I think I need a boost...

[Talking Poker]

So, I decided to set up a little Kelly Criterion calculation in Excel. I went the conservative route with all of my numbers:

For my bankroll, I didn't use all of it, but have it based on my 2008 HU SNG winnings plus a bit (less than that total I have online).

For my ROI, I used my 2008 number, and included that ridiculous run of turbos I played that knock down my non-turbo ROI a few percent.

Both my bankroll and ROI update automatically, so everything is recalculated after every match I play.

Then, rather than going with the straight KC number, I rounded it down (this coincidently will match ROI for HU play), and set high and low tolerances for where I think I'd be comfortable playing. I'm pretty sure going straight KC (losing half my roll 1/3 of the time) is would be too much variance for me to stomach, so I picked 20% KC and 50% KC for my low and high limits, intending to play within that Buy In range.

Now here's the funny thing, and I couldn't make this up if I tried. The numbers it spit out for me:

Low - $199.81
High - $499.53

Well, isn't that ironic?

Going by the letter of the law, my next match should be a $200 one and if I win that, I should immediately move to $500 (the numbers will adjust up slightly). Of course, that doesn't count the juice, which needs to be counted.

Funny thought how it came out basically saying I should be at the crossroads I feel like I'm at.