Help me get the big picture (possibly long)

[stormswa]

yep great reason to switch to cash games IMO.

I dont remember any of this but if you say so, I used to be same way blowing through bankrolls after bankrolls till I got great advice from this forum and other ones.

good for you!

oh no where did this gibberish come from?

who cares? really its one hand, well 2 hands. Tournament poker is about long run not one single tourney. I can and have gone on longer runs then this where I dont cash anything. Its just part of tourney poker you either get used to it or dont play.

no luck plays a major part in MTT not MTT's, over the long run the better players will come out on top but in a single MTT the luckiest SOB in the world will win. But the good news is he feeds you in your next MTT playing that same dumb way.

WTF is your hurry? why do you need to win a ton now?

if you want to play cash games then yes learn them but dont think cash isnt swingy also. Same shit will happen at cash and if you are this emotional about a single tourney imagine how you are going to feel when a couple cash donkeys hit gutters on you.

[Penguinfan]

This was in reply to me saying I needed to win a specific hand at a specific point.

SWA, I think you missed my intention. I understand odds, variance and pot odds. What I think is missing from the equasion is you don't get to play the same scenario with the same player with the same cards and the same chips with the same thing on the line over and over until the odds bear you out and you are a long term winner.

When all your chips during any given tourney are in the middle, it doesn't matter how big a favorite you are, what matters AT THAT POINT AND TIME, is winning that hand.

When you get drawn out on they don't let you run it 10 times so you can win 8 of them, they run the cards exactly ONCE and you live and die with those results.

So the way you figure the long term +EV of any situation, it doesn't really matter if you lose that hand.

What is the "long term" anyway, 100 hands, 1000, 10,000, 100,000. I'm sure Phil Ivey has played a million hands, but thay still haven't let him go back to 2003 when the Main Event was 10 handed and all he had to do was dodge a huge suckout against Moneymaker when Ivey held 9's full. We all know Money hits the ace on the river and the rest is history.

Would Phil Ivey get his chips in in that spot EVERY TIME, you better believe he would, in the "long term" is it a good play, of couse. Have they let him go back and (at least be a huge favorite to) win a Main Freaking Event bracelet? No, and they are not gonna.

If they let me run my AA against your AK until one of us are homeless, of couse I will wish you luck sleeping on the street tomorrow, but until there is a way to win that hand WHEN IT COUNTS THE MOST luck will play a bigger part than anyone wants to admit.