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#2
11-06-07, 03:17 PM
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Late tourney situations are close analogues to SNGs. The math of poker is such that long negative streaks happen. When you play correct ICM - type strategy you often end up either getting all your chips in as a small favorite (Pair vs 2 overs, AJ vs KQ, etc.) because based on the size of the blinds vs stack size, you know you can't sit around and wait for the times you're a bigger favorite.
Bottom line, the long run is a lot longer than you think. You may still be playing close to optimal bubble strategy but are caught in a short-run (50-100 tourney) fluctuation.
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