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Old 03-20-05, 09:39 PM
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This is exactly correct, and might be the "piece" you are missing right now. Think about it like this.

All things equal (stack sizes, blinds, reads, blah blah blah), let's say all you do is call all in when you are an 80% favorite to win the hand.... 80%! Do you think you are going to win the tourney?

Well.... the first time you do this, you're an 80% favorite to double up. The second time, you're an 80% to double up as well, but if you look at both times together, you're only a 64% favorite to still be alive (.8*.8=.64). Make this same play three more times and there's only a 33% chance you'll still be in the tourney! In other words, it's twice as likely you'll have been knocked out, instead of double up as a 4:1 favorite five times in a row.

So, what's the moral of this story? 3 things (IMO):
1. You need to accumulate chips so you don't get knocked out when you do lose big pots.
2. Playing small pots is a lot less dangerous that playing big ones.
3. If you do decide to call all in, you better be sure you are a BIG favorite. Because you're oging to get sucked out on eventually.

If you have trouble with the above points, stick to cash games. Pure percentage play is fine there, because you can reload when you get busted - which WILL happen.
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