Kill Phil Experiment (this is long - sorry)

[bdawg31]

So, i read Kill Phil. I am going to play around with this for kicks. Try a few Sit N Goes, try a few MTTs. See what happens. If anyone is interested, i will take notes and post what happens each time i try. The system is kinda involved to type out. I am using Kill Phil basic - and not leaving too much room for me to make decisions. For MTTs - i have decided to play my normal game early. I do okay accumulating chips in the first few rounds. If i drop down, or when the rounds get later - then i go into it. For the 1 table Sit N Goes - i use it from the start.

The system for early on in MTTs is a little different than the final table. I am going to use the 'online' system early on in teh SnGoes (first few levels) and then go to the 'final table method' later.

I was going to type out the moves - but that will take a while. Maybe i will edit that all on later. For now - i will just type out the hand groupings so you can get a feel for how they are ranked.

G1: AA-KK
G2: QQ, AK, AKs
G3: JJ-99
G4: AQs, 88-66
G5: AQ, AJs, ATs
G6: suited connectors, KQs-54s
G7: AJ-A10, KQo
G8: A9o-A7o, KJs, KJ, K10s, 55-22, A9s-A2s
G9: 1 gap suited connectors Q10s - 64s, A6-A2
G10: 2 gap suited connectors, Q9s-63s, K9s-K7s, Q8s, K10, Q10, J10, K9, QJ

I am going to try at least 5 $10 SnG and see what happens. I realize that is not even close to being a good sample size. But, my roll is not what it used to be. If i go 0-5, i will have to take a break from it.

[bdawg31]

Here are my notes - they are rough, i am just cutting and pasting them in without editing. It was interesting. I was surprised no one yelled at me - i will post all that too. (btw - i will do zero table chat while playing this method).

First $10 1 table SnG:
no hands played the first level (although) should
be noted that on very first hand JJ went all-in
vs AK.

Didnt play a hand the second level either.

Midway thru 3 level - 4 are out. I am 5th out of
remaining six.

Switched to 4-6 strategy (which is more aggressive).

no hands thru level 4.

Level 5 - with a raise and call - i push on SB
with 7s, they fold.

Raise and i push with Qs and he folds. There is
appx a 3 way tie for 4-6 in chips at this point.

Called a limp with J10s per the rules, flopped top
pair and got bet into hard. Folded. I would have
thrown out a token bet if checked to me.

Next level - 50/100 - still 6, i am at 1465 and 5th

I push with JJ and BB shows me A5 and folds.

Barely 'big' stack at this point. Blinds make me
go to 'medium status'.

I push at cutoff with 910s and all fold. Next
hand i push with KJoff and they fold. I get 44
the very next hand UTG and i fold it. I am back
to 'big' status at this point so that is correct.

The KJ was borderline big/medium status.

I am 4th out of 6 right now. About to go back to
medium when blinds come around. I have to fold
AJo on BB to a raise. I am now 'medium'. Still
4th out of 6.

I fold K10off to a raise and call. I am now 5th
out of 6. BB makes me 6 of 6. Two limpers and i
have A8 on SB - this is 'unclear' per the rule- i fold it.

I push on CO with A9off - all fold.

Blinds up again - i am 'medium'.

I re-raise with AQs on BB...tanks and folds.
I push on SB with A8s after all fold and BB folds

Q2off. I am alost 'big' at this point. I am 3rd
of 6 in chips.

I push in mid with QJs and all fold. I am
borderline big/medium. I balance that decision
based on position. Blinds put me back to medium.

I get A9 on button with a limper. I dump it -
borderline. I would have run into AK. Short is
gone - down to 5. I am 3rd.

I push on SB with A10off...run into AQ.... and i
am out. He tanked - he ALMOST folded it. And i

almost rivered a flush. Out 5th.

Conclusion after first attempt. The push definitely has some power to it. The guy almost dumped AQ after watching me play push or fold. Let see what happens with my second attempt....

[Reel Deal]

Can you explain the system a bit more? What are you supposed to do with each hand grouping?

[Talking Poker]

I think this is a cool idea for a thread, and will be interested to follow your progress - especially if you play 100+ of these. Will be very interested to see the results of the "system" then.

[bdawg31]

Its involved - but i will enter it at some point soon.

[bdawg31]

So, basically the same results. So far, in these two attempts - i have not doubled up once, and i have obviously not sucked out once. Both of those in theory should happen once in a while. Here are my rough notes on this 6th place finish:

2nd hand - i get AA on bb, limper, raiser, caller,
i push...all fold. Nice 200 pot on second hand
early.

One out early first round. Down to 9.

Blinds go up - i hadnt played another hand. I am
4th out of 8.

Blinds go up to 20/40 - have not played another
hand yet. I ma at 1580 - 4th out of 8.

I get AK after a limper - he folds. Have to be
warry of the UTG limper.

I get J10s on SB. UTG limps so rules say to fold
it, i do. I also have to fold 8s to a middle raiser.

Blinds up to 30/60

I get JJ on cutoff - no one in, they all fold. I
am 4th out of 7.

