How are you planning to force the flops? If you deal the flop first, I don't think that's a reasonable simulation. The best way to simulate would be to deal some huge number of hands, and only choose the ones where AAA came on the flop.
I think in the end we've arrived at the same answer. I said 40% when I used the conditional probability formula. Your mistake, which I have to admit I didn't catch, when fixed comes up with 40% as well.
That is correct. With more then one card, though, you can't use the easy 4/49*20 calculation - that's where you have to get into the combinations.
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06-05-06, 03:22 PM
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