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Old 02-10-06, 12:19 PM
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Don't take this wrong, but I honestly don't see how this is so hard for people to understand. In this example, the guy would need to get exactly the Qh to win the hand. So, with 45 unknown cards left after the flop, his odds are 44:1 against and they will be 43:1 on the river. His total odds are 22.5:1. This is called a one outer, which is a whole lot easier to hit than perfect perfect.

Now, had your example been this:
You have 8h 9h
Opp has Kh Ah
Flop comes 6h 7h 10h

Here, your opponent needs to get exactly the Jh AND exactly the Qh in order to win the hand - the order they come doesn't matter. So, that's perfect perfect, meaning the odds would be exactly the same as the hand I posted.

It doesn't matter if the person needs the two remaining Aces or the exact two suited cards or the two remaining 4s for that matter (33 vs 44 after a 332 flop). Exact two cards = exact two cards, no matter what two cards they are. The probability of getting exactly a Qh is the same as getting exactly a 4d, for example.

The only real difference here is that at least this guy has a reason to be in the hand, with an Ace high flush and all. He should at least THINK he has a good hand.
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