JJ on SB.....there is a middle raiser - i fold it
per the rules. Didnt like doing that.

I have to fold A8s on bb.

Blinds up to 50/100. We still have 8. I am 4th.

I need the 4-6 handed strategy to kick in.

I just fell into middle stack category, barely.

I get 8s on the SB. UTG limper so i call. BB
raises and i dump it.

I am getting low, but we are down to 7. One more
out and i go to 4-6 handed strategy. I get JQs on
SB - all limp to me, i push....tank...pretty big
stack finally folds.

Blinds are up to 75/150. Cut off i have to push
with 2s, i dont like it. They all fold.

We are still at 7 - pretty soon i am going to be
'short'. There are three people pretty low - and
then me.

Finally down to 6. I get AJs. I push from mid
pos and all fold. I get A8 utg next hand and push,
all fold (i didnt like doing that). I am still medium.

A8off on SB....i get called by 8s on the BB after all fold to me. No spiked ace. I am out 6th.

Again - no double-ups. No break on the A8 vs 8s. I think i will try one more tonight and then i am done. I will try to enter the strategies tomorrow or the next day.

[sjay2k]

???

[bdawg31]

So, i took 2nd this time. I didnt take great notes, but i will post what i have. This puts me at 4 attempts. I have one cash, two legimate bust outs and one bust out that was becaue i read my chart wrong (who knows what would have happened in that one).

Anyway - here are my rough notes.

4th Attempt:
-------------

I didnt take good notes this time. I got called twice before getting into the money. once my 10s got called by AK and i held up. The second time mid way thru - i got 5,6s on SB and had to push. The BB was about the same as me - and he surprisingly called with JQoff. I caught a 5 and 6 and busted him. That led to me getting called a name. I also got called by a really short stack with my AK vs Q4 off.

HU i was pushing with every hand when i was first to act. I was wary of when he limped in. If i was really weak, i just checked. If i had a hand that was in one of the groups - i pushed. I never got called (til the end). I pushed with 6,7 off and got called by 8.9 suited. We both missed the board and he won. What i found interesting about this was he called with 8,9s - there were times i had pushed with better hands. If i could have eitehr caught him one of those times, or sucked out on my not-so-big underdog - i would have won.

[eejit101]

surely maximizing profits early by playing hands strategically, then moving to the all in stealing mode at the end is more profitable. I mean if the blinds are 250/500 and i have 4k im not bothering raising, but for a 200 pot with AA??

I dont like that idea, but i will concede its interesting.

Edit - youve also said youve got "lucky" in all the games. Surely this is more to do with the outcome than the strategy? 56 vs KK? 56 vs JQ, not a big dog, but still lucky. Interesting

[Kurn]

The problem with SNGs in general is that any sort of loose strategic play early that does not result in chip accumulation places you in push/fold mode earlier than you'd like. The short levels force you to play ultra-tight except in LP early. If you can keep the discipline to do that and properly employ push/fold later you probably end up being just as effective a SNG player as you will by reading Kill Phil.

SNGs are variance nightmares - more streaky than any other kind of poker. OP is trying to judge the strategy by playing 5. I'd suggest that that's at least an order of magnitude too few to make a reasonable assessment.

[bdawg31]

I need to carve out a half hour of my time and type in the strategy of when to push and when to fold. Here is a few quick notes though.

The way the basic strategy is set up - you have four 'levels' of stacks - Huge ( greater than 30X cost per round), Big (greater than 10X cost per round), Medium (greater than 4x cost per round) and Small.

When you are 'huge' - then the hands you are pushing with are very limited - this is due to the fact that your risk/reward in terms of the blinds is not favorable. As your stack gets smaller, the number of hands you will play with increase. It also takes position into account.

Also keep in mind that the book describes four 'levels' of Kill Phil. The first level is super-basic - basically what Skalansky did with his "The System" in his tournament book. The second level - the one i am messing around with - take chip stacks and position into play. But, it is all mechanical. It is set up to give any shmuck a chance to win. The later levels in theory then incorporate mixing things up poker-wise. They give you flexibility in the system - i.e. being wary of a good player limping in early position (that might be trying to trap you). Calling with a hand like pocket 5s if your stack is 'huge' in late position (the system would say to fold). Things like that.

In theory, if i were to ever use this - i would just play my normal game early on. My problem in tournaments have not been in the early stages. Most of the time, i am able to accumulate chips in the first 3-4 rounds. And if i lose them, i am usually not in any worse shape than if i would do Kill Phil anyway (you are almost always going to get blinded off in the first few rounds of Kill Phil). Its the middle game that i think i suck at. And while one could say "be more aggressive" or "Be this or be that" - i can not get myself to do it properly.

[bdawg31]

Part of the theory is that your hands have value for their fold equity, the fact that sometimes you will get called by a lessor hand and sometimes you will get called by a better hand but you can still get lucky.

Think about big tournament hits you have had. I bet there was at least one or more hands where you got a break. Not because you made a blunder - but sort of worked out that way. I.e. your AK ran into KK - you semi-bluffed and got caught, but made your draw, etc. Same thing with this - you will probalby need to catch a break or two along with way.

