Help me get the big picture (possibly long)

[Penguinfan]

I think it may be time for me to give up on MTT's and learn how to play cash, the problem is I am a horrible cash player, possibly the worst on the internet.

Many of the original members know me as someone who blows up when the best hand loses and it took me a long time to understand that when AA loses IT IS part of the game. Others may remember me for blowing by roll on that Missouri game a while back, meh.

After taking some time to really (at least try) understand the game I thought I had a handle on things and was actually doing OK (by my standards) at low limit MTT's. OPR can back me up on that, despite a horrid recent couple of weeks I am still on the positive side the last three months.

I am afraid what I have finally learned is you can't learn enough to win, it actually is more a game of luck than any of us want to admit, and that sucks.

Two different examples to illustrate my point:

Last night I am chip leader with 90 players left out of 1100+ and have 4x what anyone at my table has. In the course of four or five orbits I bust out losing pre-flop all-ins with KK vs A2, QQ vs JJ, KK vs A10 and AK vs KJ. I guess it's debatable, but I think I played pretty good to that point only to bust out with a $5 profit for over three hours playing time. ALL of those players got it in bad and doubled up (except for the last guy who knocked me out), and the only reasonable hand among them was the JJ.

Example two: Just after the money bubble and I have a below average stack and am willing to take a risk to double up. I flop an open ended straight flush draw with two overs and have to call all my chips off after the flop. I call and the board bricks out and I bust, again picking up a couple dollars for two and a half hours or so.

My point being if I catch a card or they don't catch a card the payouts quite possibly could have been MUCH different and I don't think the skill level changes at all to have that happen. Luck just plays too much of a part in MTT's.

Now, for my real point, what am I missing? I see others who make a decent bankroll at MTT's time after time, what am I missing? Yes, I know the donks calling off their stack against me with A2 will eventually go broke. I don't have time to wait for eventually, I needed to win THAT hand THAT TIME.

Are MTT's just too much of a luckfest to consider playing on a daily basis? Is it possible for an MTT player to learn to play (gulp) cash games? Should I maybe take up building model rockets instead?

[Invigilator]

The role of luck in a MTT will change as the field gets smaller and smaller, because the blinds keep cutting away at your M.

The way you read situations changes as this happens, because betting, calling, shoving ranges change as # of BB in your stack decreases.

You are right in that winning a MTT probably takes more "luck" than having a winning session in a ring game. As you approach the end of a MTT, you have to get more of your stack in, in increasingly marginal situations.

Shifting over to cash games might help. Luck is there, but the blinds don't increase, so the role of stack size isn't as wildly fluid. You still have to play a short stacked player differently than a big stack, but the blinds won't be a dynamic factor in that over time.

PT#'s & HOH & HOCG FTW!

[thrash1294]

Are MTT's just too much of a luckfest to consider playing on a daily basis? Is it possible for an MTT player to learn to play (gulp) cash games? Should I maybe take up building model rockets instead?


THis is a great question I seldom play mtts .But I very intrested in what you mtt player think.

My personal opinion is it take both luck and skill, more skill but you have to win a few coin flips along the way with playing solid poker

[PShabi]

Honestly,

You don't truly understand variance and/or sample size as it relates to poker especially MTTs.

[stormswa]

Pshabi hit it dead on here.


I have gone on much worse swing then you on much longer sample sizes, its life as a tourney player. You either get used to it or you dont play simple as that. If you cant handle going on week long swings then really you should not be playing tourneys. If you think you are going to cash like 50% of your mtts your either playing too nitty or just crazy.

I was one of the big stacks in last nights 70k and lost with AK vs 66 on a A65 flop, went from like 40th to out in 1 hand. oh well its part of the game get used to it, I wouldnt change anything I did in that hand because I will be getting paid off by AQ and AJ enough to make getting all the money in the middle profitable.

going to go through your whole post because im bored 1 second.

[stormswa]

yep great reason to switch to cash games IMO.

