Probability question

[Talking Poker]

Earlier in this thread, you said it was 74%. So, which is it?

I'm not certain I follow your exact math above (I don't know where you came up with those numbers nor do I understand why you changed from the flop to the full board), so let me ask you this: What's the probability of the fourth Ace in play GIVEN there are four Aces on the board? Please use the same "math" you used above to show me how this is also 37%, as I believe you claimed earlier in this thread (you said it's always 37%, regardless of what comes on the flop).

As for agreeing to disagree, I don't see how we could agree to do that. There are right and wrong answers here.

I'm also surprised more people haven't weighed in on this thread. Is it really over everyone else's head, or do they just not care?