30 day $5k from 5.50 and under SNG prop bet...

[Talking Poker]

Is it possible for one person to win $5000 in 30 days, playing $5.50 and less SNGs ONLY, and excluding 180 mans?

I'm thinking no.

So what kind of odds what you put on it? 3:2? 2:1? 5:1? What?

[Windbreaker]

This would definately be extremely hard. I play 5 table SNGs, where my ROI is usually a lot greater than for a 1 table SNG. My best ever 500 SNG stretch gave me a return of slightly above 50% ROI....this was at $60 dollar buy ins. In one month I'm guessing I can get in about 1200 SNGs. At that rate, there's no way you would get it for $5.50s.

Even though the competition would be a lot easier, the only way you can possibly make that much is to run good for a long stretch and play high volume. Unless it's a SNG icons guy or one of the more respected SNG players, I don't see many guys can pull this off and even if they do....the prop bet must be huge in order for them to even want to follow through.

The odds I would give, depends on the player. Some guys can play 24 tables at once....those guys....I would give a lot less action, than a regular joe. For a normal player...3:1 ball park would be my guess.

[Talking Poker]

Any other thoughts on this?

Dude is offering 2:1 that he can do it. In other words, bet $200 against him to win $100 if he fails. All money is being escrowed ahead of time and he's even got a webcam set up.

I'm in for AT LEAST $200, but I'm seriously considering making this a big bet.

I think even a SNG sicko could only pull this off one month in 4 (3:1), at the best.

is the thread, if anyone wants to read more about it or get in on the action. He's only going to run this if he stands to win at least $5k ($10k wagered), and it's not there yet.

[2Tone]

Do you know/trust the guy? Winning that amount at those stakes in 30 days strikes as extremely unlikely. I'm shocked he'd be offering 2:1 -- 8:1 to 10:1 would seem more realistic to me.

My only caution would be the "too good to be true" factor and the amount he wants to bet -- $5k is decent amount, enough to go through a fair amount of trouble to set people up for. What is the risk this is an elaborate scam?

[melioris]

I agree with 2tone, this has to be some kind of angle shoot.

[Talking Poker]

0% chance it's a scam in the stealing people's money regard. He's having one of the mosty trusted people on the site hold all money (both sides) in escrow. That guy has like $44k staked out right now, so if he were to roll, the 5 or 10 or 15k from this would be fully recoverable from his investments.

So it's a 0% roll risk.

The only thinkg I'm worried about is if he has figured out some sort of loophole that is going to allow him to do that that no one has thought of. I just have to think SOMEONE would have figured it out by now. There was concern about the 180s, so he said he won't play any of them.

If anyone wants action on this and doesn't have an account there yet, I can do it for you (this will likely start before you get your account approved to post there). I'm in for $200 to win $100 right now, and amd still seriously considering increasing it. I keep thinking I must be missing something, but can't figure what it is.