maybe up to $5k.

[Talking Poker]

Here is the official bet thread on PTP, so we can always find it easily. I'll put it in the first post too:


And yeah, I'm sure he'll let me escrow for you, but when you decide on a bet amount, tell me and I'll get him to book it.

[Wes]

I'm planning on beting 10k against basically ensuring that since i am a prop bet fish that i will lose. Escrow with tp?

[Wes]

and you have a lot of posts on that forum tp.

[MAYHEM45]

He's given up on this one obv.

[Talking Poker]

LOL, basically.

Nah..... every time you reserve shares and ship for shares and blah blah blah... the posts add up fast if you do a lot of staking. And I do a lot of staking.

[Talking Poker]

His response to your $10k post:

I'm gald, TBH... didn't really want to escrow that much anyway. Scaphism has like $120k invested in the site and is totally trustworthy, so no worries there.

Seriously though... you taking this bet just cost me $1000, didn't it???