BlackJack @ PartyPoker

[Talking Poker]

That's well and good, but don't you think you are putting just a little too much weight into the assumption that the dealer is holding a face card? What if the dealer was holding a 5 - once again, the "idiot" just saved you.

Better yet - MUCH more importantly... Surely you will at least agree with this: If the chances of a bust card coming next are 8:5 when the bad players takes it, aren't those STILL the exact same chances of a bust card coming when the dealer takes the NEXT card??? Of course they are. THAT is the point. The bad player's action doesn't affect the dealer's hand (in the long run - it's a complete wash). All he is doing is hurting himself.

[SirFWALGMan]

Wow. TP Agreeing with me. Hmm. And who is this rookette22 person? Man I have been away too long. I like your style!

[2Tone]

After your cohort hits, 410 cards remain. If he or she gets a two or three, one less is left for you; your chance of pulling either of these is then 63/410 or 15.36 percent. Conversely, if he or she draws a different rank, your prospect of receiving a two or three is 64/410 or 15.61 percent. Overall, the chance you'll get a two or three is (0.1557 x 0.1536) + (0.8443 x 0.1561). This equals 15.57 percent, as it was when the other player stood.

This example shows that your companion's decision changes the structure but not the value of the expectation for your hand. Similar analyses yield identical conclusions for any conditions. So, unless you think occult forces order the cards in a shuffled shoe, previous players' actions don't affect your chances.

[Talking Poker]

Math is cool. Well done.

Why I try to explain things with (fairly simple) logic, rather than with google where someone else has done all the work for me, I will never know

The first two paragraphs of that article are great:

We rest our case.

[eejit101]

Im not gonna argue, i hate [arty BJ, thats a fact, live BJ is great, paradise BJ is great for some reason. The intensity this thread has gotten to sucks. lets leave it from me with.......

BJ is always at absolute best gonna be 49% in my(our) favour. Its minimal -EV, but millions of people play it online every day. Its an addictive game, with big highs and low lows, and the chance to win a shit load of cash in 5 minutes.

[nflchad]

I think this is an appropriate way to end this thread, and while it may pertain to sidebets the message remains the same...