Setting it all up...

Windbreaker · #1 08-29-05, 02:08 AM

2 Table 20+2 buy in. Final 3. Top 4 pay - $160, 120, 80, 40.

Blinds are 300/600. I'm second in chips - with about 11k, chip leader has about 14k, and third place guy only had about 3500 left.

I'm in SB with KK. Third place folded in from the button. I had been stealing a lot in the last few rounds, so I do the exact same thing as I've done in many hands previously and make it 1800 to go - and figure the BB will think it's one of the many steals I've done lately.

The big blind instantly goes all in - I know I'm ahead and make the call. He flips over 88. He makes a full house to knock me out.

Taking a look at the pay out structure, I think I might have made a mistake. I created an uncessairly huge pot by raising so much preflop. It would probably have been better to not get too involved with the other big stack and wait for the small stack to bust out to win another $40.

By making the call I have about an 80% chance to take a huge chip lead and likely go on to win $160. 20% of the time I lose and end up with just $80.

If I made the pot small, and found a way to get away from the hand. It would have been more than likely that I could have placed at least second for another $40 and still had a shot to win.

So I guess the question, is how does the pay out structure affect your decision in SNG's/MTT's?

How much difference in prize money is required to make a fold knowing you're the 3:1 or 4:1 favorite the correct play?

Zybomb · #2 08-29-05, 02:27 AM

Im happy to get my money in with KK here -- ESPECIALLY down to 3 players. Im playing to win -- if I get calledandget unlucky so be it, i'lltake the 80% chance of being the new chip leader and 20% of goin out in 3rd every time.

GeoffM · #3 08-29-05, 10:30 AM

I agree with Zy.

If you KNOW for sure you are ahead, you have to pop in as much as possible here. He basically has 2 outs to beat you (not including any possible fluky running cards that would complete a flush or straight).

Seems like a no-brainer to me.

Windbreaker · #4 08-29-05, 02:44 PM

I don't question the decision to call with KK here. My question was related directly to the payout structure.

If there was a tourney where first place paid $100, second place pays $90, and third place pays $30. To me, it's a clear mistake to call even with aces against someone that bust you out - if someone is really short on chips. You have the opportunity to take a massive chip lead by calling...and in most situations will indeed double up. But if you simply fold you can easily finish second and earn another easy $60.

However, my payout structure was linear.

1st - $160
2nd - $120
3rd - $80

So with the chip counts at around 14k, 11k for you, and 3.5k for the 3rd place guy....would it be better better +EV to go for moving up a spot than to try to win it all?

What difference between prize money and chip counts does it make it a more +EV decision to fold and avoid confrontation with the chip leader?

If the payout was non-linear and was stacked towards the winner, it's a no brainer call.

GeoffM · #5 08-29-05, 02:51 PM

I would like to think it has more to do with the player's personal preference than +EV. I like to win for the glory, and the cash is just a nice bonus.

JDMcNugent7 · #6 08-29-05, 05:28 PM

I personally would be playing to win, and would def. call with the KK. The payout structure would have to be alot bigger differnece in steps for me to basically lay down and let the other people get blinded out like you're talking about. I mean it's not like hes guarenteed to get 3rd if u layed this down anyway. He could easily come back other ways too. I think this is def. the best chance to knock him out, move up in money, take the chip lead, and the best play in the long run. I'd do it every chance i had.