Stars 200+15

[Govman6767]

I just ran into almost the same situation yesterday except I was chip leader
114k 100k 96k so I was not a big chip leader. Well not 2 to 1 like you said this one was. And it was not for 100k
But if you ask me would I rather have 1500 or 600 I was happy taking 1st place with 1100. 1100 in the bank is better than a chance at 600 and anyone who knows tournament poker knows that no matter what your chip lead is 3rd place could always be 2-3 hands away. I sacrificed 400 bucks for a guar. 1100 which is good.
It's not life changing money but when talking about 94 thousand dollars I think you'd take the chop too

[BlibbityBlabbity]

I think you made a good deal Gov, but I don't like the other one above very much. With THAT much of a chip lead, unlewss they felt they were outmatched. I would go by the percentages that you will get unlucky enough to lose your lead. With a 10-20% lead I think it is safe to say you could easily lose your lead in one hand. A deal is not a bad idea here.

In the other situation....What if the 2:1+ chip leader had NOT taken the deal of essentially an even split. They played a few hands and the chip leader lost two hands and essentially evened out the stacks. NOW they all decide to make a deal and the deal would be.....THE SAME SPLIT.

If a deal is to be made there, it HAS to be weighted to the chip leader to be fair. They DO have a distinct advantage.

[jillaj]

I agree no way I am doing that deal with a 2 to 1 chip lead. Of course I doubt will be in that position any time soon.

[Govman6767]

I agree with you people BUT... you could have 100 to 1 chip lead and still lose
remember the heads up championship with Esfandiari and Lednerer ???

If I had a 2 to 1 lead I would be wary about making a deal but like someone said this might be life changing money. Someone living paycheck to paycheck with 3 grand in the bank sees 100k as a100k and no matter how good your doing if you know you can bank 100 grand your going to do it because even though the chance of only getting 70k or so is real small it's still a possiblity.

P.S. If your living paycheck to paycheck Poker is not a game you should be playing
Unless your REAL good at it

[BlibbityBlabbity]

I would say you should treat the decision to make a deal like any other hand at the table. Generate percentages (based on your chips vs other players, your skill level vs other players, how you feel) and then rate the deal vs what you assign as your chances of doing better. Leaving money on the table because there was a 10:1 chance that you would get 3rd is not a reason for making a bad deal any more than folding AA would be if the other player told you they had KK (leaving you in 3rd place if they catch a K or a backdoor flush/stright). You have a greater chance of winning and therefore should either be compensated for that greater chance or not take the deal.

I can see where the amount of money is great enough in this case where people could easily get overwhelmed by the prospects of "losing" $40,000 if they get unlucky (I know I would be), but this decision, like any other, SHOULD be made based on what the RIGHT play is for the situation.

[JDMcNugent7]

I was watching this final table too and couldnt beleive the chip leader was making this deal. Even for that much $ with that kind of chip lead there is no way im making such an even $ deal.