Do some make it too hard, or do I over simplify?

[Penguinfan]

This post may get too long, so sorry for that, but I THINK it may go in a decent direction. I was reading a thread at another forum (gasp) about SNG play. I'll try and just post the jist of it instead of going E=MC2 like they did.

My main question is simply becasue the answer seemed very obvious to me, and maybe thats why I am a very average player, but maybe I am not taking the actual true theory of the game serious enough. This may be the case since I can't be as unlucky as I think I am, I must be doing something wrong.

To give you a reference point, I am currently up $2378 for the year to date playing mostly small buy-n SNG's, some MTT's and a bit of PLO8.

OK, the conversation in question was about 4-handed play in a higher buy-in SNG when the UTG player (6000) who is in second place with two small stacks at the table gets dealt KK. Blinds at 100/200 with the two smaller stacks folding here (they have 1200 each), Hero had raised to 1000 and the big stack (11000) pushes all in.

The thread took a direction in which a lot of math was discussed about what place he would finish in X number of times based on each action and thus putting a value on each action. The final outcome was that folding here was as valuable as calling the all-in since he would bust out often enough without guaranteeing a first place finish when he wins the hand, this considering he already has second locked up for the most part.

Another way of looking at that hard to read statement is the value of improving by playing and winning the hand was not enough to justify getting the bubble since a second place finish was just as likely either way.

I'm gonna be real honest, non of the above has ever entered my though when I was in that spot, I auto call every single time without giving it another thought.

Are they making this much harder than it needs to be, or is this part of the game I am missing and thus the leak I am looking for?