NFL Week 8

[Kurn]

Two picks, plus suicide again this week.

Green Bay +6 @ Jets

Simply, that's too many points against a team that can move the ball. Despite all the hoopla over Rex Ryan's defense, the Jets rank 20th in forcing negative pass plays (sacks & Interceptions) and 24th in opponent's 3rd down conversions.

Indy/Hous OVER 51

I'd like to be able to give the points with the Colts in this revenge game, but their own defense is not even close to great. Despite all the ooh-ing and ahhh-ing over their great pass rushing D-ends, they rank 22nd in opponents negative pass plays and 19th in defensive passer rating, not to mention that they are 28th in opponents' yards per rushing attempt. Sounds like a shootout to me.

SUICIDE: San Diego

OK. This is a gambling play, a great strategic choice if it pans out, a donkey call if it doesn't. Kansas City is at home vs the Bills. 16 left in my pool, 12 of whom (myself included) who can pick the Chiefs. Why not me? Something in my gut wouldn't let me. maybe its just a basic aversion to the chance of elimination by "going with the crowd", but I spent all week looking for a different pick. I settled on the Chargers for 2 reasons. 1) They need this game, Tennessee does not. 2) The eyeball test. San Diego is not ranked #1 in both offense and defense for no reason. I watched every snap last week against the Pats. This is a very good team who gets after the QB better than either the Ravens or the Jets. They stifled Brady and Vince Young ain't Tom Brady. Phillip Rivers > Vince Young. The only worry is that Jeff Fisher > Norv Turner.

One aside - before the season started, I bet a guy at work lunch that when the Vikings came to town, Brett Favre would not be the starting QB. Now I don't care if I lose, as I think the Vikings are weaker with him playing. besides, they play him at least one series to keep the streak alive, even if they really have no intention of him playing the whole game.

[Reel Deal]

Nice picks, especially SD. I have several friends who flammed out of their suicide pools this week. How many dropped from yours?

[Talking Poker]

I'm still in my suicide pool and I think we are down to 18ish now. I reluctantly took KC this week, because I knew Dallas was a huge trap, and I want to save SD for a few weeks from now (I think they are playing CAR or something - I forget exactly, but remember wanting to save them)

Not sure how much longer I will be able to pick against the Bills. I see they are playing CHI at home this coming week. Might be a good time to take the Jets, even though the Lions are the most underrated team in the NFL, IMO.

[GTDawg]

Vikings waive Moss.

[Kurn]

In 48 hours he'll be a Seahawk completing a very odd approximation of a WR swap with the Pats.

[Talking Poker]

I think I might go with ATL (at home vs. Bucs) this week....

[Kurn]

Funny, I took San Diego and not KC for the same reason you did the opposite. In my pool, 4 of the 16 left after last week already took KC and I assumed more than half who still could would (7 took them). Now I have a team in my pocket who most opponents do not have. A team that plays in a home venue known to be tough on road teams, is well coached (which SD is not) who can run the ball and protect a lead.

I'm also thinking of the Jets for next week. i watched almost their entire game, and think they played much better than the score. Some teams come out of the bye flat and a little off. Ihate taking road teams, but next week may have to be an exception. The only other game that looks remotely possible would be the Vikings vs the Cardinals.

[Kurn]

5 dropped yesterday, 4 on the Jets, 1 on the 'Skins. 1 has the Colts tonight. Down to 11, or 10 if the Colts lose.