I think I need a boost...

[Windbreaker]

I think your logic is correct.

Although I wouldn't necessarily interrupt everything the same way.

- You have no idea what your ROI is at the $500 level, because you haven't had a significant sample size at that level. So you won't know what your "ideal" bankroll should be.

- Technically, since your bankroll changes as you play (either + or -), you should be changing levels as you go. So if you're on a downswing, you technically should be going to a lower level.

- Also this method is volatile. If you keep the same bet size: your bankroll will halve before doubling 1/3 of the time. That may not be a very good thing if you tilt.

Also your statement -

"By doing so, there is a 1/3 chance that you will halve your roll to $500 before doubling it to $2000 (implying that there is twice as good a chance of you doubling your roll before cutting it in half)."

Isn't quite true. According to KC, you should never bust your roll....because your Bankroll changes, thus your bet size changes. (Not really practical in poker because your ROI isn't constant, and players may not be willing to grind microlimits if it came down to that). That statement says, 1/3 of the time you're going to halve your bankroll before you eventually double it. It doesn't mean you will double 2/3 of the time before halving your bankroll.

I think it means that your bankroll will always eventually double - assuming the following to be true:

- ROI is constant
- Your bet size is = to the KC all the time
- And that your bet size can be small enough where you can continue to place the bet.

***I don't know if everything I wrote is necessarily correct.

[Talking Poker]

Good stuff.

[Talking Poker]

So, I decided to set up a little Kelly Criterion calculation in Excel. I went the conservative route with all of my numbers:

For my bankroll, I didn't use all of it, but have it based on my 2008 HU SNG winnings plus a bit (less than that total I have online).

For my ROI, I used my 2008 number, and included that ridiculous run of turbos I played that knock down my non-turbo ROI a few percent.

Both my bankroll and ROI update automatically, so everything is recalculated after every match I play.

Then, rather than going with the straight KC number, I rounded it down (this coincidently will match ROI for HU play), and set high and low tolerances for where I think I'd be comfortable playing. I'm pretty sure going straight KC (losing half my roll 1/3 of the time) is would be too much variance for me to stomach, so I picked 20% KC and 50% KC for my low and high limits, intending to play within that Buy In range.

Now here's the funny thing, and I couldn't make this up if I tried. The numbers it spit out for me:

Low - $199.81
High - $499.53

Well, isn't that ironic?

Going by the letter of the law, my next match should be a $200 one and if I win that, I should immediately move to $500 (the numbers will adjust up slightly). Of course, that doesn't count the juice, which needs to be counted.

Funny thought how it came out basically saying I should be at the crossroads I feel like I'm at.