I dont remember any of this but if you say so, I used to be same way blowing through bankrolls after bankrolls till I got great advice from this forum and other ones.

good for you!

oh no where did this gibberish come from?

who cares? really its one hand, well 2 hands. Tournament poker is about long run not one single tourney. I can and have gone on longer runs then this where I dont cash anything. Its just part of tourney poker you either get used to it or dont play.

no luck plays a major part in MTT not MTT's, over the long run the better players will come out on top but in a single MTT the luckiest SOB in the world will win. But the good news is he feeds you in your next MTT playing that same dumb way.

WTF is your hurry? why do you need to win a ton now?

if you want to play cash games then yes learn them but dont think cash isnt swingy also. Same shit will happen at cash and if you are this emotional about a single tourney imagine how you are going to feel when a couple cash donkeys hit gutters on you.

[Penguinfan]

This was in reply to me saying I needed to win a specific hand at a specific point.

SWA, I think you missed my intention. I understand odds, variance and pot odds. What I think is missing from the equasion is you don't get to play the same scenario with the same player with the same cards and the same chips with the same thing on the line over and over until the odds bear you out and you are a long term winner.

When all your chips during any given tourney are in the middle, it doesn't matter how big a favorite you are, what matters AT THAT POINT AND TIME, is winning that hand.

When you get drawn out on they don't let you run it 10 times so you can win 8 of them, they run the cards exactly ONCE and you live and die with those results.

So the way you figure the long term +EV of any situation, it doesn't really matter if you lose that hand.

What is the "long term" anyway, 100 hands, 1000, 10,000, 100,000. I'm sure Phil Ivey has played a million hands, but thay still haven't let him go back to 2003 when the Main Event was 10 handed and all he had to do was dodge a huge suckout against Moneymaker when Ivey held 9's full. We all know Money hits the ace on the river and the rest is history.

Would Phil Ivey get his chips in in that spot EVERY TIME, you better believe he would, in the "long term" is it a good play, of couse. Have they let him go back and (at least be a huge favorite to) win a Main Freaking Event bracelet? No, and they are not gonna.

If they let me run my AA against your AK until one of us are homeless, of couse I will wish you luck sleeping on the street tomorrow, but until there is a way to win that hand WHEN IT COUNTS THE MOST luck will play a bigger part than anyone wants to admit.

[Invigilator]

Completely, utterly, totally, irrevocabbly, metaphysically and in most every way, out of your control.

You can influence what other people do, but you can't control it. So you adopt a strategy that plays to the statistical advantage and settle in for the long haul.

Let go of individual hands.

Stop ranting and start getting patiently analystical. The "patiently" and the "analystical" are BOTH essential parts.

[Invigilator]

Also, keep in mind that if you find losing MTT buy-in after buy-in to be psychologically draining, how will you react to playing 10 max or 25 max and dropping 100 bucks in 4-5 sessions?

It can be a very rough game emotionally, regardless of what game you play.

[stormswa]

hey I just lost with JT vs AA on a JTQ flop where all the money went in on the flop. He hit K on river, maybe I will quit playing tourneys with you....nah got my money in good he got lucky. BTW it was a $55 buy in and it hurt but I know im going to win there a lot of times and have a 5k stack.

[sjay2k]

All your posts are like this zzzzzz

[Penguinfan]

Thanks all for the replies (except Sjay, I guess because we disagree on one point about sports betting you have to make posts like that?)

Seems to me that you play well enough to make a final table you assume everyone at said final table has played well enough to get there as well and you still get KK ruined by A2o, very frustrating.

[Kurn]

I am afraid what I have finally learned is you can't learn enough to win, it actually is more a game of luck than any of us want to admit, and that sucks.

The best players are the best because they do not underestimate how much luck there is in poker. The whiny low limit table coaches are the ones who think poker is a game of skill the way chess is a game of skill. It isn't. The large luck factor in poker (about 35%) is what makes the game profitable. If the best players always won, there would be no long term profit.

Look at this as an example. If you had a 10 person tournament, with each player being highly skilled and each player playing their A game 100% of the time, the winner would be determined entirely by luck. That doesn't mean there's no skill. It means that skill can negate skill. You don't win most of your money in poker from your own skill, you win it from your opponents' mistakes. They have to luck out when they make mistakes about 1/3 of the time to keep coming back and continue making them.

Don't curse the luck. Embrace the luck.