[Kurn]

Long before there was Kill Phil, there was SNG push/fold theory that is the basis for the numbers in SNGPT. I can't for the life of me remember what the theory was called, but it was developed from a study done at USC.

The basis is late in a SNG the value of your hand is a combination of fold equity + showdown equity (duh), but when pushing for all (or almost all) of your opponents' stacks, fold equity is huge. So if you can accurately assess calling ranges, you can choose the correct push range that will aways be +EV.

[MAYHEM45]

I think what you are looking for is called ICM. It stands for Independent Chip Modeling.

[bdawg31]

Okay, these are my first ten. I played the system 99% true. Once in a while i would bend when the plays were boderline. For my next ten, i am going to play 'normal' for the first 4 rounds. Most of these i ended up at around 1250ish at the end of the 4th round. I am thinking i can average higher than that if i just play early. I will track where i am at at the end of round 4 and see.

Anyway:

1 win
1 2nd
1 3rd
2 bubbles with both times my hand being better when getting knocked out
1 me screwing up the system (resulting in a loss)

net results - loss of $10

[GeoffM]

How does this relate to your ROI when you play your game?

[Talking Poker]

This sample size isn't nearly large enough to draw any conclusions.

[bdawg31]

These are the second set of numbers. Slightly better results than the first ten. I have some random notes with some of my results.

---------------------------
10 SnG - $10 - 100% system:
---------------------------
1 - out (AK vs 9s early) -11
2 - 2nd +19
3 - lost (kk vs AK) -11
4 - 1st (i had 2 so's) +39
5 - 3rd +09
6 - out (AK vs AA early) -11
7 - 2nd +19
8 - 3rd +09
9 - bubble (flopped flsh -11
10- 1st (5s beat A8) +39

results

1st - 2
2nd - 2
3rd - 2
bubble - 1
net gain/loss: gain of +90

[Talking Poker]

60% ITM for that series is pretty nice.

Looking forward to the next 80 results or so.

[bdawg31]

this didnt go as well. But, i personally screwed up two of these, then didnt get any breaks. In theory, i should catch one or two breaks along the way. Still up a little overall - this is 30 total. At 50 i will post all my 50 numbers and take stock of where i am at. Right now after 30 SnGs - i am at +$30. So that is $330 invested to win $30.

I think my 2nd set of numbers was unusually high. I am hoping that this set is a bit low due to me f'ing up and cards not falling my way.

---------------------------
10 SnG - $10 - 100% system:
---------------------------

1 - 2nd +19
2 - out (QQ vs A9;AQvAK) -11
3 - out (bubble K10 v A4) -11
4 - out (5th KK vs A7) -11
5 - 3rd (i blew this) +09
6 - 3rd (KQ vs A10) +09
7 - out (78s vs calin A3o)-11
8 - out (A7s vs 10,10) -11
9 - bubble (66 vs KK) -11
i blew this one
10 - bubble (QJ vs AK) -11
rag flop, turn J - and the inevitable K on river
-----------------------------
totals
1 2nd
2 3rds
2 bubbles

loss of -40

[Talking Poker]

How do you blow something if you are following a system? Wouldn't that mean that the system blew it? Or are you not following it properly or misclicking or something?

[bdawg31]

When you get to be a HUGE stack - there is in theory some wiggle room for playing. So, if my chip count is like 6k and the blinds are 75/150 - then it suggest raising like 5-6x the BB as an 'advanced' strategy.

Since i am evidently a complete moron - i have to stick to push or fold. The problem with that when it is 3-4 handed and the stacks are that big compared to the blinds (if people get knocked out early) is that the continous push puts a lot less pressure on them since they can be very patient and wait and wait for a big hand.

But, i am going to go back to push or fold since for whatever reason over the last year i evidently lost any ability to play cards.

[omahilo]

I think personally that you are thinking about your poker game too much. I mean I like your experimenting with this and I like seeing the results you posted but still...

You went deep in the Aussie Million like a year ago, there is no way you are a bad player... You need to get back to your name and like TP said in another thread just start building your roll back up and play some 3 digit tournaments again because you are a pretty good tournament player and this is what you might need to get your game back to your old level.

[Talking Poker]

I've gone over this with bdawg time and time and time again. He's completely lost his confidence and he EXPECTS to lose over and over and over again. And it happens. It's very difficult to quantify, but I am a strong believer that your mental attitude (your expectations) affect your play which of course affect your results.

And I'm not talking about that ONE HAND where you take a bad beat after getting your money in with the best of it... I'm talking about the combination of ALL the hands - especially when we are talking about cash games. Tourneys are naturally going to have more variance with many more losses in between cashes.

[bdawg31]

I know that mental is a big part of my problem. Believe me - a year of ass kickings can where one down. I try to get refocussed. I try to get my confidence up. Ironically, when i start feeling semi-decent about my game - then i usually get it up the ass again.

I am just trying to grind out the low-limits and accumulate some rakeback so i can slowly get back into the swing of things.