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Old 09-08-06, 08:58 AM
Govman6767 Govman6767 is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Washington State
Posts: 216
Govman6767 has between 10 and 49 Rep Points
Default Math and a Lifetime

Seeing as I have nothing to do in Iraq but think here is something I put to you.

Flip a coin odds say you have a 50/50 chance of either heads or tails coming up. Okay you flip it 20 times and you get 15 heads and 5 tails. Flip it 40 times you get 30 heads and 10 tails. Now according to the law of probabilities the more times you flip the coin the closer you should come to 50/50.

So you flip the coin 1million times 520,000 heads and 480,000 tails which is much closer to 50/50 than the 30 to 10 proposition after 40 flips.

Now let's throw in a Poker prospective. You have ESP (Pre-flop only) And the only hand you are willing to play is AA against and underpair KK-22 and you only play when you know you will be heads up All-In against this person.

You are a major fav here 3-1 or 4-1 does not matter could be 20-1 the point is that [b]Even though you are a major favorite ALL THE TIME. [b] With pure chance being involved over the course of your lifetime for whatever that reason may be you will only be involved in a finite # of hands as opposed to being able to play this hand for 500 years 1000 years etc.

Logically speaking if you played this hands 10000 times in your lifetime you may have only won this hand 3000 times out of 10000 times. Luck speaking this would be the worst run of cards or numbers one could ever think of. But mathmatically speaking it could just be that the hand had to be played 1million times for you to achieve an average of 750,000 wins and 250,000 losses.

The point i'm trying to make is if you took a poll amongt ANY poker player and told them you can have AA against an underpair all-in preflop It's a poker players dream and the poll would show that problably every person would say that the player would be a quote unquote "Winning Player" while at the same time over the course of that players poker "lifetime" he literally got destroyed mortgaging his house, the car, selling his kids into slavery whatever.

Point is he would be considered a Winning style player but never have any profit to show because the law of probablity has not caught up with him yet.
And due to a finine #of years in someones life he will never show a profit.

So can it be said that even a winning player style or a winning player in the short term will in fact NEVER WIN. ??

Guys I'm not plato here and I was really really bored Iraq was quiet today in my region I was just wondering what you think call it really bored logic
 


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